The quality of this field dips precipitously with the withdrawal of favorite Jack Christopher, but there’s still plenty to like in a race that often features future Kentucky Derby runners. Last year’s running, the first meeting between Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie, was a classic before the Classic was even on their horizons.
I’m not exactly reinventing the wheel here, but there are a few long shots that interest me underneath. It’s always a little scary to put those outsiders on top, but if the mood strikes me, readers should know that I may end up putting a little money on an improbable runner or two.
Race 9
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
1- Jack Christopher (SCRATCHED)
This scratch is a massive development that completely changes the outlook of the race. My analysis was largely based on a potential speed duel, and while that can still occur, the field is now missing its biggest pace presence. Handicappers should adjust accordingly.
2- Jasper Great
There’s not nearly enough information to go on when evaluating this colt. A dominant maiden victory in Japan doesn’t speak to his chances against American competition, and the race occurred too recently for the strength of the field to be properly evaluated. He’s a wild card in the purest sense.
3- Oviatt Class
This deep closer has been running with determination as of late, breaking his maiden with style over fellow runner Barossa before rallying for third in the G1 American Pharoah. The one thing going for him is that fellow runner Corniche, who defeated him soundly last time out, will not have things so easily on the front end. He’ll be moving late, but his chances of striking the front are dependent on a pace collapse.
4- Pappacap
Following a victory in the G2 Best Pal, this colt has lost in two straight starts behind fellow runners Pinehurst and Corniche. He may be able to find a convenient stalking position in this race, but more improvement will be needed for him to take full advantage.
5- Double Thunder
He was part of a stampede last time out in the G1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, making the 74 BSF he earned in defeat that day even less impressive. Improvement needed.
6- American Sanctuary
He was part of a stampede last time out in the G1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, making the 71 BSF he earned in defeat that day even less impressive. Somehow more improvement needed.
7- Giant Game
I don’t necessarily mind a lack of stakes experience in the Juvenile, as Hot Rod Charlie demonstrated last year that a horse can improve on the fly at this level. He broke his maiden last time out with a flashy finish, but the 74 BSF suggests that he still has a lot of work to do before he can contend with these.
8- Barossa
Here’s another one without any stakes experience, but I happen to like him. Following a loss to fellow runner Oviatt Class in his second start, he improved significantly next time out to win with an 87 BSF. In that race, he dueled outside of California runner Durante for most of the race and wore him down in the final furlong. It was a very impressive performance in which the pair dusted the rest of the field by nearly 10 lengths. Bob Baffert has three in here and this one is clearly not the priority, but there are things to like about the precocious runner.
9- Pinehurst
The choice by Bob Baffert to put Mike Smith on fellow runner Corniche is very telling, but this colt has talent in his own right. Following an impressive victory at five furlongs on debut, he easily commanded a six-horse field in the G1 Del Mar Futurity from gate to wire to make it two in a row. The distance is an obvious question, but he is sure to be a pace presence as a sprinter trying a route for the first time.
10- Commandperformance
Who doesn’t love a maiden in the Breeders’ Cup? He’s finished second in two straight starts, but the most recent one was as runner-up to Jack Christopher in the G1 Champagne. It took a lot of confidence for Todd Pletcher to enter him in such a lofty spot as a maiden. but he delivered and even applied pressure to a geared down JC in the final furlong. The 97 BSF he earned that day is the third best in the field, which makes for an interesting situation in which a maiden is actually a solid contender here.
11- Tough to Tame
Despite a close runner-up finish in the G3 Iroquois at 37-1 odds, this runner doesn’t seem competitive enough to contend with these.
12- Corniche
A front runner on the far outside always faces an unenviable task of dueling on the outside of other foes, but that’s the biggest concern here. This colt has been brilliant in California through two starts, dominating a maiden race in September with an eye-popping 98 BSF before taking the G1 American Pharoah with similar ease. The retention of Mike Smith is a very big deal, as Baffert has three in this race. The only problem will come down to race dynamics, in which he will likely have to try to beat other front runners while traveling further around turns.
Order: 10 12 8 3
With the scratch of Jack Christopher, this race becomes much more open. Commandperformance gave the fallen favorite a run for his money in the G1 Champagne last time out and should only get better with added distance. He will still have to deal with Corniche, however. The presumptive favorite will still have to fight to get an inside post position, but it won’t be nearly as difficult to do so with Jack Christopher out. He may run big, but I’m betting against him to win. Barossa strikes me as a very interesting runner, and I’m tempted to rank him even higher in my top four. Oviatt Class is definitely an outsider, but the deep closer is an important one to consider in a race featuring plenty of pace.
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