I’m glad this race is on last on Breeders’ Cup Friday, as it is the most interesting of the juvenile races. A very deep field of juvenile turfers seems poised to put on a wild race, and picking four runners still isn’t enough to narrow down the contenders.
Sometimes, talented turf runners at two have a habit of disappearing later in their career. Therefore, it’s important to appreciate these precocious stars while they’re in the spotlight.
Race 10
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, 1 Mile on the Turf
1- Modern Games (Ire)
His last two starts overseas have been very impressive and he has improved in each of his five starts while stepping up in class. He has only ascended to the G3 level so far, but the ease with which he won the G3 Somerville at Newmarket has to inspire confidence. The problem is that he has never run a mile before, nor has he traveled around a turn since his first start, which he lost by 11 lengths in July.
2- Albahr (GB)
The gelding has won four straight starts between Britain and Canada while showing proficiency at both seven furlongs and a mile. He also seems to handle turns well, as he showed when capturing the G1 Summer by two lengths with an 81 BSF. Charles Appleby has been bringing some killers from Europe all year and Frankie Dettori follows him to ride again.
3- Dakota Gold
I don’t know how strong that field was in the ungraded Nownownow at Monmouth, but he looked very impressive in that turf debut with an 85 BSF. He’s a versatile runner that closed from off the pace last time but can likely get closer if needed. Luis Saez returns to ride in the absence of another mount, but he may stumble onto a contender here.
4- Tiz the Bomb
I can’t say that he’s done much wrong in two starts on turf, but I’m not exactly wowed by him either. He did overcome some fractious gate issues in his last start to win the G2 Bourbon, but it’s unclear how much his troubles affected the 75 BSF he earned. He needs to improve and the price will likely be right for his supporters.
5- Slipstream
The mile is still a question, but this colt has shown a lot of ability at shorter distances in his two most recent outings. He seemed to hesitate a bit when in between horses in the G3 Futurity, but he kicked into gear as soon as he found space on the inside and won going away with an 80 BSF. He still seems to be growing and he could very well appreciate the added distance, but a lot of improvement will have to occur in a short time span in order for him to have a reasonable chance.
6- Mackinnon
He has taken to a mile extremely well with three straight victories at the distance, and his performance in the Zuma Beach was especially impressive after a turbulent beginning. The speed figures aren’t there but he will likely improve organically with a better trip and he’s proven on the Del Mar turf. I just would’ve liked to see him compete against some stronger fields.
7- Great Max (Ire)
He has been in some deep fields in Europe in his past few starts, but that doesn’t necessarily make him a contender. He has been well beaten in all of those stakes races and has earned Timeform ratings that don’t really match up here. He has also never run this far before, and it may simply be too much for him to do at once.
8- Glounthaune (Ire)
I can forgive his poor showing in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes, where he had tough racing luck throughout and never managed to get involved in that deep field. But he has never run a mile before and his follow-up performance in the G3 Killavullan was victorious but straightforward. Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore are a lethal duo, but their colt will have to improve here.
9- Stolen Base
His only victory came in a restricted maiden race on the dirt at Saratoga and his subsequent starts on turf have been credible but not nearly enough to win here.
10- Portfolio Company
No one has gotten closer to beating future superstar Annapolis than this guy when he ran with him every step of the way in the G2 Pilgrim. The 88 BSF he earned that day makes him a contender here, but the dynamics of that four-horse race were very different from this one. He will likely have to show a dimension to his running style that he hasn’t really had the chance to demonstrate yet. I get the sense that he might have it in him, however.
11- Grafton Street
This colt has run on three different surfaces in three starts, and his performance in the G1 Summer two back was competent. He simply has to improve, and instead of wasting more time talking about the horse, I’d much rather share a nice stanza from a poem written in 1946 by Patrick Kavanaugh.
“On Grafton Street in November we tripped lightly along the ledge
Of the deep ravine where can be seen the worth of passion’s pledge,
The Queen of Hearts still making tarts and I not making hay-
O I loved too much and by such and such is happiness thrown away.”
12- Credibility
This G2 Bourbon is producing far more entrants than expected, as it doesn’t seem like a very compelling prep. This colt hasn’t shown anything to suggest a winning run here.
13- Coinage
He was at 4-5 at Monmouth last time out after an impressive win in the G3 With Anticipation at Saratoga. But he was very flat in the Nownownow and lost by nearly nine lengths to fellow runner Dakota Gold. I’m not sure what to make of him as a contender here, but the price will be right for those thinking he can bounce back.
14- Dubawi Legend (Ire)
His runner-up performance in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes suggests that he’s the real deal here. He would be a prohibitive favorite here if he hadn’t drawn the worst post possible, but the far outside position may actually result in a decent price for a colt that is plainly better than most of those in the starting gate beside him. I think he’s still worth backing for bettors who trust his ability.
Order: 10 1 14 3
Portfolio Company hasn’t yet won a stakes race, but he seems like he’s sitting on a big one. Annapolis would be favored in this race if he had entered, and this runner was extremely stubborn in the face of that highly touted competitor. Chad Brown seems to be trying everything to get him to relax on the track, and I’m betting that he has it figured out. Modern Games (Ire) is a very interesting Irish runner rounding into form well, and I expect the Godolphin runner to handle the mile well for Charles Appleby. Dubawi Legend (Ire) has all the promise in the world, and while the post does hurt him a little, I’m more concerned that his only race around a turn was a disappointing defeat in which he was favored. Dakota Gold rounds out my top four as a visually impressive runner with upside.
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