Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

As if 12-horse turf sprints aren’t challenging enough for handicappers, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint combines the intricacies of such a race with the unpredictability of two-year-olds.

Last year, this race wasn’t much of a challenge to figure out when Golden Pal proved himself far superior to any runner on either side of the globe. But Wesley Ward has three runners in this one and there are 11 more beside them, making this one of the tougher races of the entire two-day event. At least the value is there, and bettors would be well-advised to go looking for it.

Race 6
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2) for Two-Year-Olds, Five Furlongs on the Turf

1- Twilight Jet (Ire)

He’s well-raced for a two-year-old, and while two wins in 10 starts isn’t all that impressive, I’m willing to forgive the poor record because of his recent improvement. The G3 Cornwallis was an obvious drop in class but he handled it the way he should have in a two-length win. He’s an outsider with a chance, but I would’ve liked to see a little more.

2- Kaufymaker

Even with a perfect trip up the rail, this filly had no chance against stablemate and fellow runner Averly Jane last time out. Irad Ortiz leaves to ride another Ward runner in here, and the signs of improvement simply aren’t there.

3- Go Bears Go (Ire)

Before his last race, this colt didn’t do much wrong through five starts despite earning just two wins. The last one, a 7 ½ length defeat, was at seven furlongs and seemed to demonstrate that he does his best running going shorter. In Europe, he had significant competing speed which could come in handy. He’s another interesting option at long odds.

4- Vertiginous (Ire)

The class isn’t really there, as this filly hasn’t shown much in two G2 stakes and only has one win in six starts. Five furlongs seems to be the right distance, but her victory against an integrated ungraded stakes field seemed to feature lesser competition.

5- Hierarchy (Ire)

He’s never run at five furlongs before, but at least he’s been improving at six. I can’t find a replay of the G2 Mill Reef Stakes anywhere, but it seems like he showed some serious speed and nearly pulled off an 18-1 upset. Stepping up again here seems a little ambitious, and I struggle to understand why he’s 12-1 when more interesting Europeans runners to his inside are 15-1 and higher. It makes me feel like I’m missing something.

6- Twilight Gleaming (Ire)

I’m all over this runner because I love when Wesley Ward ships his juveniles overseas. Following a dominant maiden score at Belmont, she made her next start in the G2 Queen Mary and showed a ton with a runner-up finish in a 21-horse field. She stayed in Europe over the summer and most recently took down an ungraded stakes field in France back in August. The layoff doesn’t concern me, as Golden Pal won this race last year for Ward after similar time off. It also allows for natural improvement for the developing juvenile. I like what I see.

7- Armor (GB)

He’s a very obvious contender after several solid outings at the highest level of juvenile racing in Europe. He hasn’t yet cashed in on any G1s, but he got real close last time out in the Middle Park Stakes at 9-1 odds. He seems as adept at five furlongs as he is at six, but something about his PPs is scaring me away. He seems to run well enough to contend without winning, and I wouldn’t put it past him here.

8- Averly Jane

In four starts, no one has come close to catching her on either surface. After three successful starts on dirt, the last of which was moved off the turf, she finally made her way to the grass and easily handled the ungraded Indian Summer with an 87 BSF. She’s shown a ton of surface versatility in her two most recent starts, but her running style appears to be one-dimensional. As the 5-2 favorite, it may be worthwhile to go against her, as dominant victories also suggest that she hasn’t been tested like other contenders in this field.

9- One Timer

After seeing this runner at 4-1 on the morning line, I feel much more comfortable disagreeing with the oddsmaker. This gelding’s two starts on artificial tracks over the summer were clear cut, but her turf debut at Santa Anita was not nearly as flashy. In the ungraded Speakeasy, she barely held on against fellow runner Time to Party and only earned a 70 BSF for the win. There’s simply too much talent in this race to consider excuses for that regression.

10- Time to Party

This gelding has not yet earned a speed figure higher than 70, which demonstrates the lack of competition One Timer faced in the ungraded Speakeasy Stakes. They’re both fairly easy tosses.

11- Derrynane

She was a highly touted filly at Saratoga over the summer but never really delivered the goods until Christophe Clement shipped her to Woodbine. In an ungraded stakes race against fillies, she finally impressed with a bold move from off the pace to win by nearly three lengths with an 81 BSF. The waters get deeper here though, making her a remote outsider.

12- Run Curtis Run

A switch to turf last time out seemed to be the right move, as this colt nearly upset the G3 Futurity at Belmont at 20-1 odds. Michael Maker found the right time to move him into open company, but this is an even more ambitious spot. 

Also-Eligibles:

13- Thunder Love (GB) (SCRATCHED)

14- Sumter (SCRATCHED)

Order: 6 7 8 3

Twilight Gleaming (Ire) was the Ward trainee that earned an extended stay overseas, and that’s always a sign of confidence for an American turf runner. She’s my top pick and I’m hoping to get a decent price. Armor (GB) is short on wins but possesses a significant class edge that should allow him to make a worthwhile effort stateside. Averly Jane is a deserving favorite after four straight wins, but I’m not sure if she’s done quite enough on the turf to demonstrate outright superiority over this field. Go Bears Go (Ire) is an intriguing longshot getting back to a distance that has suited him previously.