Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Race 7

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Turf

1- Going to Vegas

She’s now a G1 stakes winner and seems to be rounding into form at the right time, but I have serious doubts about the quality of the field she wired in the Rodeo Drive last time out. Her best chance here is to run this field off their feet, which actually doesn’t seem impossible but is also less likely than it was last time out. 

2- Pocket Square (GB)

Beyond the name recognition of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, issues abound for this runner. She seems a step slow against these and lacks significant class as an overqualified G3 winner last time out. Moreover, she rarely stretches out in distance and her one attempt at 1 5/16 miles in Europe last year was discouraging. There are better options.

3- Acanella (GB)

A dull performance in the G1 Matron Stakes suggests that she’s not at the G1 level yet as a three-year-old. Moreover, she has never run this far before and now doesn’t seem like the time to test her stamina.

4- Rougir (Fr)

Winners of Breeders’ Cup races are often classy runners getting better at the right time, and this beautifully named filly (“to blush” in French) seems to be conforming to that trend. After a pair of close defeats at shorter distances, this filly stretched out to 1 ¼ miles and improved immediately. In her most recent outing in the G1 Prix de l’Opera Longines, she delivered a career-best performance from out of the clouds to win by a nose with a 117 Timeform Rating. The extra eighth of a mile should only help a runner like this and her form is spectacular.

5- Queen Supreme (Ire)

She was doing well in South Africa in 2020 and early 2021, but her final outing down there was poor and her first start in Britain was worse. The distance is a question too, and there’s simply too much uncertainty in a race where she’ll really need her best.

6- Love (Ire)

Earlier this year, this filly would be a lock in this race, and trainer Aidan O’Brien probably would have considered a loftier spot in the BC Turf. But she hasn’t been quite as sharp in her two most recent starts after a string of four straight victories between 2020 and 2021. To be clear, a show finish in the G1 Juddmonte International and photo finish defeat in a G2 are not to be dismissed, but it does make her more vulnerable than she would have been.

7- War Like Goddess

The most likely American contender in this race comes out of Bill Mott’s barn, as this filly has flown through the ranks of the division with four straight victories in graded stakes competition. She has won convincingly on two occasions against fellow runner My Sister Nat and seems to be getting better in each start. I’m not putting it past her to give the Europeans a run for their money.

8- Loves Only You (Jpn)

For those unfamiliar with Japanese horse racing, look no further than this mare’s runner-up finish behind superhorse Sodashi in the G2 Sopporo Kinen. She has raced sparsely recently and peaked with two elite runs in the spring, but she still seems to be in a position to run big here and the distance is perfect.

9- My Sister Nat (Fr)

She’s a gamer that’s been in the upper crust of American turf racing for some time, but she comes up short more often than not. Her ninth place finish in last year’s running of this race seemed appropriate at the time and she doesn’t seem to have improved since then.

10- Ocean Road (Ire)

This filly is winless in 2021 and doesn’t seem fast enough to contend in a race like this one.

11- Dogtag

This mare is winless in 2021 and doesn’t seem fast enough to contend in a race like this one. To avoid accusations of laziness, I’ll also point out that she has lost to fellow runner Going to Vegas in two straight starts. Based on her close finishes in those races, this leads me to conclude that Going to Vegas hasn’t been facing the best competition out west.

12- Audarya (Fr)

Allow me to reminisce for a moment. I felt like I was getting away with something when I picked this horse to win in last year’s running of this race at 17-1 odds. She conformed perfectly to my theory for these sorts of races, as she was rounding into razor sharp form as the year went on. The exacta with Rushing Fall didn’t hurt either, and essentially bankrolled my gambling ventures for most of 2021. 

Despite not winning a race in 2021, the mare seems similarly competitive after two solid performances in G1 stakes races in France. A loss to Rougir in the Prix de l’Opera Longines is a little concerning, but some are attributing it to a rider error in sending her for the lead too soon. She may be a little overvalued due to her win last year, but she’s difficult to leave out entirely.

Order: 4 8 7 6

You could throw a blanket over them, but I love Rougir (Fr) coming off a career-best effort in France. She’ll likely come flying again here, and she has as strong a chance as any in that stampede. Loves Only You (Jpn) looks formidable as well and could be a real problem if she gets back to her form earlier this year. War Like Goddess is the only American in my top four, but she’s earned that consideration after months at the top of her division. She’s another one improving at the right time. Love (Ire) fills out my top four as another European in top form. If the firm turf at Del Mar wipes all of these Europeans out of the race, then I suppose I’ll be in a lot of trouble.