The Breeders’ Cup Sprint is no less predictable than the other dirt race preceding it on this championship card. Just as Gamine and Life Is Good project to be easy winners earlier in the day, this race only figures to be competitive if Jackie’s Warrior falls over.
Race 8
Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
1- Following Sea
1 ⅛ miles in the G1 Haskell was ambitious and ultimately ill-advised from a racing standpoint, but this colt is clearly a promising sprinter. One can excuse a convincing defeat to fellow runner Jackie’s Warrior in the G1 Allen Jerkens, as he was rounding back into form. His performance in the G2 Vosburgh was excellent, but he got the lead to himself that day and never looked back. This isn’t new for the colt, as he clearly feels more comfortable vying for the early lead. With Jackie’s Warrior back alongside him in the starting gate, he may have to settle for a trip off the pace once more, which could hurt his chances as it did back in August.
2- Jackie’s Warrior
He didn’t turn out to be the Derby favorite this year, but there’s no doubt now that this colt is the real deal. With eight wins in 11 career starts, he has quickly become the best sprinter in the country with wins all along the East Coast. His two most recent starts have been the ones that will earn him heavy favoritism here, as he convincingly won the G1 Allen Jerkens and G2 Gallant Bob. The former victory came against the similarly talented Life Is Good, and the 107 and 110 BSFs he earned would be formidable against any field. He’s a very hard toss, even at prohibitive odds.
3- C Z Rocket
As we saw with Whitmore last year, it doesn’t hurt to have a late running style in sprint races with a lot of speed. But this 7YO gelding has been struggling for some time now and will need to improve dramatically to have any chance.
4- Matera Sky
He has had some very timely underdog performances throughout his career, finishing second in the 2020 Saudia Cup Sprint and 2019 G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. But he’s a wildly inconsistent runner and seems out of sorts anyway. Look elsewhere.
5- Aloha West
He lacks the class edge of some in here, but I always find that less important on dirt. He only has one start to his name that qualifies him for this race, but I really appreciated his runner-up finish in the G2 Phoenix. Fellow runner Special Reserve was forwardly placed early but hung on by a rapidly closing margin as Aloha West kicked into gear in the stretch. The race seemed to set up very well for closers, but there’s even more early speed in this one, so it really comes down to the dynamics of the Del Mar track. He’s one to consider underneath for those who believe the pace will fall apart.
6- Firenze Fire
What does this guy have left to give? Though he’ll forever be remembered for trying to take a chunk out of Yaupon in the G1 Forego, this six-year-old has raced 37 times in every big dirt race imaginable. Earlier this season, he notched two big wins in the G3 Runhappy and G2 True North, and his losing effort to Yaupon two back showed that he clearly has some fight left in him. But he has also appeared worn down in some of his more recent starts, which makes him a little difficult to consider here. This may be his last Breeders’ Cup though, so racing fans should appreciate him, even if bettors mercilessly toss the legend aside.
7- Lexitonian
What’s this guy’s deal? His performance in the G1 Met Mile was arguably one of the worst I’ve seen for a horse of his caliber. But he came back in the G1 Vanderbilt with an impossibly gutsy win over next time out winner Special Reserve, defending Sprint champ Whitmore and Firenze Fire. Then, he stumbled badly at the break in the G1 Forego and was essentially eased again. I don’t really know what to expect from him at this point, but what’s clear is that he does his best running on or near the lead, and that may be a tall order against Jackie’s Warrior and speedballs like Matera Sky.
8- Special Reserve
Small-time trainer Randy Morse lost this runner for $40,000 in an optional claiming event back at Oaklawn in February. In what may be the most savage claim I’ve ever seen, Michael Maker collected his winning 22-1 shot that day and has trained him up to a graded stakes winner. He has been eerily consistent in his last four starts and has not finished outside the money since Oct. 2020. Off a short layoff with the track conditions against him last time out, he still managed to take the G2 Phoenix with a 101 BSF. Of all the runners in the race not named Jackie’s Warrior, he is likely the one rounding into form best.
9- Dr. Schivel
When he won the G1 Bing Crosby with a 93 BSF back in July, I don’t think anyone considered him highly in this race. But he has since won the G2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship with a 103 BSF, which will put him in the running here. It was encouraging to see him beat a similarly weak field of California sprinters with more conviction this time around. But the dominant front running score he made that day will be virtually impossible to replicate here and the competition will be significantly tougher as well. He may be a little overvalued at 4-1 on the morning line, though his familiarity with the Del Mar track is still an asset.
Order: 2 8 1 9
The dirt races look a little chalky today, don’t they? I wish I could flex a little, but I can’t get around Jackie’s Warrior. He’s better than this field in nearly every sense, to such an extent that 6-5 is almost a steal on the morning line. Special Reserve and Following Sea are interesting options underneath, but they’ll have their hands full. I don’t believe Dr. Schivel is as good as he appears on paper, but his West Coast experience could come in handy.
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