Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

Race 5

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five Furlongs on the Turf

1- Glass Slippers (GB)

The reigning champion in this race has been a little flat in 2021, finishing third in three races in Europe. Trainer Kevin Ryan gave her a similar schedule to the one from 2020 to prepare her, but she hasn’t been nearly as sharp. Her win last year was more a result of fortunate circumstances than her ability, and she’s an easy one to fade this time around.

2- Emaraaty Ana (GB)

My technique in Breeders’ Cup races is to find a runner rounding into condition, and this gelding seems razor sharp. His most recent performance in the Betfair Sprint Cup was his first G1 win and he won it with a career-best 120 Timeform Rating. He seems a little more comfortable at six furlongs but has also been very effective at five. I would love to know how she handles turns, but the fact that that’s the primary concern is an encouraging sign.

3- Golden Pal

The trip to York in August wasn’t fortuitous, but this colt remains undefeated in the United States. He actually briefly lost the lead in the G2 Woodford last time out but dug down in the stretch and pulled away to win by two with a 93 BSF. It’s undeniable that he’s skating by a little on name recognition as the reigning BC Juvenile Turf Sprint winner, as his recent speed figures simply aren’t as sharp as others in here. But it’s also true that he’s the pick if things devolve into a foot race late. 

4- Lieutenant Dan

There isn’t much to dislike here. After more than a year on the shelf, this gelding began to run better than he ever has and rattled off three straight victories while stepping up in class. Familiarity with the Del Mar turf is an extremely important asset and he’s 2-for-2 on it and 3-for-3 at the distance. My one question concerns the quality of the fields he’s been running against, but hasn’t been the overwhelming favorite in any of his recent starts. He’s a contender.

5- Arrest Me Red

The three-year-old only has one performance that qualifies him for this race, and I have several questions. I don’t like that he improved at six furlongs and will now cut back in distance again. I also know for a fact that the field he defeated that day in the G3 Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational was not remotely close to the one he’ll face here. In addition, a front running trip like the one he found in that race is unimaginable in this spot. He’s a toss.

6- A Case of You (Ire)

Talk about getting good at the right time. This three-year-old was aimless at various points this season but has improved dramatically since August. His victory in the G1 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp last time out was one of the fastest preps in this field, as the 122 Timeform Rating could be more than enough to win. The issue is that he’s never really shown as much ability on a turn as he has in straight races. But the distance seems to be perfect and he could make some noise under the right conditions.

7- Charmaine’s Mia

This mare was rolling earlier this year but has tailed off as the season has worn on. More importantly, she doesn’t really seem to be as effective sprinting at shorter sprint distances.

8- Caravel

She was trending in the right direction with three straight victories over the summer, but she has turned up empty in her two most recent starts. A sixth place finish in the G3 Turf Monster at Parx is especially concerning, as new trainer Graham Motion likely dropped her in class in search of softer competition. The performance was so bad, in fact, that I’m actually questioning if Motion knows something I don’t as he enters her into a plainly unrealistic spot on paper.

9- Kimari

I’ve always liked this filly but haven’t seen enough of her as of late. She hasn’t raced since April and has raced exclusively on dirt in two starts this year. Those dirt races demonstrated that she was in form at the very least, and she has plenty of back class on the turf after a pair of successful visits overseas in 2019 and 2020. I have to admit that I’m enticed despite some obvious warning signs.

10- Gear Jockey

The 105 BSF he earned last time out is going to earn him some looks, but I have several reasons to discount that performance. The G3 Turf Sprint was at six furlongs, which means that he will have to cut back. More importantly, the Kentucky Downs track is also very quirky and sometimes produces fluke performances that cannot be easily repeated elsewhere. I think he’ll be overbet.

11- Fast Boat

Alright, it’s time for me to actually teach you nerds something. I’m just kidding; you’re not nerds, and many of my readers are older than I am and deserve my respect. But I do actually have an important tidbit here: the difference between five and a half furlongs and six furlongs on the turf may be the biggest half-furlong difference in all of racing. 

Because they are coming out of the same race, the G3 Turf Sprint, Gear Jockey and Fast Boat are making the same cutback from six to five furlongs. But the statistics plainly suggest that Fast Boat is significantly better at distances under six furlongs, making it a far more advantageous move. In the G3 Troy at Saratoga, Fast Boat defeated GJ impressively at five and a half furlongs with a 104 BSF. but when the pair stretched out to six furlongs on the oddly shaped Kentucky Downs course, GJ turned the tables and delivered a career-best 105 BSF performance. Now they’re returning to five furlongs around an oval, but GJ is 5-1 on the morning line while Fast Boat is 12-1. You do the math.

12- Extravagant Kid

A $1 million victory in the G1 Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan is always nice to see, but this hard-trying eight-year-old has been trending in the wrong direction ever since. After time off, he finally returned to the states in October after three starts overseas, but lost to Golden Pal in convincing fashion. Combined with the far outside post, it maybe simply be time to look elsewhere. 

Order: 9 11 3 4

This is an extremely tricky race, but I’m hesitantly siding with Kimari on the basis of Wesley Ward’s conviction. Fast Boat on the cutback is a very interesting option at a long price, and I’m willing to venture an exotic wager with him in mind. Golden Pal is undoubtedly talented, but I think his name will convince people despite some subpar speed figures recently. Lieutenant Dan is a pro that could easily stick around late.