Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Turf

Race 11

Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/2 Miles on the Turf

1- Rockemperor (Ire)

Is it a renaissance? After a long stretch of middling starts, he came back with the best performance of his career in a 15-1 upset of the G1 Turf Classic Invitational. In defeating fellow runners Gufo and Japan, he establishes himself as a contender from the East coast, but this is a whole different ball game.

2- United (SCRATCHED)

It’s an interesting strategy by Richard Mandella to keep this gelding at lower stakes levels for most of the year, but it has been overwhelmingly profitable. He has won seven of 11 starts since 2020 and loves the Del Mar turf, but there’s little reason to suspect he’s prepared for this level of competition.

3- Domestic Spending (GB) (SCRATCHED)

He’s the best turf horse in the United States and he might still be overmatched. There’s very little to dislike about his form; the 106 BSF he earned in the G1 Manhattan seems repeatable and I can forgive a photo finish defeat in the G1 Mister D. last time out. He has proven to be a formidable runner over the Del Mar turf as well; my only qualm is that I struggle to visualize him taking down competition like Tarnawa at a distance he has never tried before. 

4- Astronaut

A win in a blanket finish isn’t enough to convince me that this colt is ready for this. The field he defeated in the G2 Del Mar Handicap was not nearly as competitive as this one, and his lack of experience at the G1 level is concerning.

5- Tribhuvan (Fr)

With an uncontested early lead, there are few turfers in the U.S. who can run this gelding down. But his performance in the G1 Sword Dancer demonstrated one of two things: that he can’t handle the longer distance or that he’s a one-dimensional speedster at this level. Either way, losses against Domestic Spending and Gufo demonstrate that he isn’t quite up to par, though a wiring effort is always in the cards.

6- Acclimate

It seems like the two front runners will be breaking next to one another. This 7YO gelding has one mode and he never wavers from it, which means viewers will likely see a lot of him in the early stages of the race. The problem is that he seems severely outclassed by other runners here.

7- Walton Street (GB)

He obviously wasn’t facing top competition when taking the G1 Canadian International, but he looked good doing it. Earning a 110 BSF in his stateside debut obviously turned some heads, but there are some issues. He still hasn’t won against the very best in either hemisphere despite some romps at lower levels. That being said, relatively short losses to runners like Mishriff and Torquator Tasso overseas demonstrate that he isn’t far off either. Maybe he’s getting good at the right time.

8- Broome (Ire)

In the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, thus Irish-bred proved to be a step below the best Europeans. That would be acceptable in nearly any other American turf race, but some of those same opponents are following him overseas for this one. He’s a longshot with a class edge.

9- Sisfahan (Fr)

The three-year-old has put together a very tidy season in Germany this year, taking the G1 Deutsches Derby in July before stepping up and competing with older horses this fall. In September, he finished a length behind Torquator Tasso, who went on to shock fellow runner Tarnawa in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at 80-1 odds the following month. I’m vaguely intrigued at a price, but I have to wonder if he simply needs more time to develop.

10- Yibir (GB)

He looked professional at Belmont winning from last to first in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational, but the speed figure came up light and the field was very weak in relation to this one. He raced a lot as a three-year-old in Europe but never faced older horses, let alone the very best in those ranks. I’m looking elsewhere.

11- Gufo

Before an odd run in the G1 Turf Classic Invitational, this colt seemed poised as a favorite in this race. But he was bumped early in that race, went to the front early and fought gamely before settling for third. Another performance like that wouldn’t be nearly enough to win here, but an improvement on his near-perfect run in the G1 Sword Dancer could be just enough. He’s the most compelling of the American runners by my standards.

12- Teona (Ire)

The three-year-old filly notched a huge revenge victory against Snowfall when taking the G1 Prix Vermeille last time out at 17-1 odds. Any victory in a $700,000 European stakes race will get the bettors’ attention, but I have reason to suspect that the restricted stakes wasn’t quite as strong as the field for this one. She will have to step up again to have a hope here, and while shipping her to California demonstrates confidence, I remain skeptical of her chances against the likes of Tarnawa.

13- Tarnawa (Ire)

Can the queen of County Kildare reign once more? The defending BC Turf champion looked brilliant last year in an upset victory over Magical and has run superbly since. But in her two most recent starts, the G1 Irish Champion Stakes and G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, she came up just short in close runner-up finishes. 

Despite the defeats, one of which came against recently retired superhorse St. Mark’s Basilica, she figures as an undeniable favorite in a crowded field.

P.S. Anyone who loves horse racing should go watch the Irish Champion Stakes on YouTube right now. St. Mark’s Basilica, Tarnawa and Poetic Flare put on a classic by any standard and it deserves American attention.

14- Japan (GB)

After a tumultuous 2020 season against the very best in the world, trainer Aidan O’Brien gave this horse a much easier slate in 2021. He continued to struggle, however, earning just two victories in six starts. His first start in the U.S., a runner-up finish behind fellow runner Gufo, was promising but his most recent starts was comparatively flat. He’s a weird runner with obvious upside, but the far outside post may prove to be the final nail in the coffin.

15- Bolshoi Ballet (Ire)

Alright, so I’m rushing some analysis for these also-eligibles. I love this guy but the speed figures aren’t there.

16- Channel Maker

If he was as good this year as he was last year, he wouldn’t be on the also-eligible list. But his days of contending with runners like Tarnawa seem to be over.

Order: 13 11 7 8

I adore Tarnawa (Ire) and believe she’s in an excellent position to make it two in a row at the Breeders’ Cup. In an odd turn, I believe her biggest rival will be an American, as Gufo has been running phenomenally well as of late. Walton Street (GB) and Broome (Ire) are both contenders as well, along with half the field.