Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Mile

Race 9

Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Turf

1- Master of The Seas (Ire)

The three-year-old colt was no match in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last time out, but that’s not such a big deal in this field. With the best European milers choosing not to ship, he becomes one of the more formidable foes from overseas. That being said, he seems to be trending in the wrong direction and hasn’t shown enough against older horses in two starts. The distance is right, but he may simply need more time. 

2- Smooth Like Strait

He has been scarily consistent this year, which is as much an asset as it is a curse in races like these. He has not finished outside the money since Oct. 20 of last year and has posted five straight triple-digit speed figures. That being said, he has lost two straight races to Mo Forza and will likely have to take a step forward to beat some of the others as well.

3- Space Blues (Ire)

It’s possible that there is no more visually appealing prep race in the entire Breeders’ Cup than this horse’s last start in the Prix de la Foret. In a 15-horse field, he flew home in a dominant showing for his second straight victory. It seems like he’s rounding back into form after a slight lull earlier in 2021, and while he has never gone beyond seven furlongs, I don’t have any reason to suspect a mile is beyond his scope.

4- Raging Bull (Fr)

This might be a stretch, but I think a mile is the right distance for this guy. In 15 starts at the distance, he has finished in the money on 11 occasions. He is capable of true brilliance, but it’s fleeting; his best performances have always been followed by duller performances. He hasn’t shown much in his three most recent starts, and at six years old, one has to begin to wonder if he has one more left in the chamber.

5- Vin de Garde (Jpn)

Between Japan and the UAE, he hasn’t won a race since Oct. 2020, though he has only run three times since. In his most recent start in a G2 stakes at Tokyo Racecourse, he was well beaten, though a runner-up finish in the G1 Dubai Turf back in March gives him some semblance of legitimacy. He’s classy and well-traveled, but I would have preferred a sharper prep.

6- Mo Forza

Outside of a dull effort in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, this runner has been perfect since Sept. 2019, winning eight starts on the West coast. The fact that the Breeders’ Cup is coming to his home track is fortuitous and puts him in an excellent position to succeed. The mile is definitely the right distance as well, and he managed to run down talented turfer Smooth Like Strait on the front end in two straight starts in small fields. The bigger field should only help a closer like him, and he seems capable of putting up the speed figure necessary to win here.

7- In Love (Brz)

Without his most recent start, this gelding would not be in this race. But beating the likes of Ivar and Order of Australia at 12-1 odds definitely got his name out there. The win was definitely solid and the speed figure was competitive, but it’s hard to imagine a runner getting a better trip. It’s not very sound handicapping logic, but my instincts don’t lead me to believe that he’s ready for this level.

8- Hit the Road (SCRATCHED)

The speed figures are nearly there, but he lacks a class edge and has finished third behind fellow runners Mo Forza and Smooth Like Strait in two straight starts. I struggle to see why he will suddenly be able to topple that pair along with a small cavalry of new challengers.

9- Mother Earth (Ire)

The class edge is overwhelming for this three-year-old filly. In her first start against males in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, she never challenged the undefeated Baaeed but still managed to run on for fifth. Since finishing second in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf last year, she has competed in eight G1 races and has finished in the money in seven of them. A step forward may be necessary, but it won’t take much.

10- Blowout

This mare seems to be stepping up in class gracefully and notched her first G1 victory in the First Lady at Keeneland last time out. I have two problems though. The first is that she’s a front runner breaking from an outside post, which means that she likely won’t benefit in a speed duel. The second is that she has never taken on the boys before, which can be a challenging adjustment for some females.

11- Got Stormy

Which version of this mare are we going to see this time around? At various points in her career, she was the best turf horse in the United States without caveat, but those days have passed. In the G1 Fourstardave two starts back, she crushed the boys in a way that should seem familiar to her, but a cutback to six furlongs next time out proved disastrous. The mile is clearly her preferred distance (10-for-20 lifetime, 17 finishes in the money), but she has struggled at times this year regardless of the going. She’s a little too inconsistent to trust at this point.

12- Pearls Galore (Fr)

This filly has taken a noticeable step forward in her last two starts despite losing in both of them. The G1 Matron Stakes and G1 Prix de la Foret were her first two forays into G1 competition and she competed very well at 7-1 odds each time, finishing second in a pair of large fields. In her most recent outing, however, she was emphatically overshadowed by fellow runner Space Blues, who ran by her and the rest of the field in the stretch like they were standing still. She did defeat Mother Earth in the Matron, however, which puts her on equal footing as a European competitor with upside.

13- Casa Creed

I suppose that a mile is better for this horse than five furlongs, but I’m not sure either Breeders’ Cup distance is optimal for him. In the G1 Jaipur at six furlongs back in June, he dusted a field of talented New York turners with a 105 BSF in late running fashion. But his subsequent starts off a short layoff, one of which was at a mile, have been a little flat. He’s a contender if he can return to his form earlier in the year, but I don’t believe it’s a worthwhile bet.

14- Ivar (Brz)

He has only started in two races this year, and he was flat in both appearances. The horse has had some stellar performances since coming to the U.S. last year, but his struggles in 2021 will likely keep him out of contention here.

15- Real Appeal (Ger)

At a glance, there’s a reason he was on the also-eligible list.

Order: 3 6 12 9

Space Blues (Ire) and Mo Forza appear to be the two strongest in the field by far, and in taking the European on top. Pearls Galore (Ire) and Mother Earth (Ire) are some classy runners from overseas but I only see them as the best of the rest.