Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

What some may see as an easy romp for Echo Zulu may actually prove to be an entertaining, if compact, running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. There are definitely a few runners in the field that don’t hold a candle to the precocious Asmussen filly, but there are a few with merit that may be overlooked come post time.

All that being said, she might win by eight.

Race 7
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

1- Desert Dawn

She showed very little scooting up the rail for show last time out in the G2 Chandelier. A stylish maiden win at Del Mar two starts back was nice, but she’ll need to improve dramatically to have a chance here. 

2- Hidden Connection

The romp at Colonial was no fluke, as trainer William Bret Calhoun shipped this filly to Churchill and made a mockery of the G3 Pocohantas. She has won her first two starts by nearly 17 combined lengths, though the competition was lighter than what she’ll face here. Easier fields sometimes allow good horses to get great trips but that’s not the case here, as she’s had to learn on the fly to work out of some tough spots along the way. She’s a cool runner with plenty of upside.

3- Sequist

I don’t really understand what the strategy was in the G1 Spinaway two back, but giving fellow runner Echo Zulu a 15-length head start didn’t exactly pay dividends for this runner. The deep closer made a somewhat more credible showing in the G1 Alcibiades to finish third behind fellow runner Juju’s Map, and the added distance seemed to help. But in order for her to have any chance of winning in such a short field, she will have to stay in touch with the back markers at the very least in the early going.

4- Tarabi

Following a precocious maiden victory at Ellis Park in August, this filly got in line with everyone else for a routine thrashing at the hands of fellow runner Echo Zulu in the G1 Spinaway. But despite starting horribly and rushing to get into contention, she actually turned in a solid effort as the runner-up with an 82 BSF at 19-1 odds. Even with improvement, she still may not be able to topple Echo Zulu, but at least there’s upside at a price.

5- Juju’s Map

She couldn’t have found a better trip in the G1 Alcibiades last time out, but at least she won the right way with an 84 BSF to boot. The problem is that she seems a little overvalued to me; her speed figures will have to improve but she doesn’t appear to have much room to step forward based on her previous outing. For bettors trying to beat Echo Zulu, it may be more profitable to look elsewhere.

6- Echo Zulu

There’s only one runner in the field who has earned a speed figure over 90, and she has three of them. This Asmussen filly has been stellar in New York in three straight starts without ever really being tested. She has never travelled around two turns before, which is certainly a knock on any 4-5 favorite. But if she can clear that hurdle and bring her best to the West Coast, it will prove difficult for anyone here to deny her.

Order: 2 6 4 5

If she beats me, then so be it. Echo Zulu is clearly the best horse in this field, but at 4-5, I have to wonder if there are other options to consider. Hidden Connection has proven to be overwhelming against softer competition through two starts, but the speed figures have been competitive enough to consider for a race like this one. The improvement doesn’t have to be dramatic for her to have a chance, but be careful to avoid odds under 2-1. Tarabi showed some resilience in a runner-up finish to Echo Zulu last time out and could easily improve here. Juju’s Map is a very clear contender but I believe she will be overbet based on her victory in the G1 Alcibiades.