Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

The scariest part of any Breeders’ Cup is the race where none of the contenders seem good enough to win. The field for the Juvenile Fillies Turf isn’t the strongest but it’s deep, as 14 runners will try to improve on the world stage. It’s a very difficult race to figure out and will likely be the one that busts everyone’s multi-race bets.

I’m choosing to embrace the chaos a little with a bit of an outsider underneath, but I’m a little uncomfortable with the fact that I ended up picking most of the logical runners in what may end up being an illogical race. Such is the Breeders’ Cup.

Race 8
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 Mile on the Turf

1- Pizza Bianca

I really like her performance in the G1 Natalma, in which she showed a lot of courage moving in between horses to take place money. That was a big step up in class but she handled it very well and earned a solid 85 BSF to boot. Christophe Clement has been shipping her all over North America and makes another move here, which could be seen as a fatiguing factor or a sign of her trainer’s confidence. She’s a solid contender.

2- Cairo Memories

What’s going on with California racing this year? It seems like the entire contingent is a step slow in nearly every division, and this filly is another example. She’s perfect through two starts, including a solid effort in the ungraded Surfer Girl, but the 70 BSF she earned that day isn’t close to competitive with some of the others in this field.

3- Cachet (Ire)

She’s a seasoned runner with seven starts under her belt, but her fortunes in Europe have suffered since an easy maiden victory back in May. She’s competed in a lot of big races and has held her own, but a failure to cash in two back against fellow runner Hello You suggests that she may be one to fade here.

4- Turnerloose

Even though it was a disappointing defeat at 4-5 odds, I don’t hate her showing in the G2 Jessamine. The problem is that it wasn’t the big step forward that may have been expected of her, though she probably would have won the event had it been run at a mile like this one. The cutback will definitely help, and while she has demonstrated that she doesn’t need the lead, it may be beneficial to gun for it this time around.

5- Bubble Rock

The added distance will prove to be the biggest challenge for this filly after three solid starts in sprints. But her running style suggests that she may be able to get a little closer to the lead while stretching out, which could be an asset in a race that may be on the slower side early.

6- Hello You (Ire)

It’s curious that the trainer couldn’t manage to recruit a European jock to ride, but Velasquez is always serviceable. Her six starts at sprint distances have been a mixed bag, but she improved significantly in the G2 Rockfel Stakes last time out. Her performance that day qualifies her for this race, but she’ll need to prove herself at a mile in a very new place across the world. I don’t know if I see it.

7- Consumer Spending

Chad Brown would be a great asset to any runner in this field and the distance shouldn’t be an issue. But I have some reservations about her ability, and I suspect Brown may too. It strikes me as an odd move for the trainer to ship her down to Laurel in her stakes debut after a stylish victory at Saratoga. It was a big score and earned her a berth in this race, but the lack of improvement that day seems to confirm that Brown shipped her to a smaller pond for a reason.

8- Sail By

I was actually fortunate enough to see this filly win at 28-1 odds on debut in person this summer, and she has put in some solid efforts since. But the speed figures don’t seem to be improving enough for her to have much of a chance here.

9- Koala Princess

She’s a really cool filly that has already demonstrated versatility in two starts. After wiring the field in her debut at Monmouth, she came back to win the ungraded Ainsworth at Kentucky Downs from well behind. Her trip that day could not have been better, however, as she saved ground on the rail the entire way. She will have to prove that she can run at route distances after two sprint starts. There’s a lot to like from a visual standpoint, but there are some questions too.

10- Helens Well (Ire)

Losing on the turf against a weak California contingent this year doesn’t seem to be a fortuitous path to Breeders’ Cup Glory. Her speed figures don’t suggest she can be competitive here.

11- Haughty

From a visual standpoint, this filly looks the part in every way. She was forced to break her maiden twice after an unfortunate disqualification in her debut, but she has put away her rivals convincingly on both occasions. The speed figures are light, but the distance is probably right. Maybe she can take a step forward.

12- Malavath (Ire)

Another European sprinter that has not yet run a mile, but the talent is there. After two unsuccessful maiden tries, she has improved in each start since and ran very nicely to win the G2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte last time out. For a runner that has not yet raced around one turn, however, two may be a challenge, and her pair of wins coincided with a move to the softer turf at Chantilly after two losses on firm grass at Deauville.

13- Mise En Scene (GB)

Her first attempt at a mile last time out was unsuccessful, but I think the class hike was more to blame for the loss than the distance. She actually ran very well in the G1 Bet365 Fillies’ Mile, finishing in fourth and a nose behind fellow runner Cachet. She seemed to handle turns well in her debut as well as in the G3 Tote Prestige Stakes, and her jockey in those starts has traveled to ride her here. I’m not against her.

14- California Angel

A deep closer on the far outside is always welcome. After a debut win on the turf at Kentucky Downs, trainer George Leonard III seemed to double guess himself and put her on the dirt, where she lost an optional claiming event. As a result, her positive turf form was a little muddied when she chased down fellow runner Turnerloose from out of the clouds to take the G2 Jessamine with a 73 BSF. The $5,500 purchase has already paid dividends for trainer Chris Walsh, but this may be where the music stops for now. I don’t love the cutback in distance for her and the speed figures aren’t quite there anyway.

Order: 1 11 13 9

I can’t say that I have a great feel for this one, but Pizza Bianca strikes me as a very likely contender rounding into form at the right time. Haughty doesn’t have the speed figures to qualify as a contender here, but she passes the eye test and gives me the impression that she’s capable of moving forward at a price. Mise En Scene (GB) has demonstrated some ability overseas in classy races and is accustomed to at least one turn. Koala Princess is a very difficult filly for me to toss, but there are questions about the distance that I’m not eager to gamble on.