Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

Any real reader of Paddy’s Picks can predict the direction that I’m going in for this one. But stick around anyway; I’ve been told that I’m at my most entertaining when I’m not trying to be. I won’t even take up too much of your time — there’s not much to go over here.

Reigning champion Gamine has managed to scare away most of her competition, and if she loses, nearly every multi-race bet in the country will collapse on the first leg. For those seeking value, it’s probably best to skip this one and watch.

Race 4

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

1- Proud Emma

This mare has never been close to fast enough to contend at this level. She has never competed in a G1 stakes race and she’s winless in 2021.

2- Estilo Talentoso (SCRATCHED)

She’s a hard-trying filly, but there’s only one runner in this race that has a chance of winning from the stable.

3- Edgeway

She has won five of eight starts in her career, which is an excellent record for any 12-1 shot. But her one finish outside the money came when she tried to duel fellow runner Gamine back in July, leading to an 11-length defeat. She will have to come from off the pace with the race of her life to win here.

4- Ce Ce

In two full seasons of racing, this talented mare has been a mainstay at the highest levels of the sport. A recent cutback in distance seems to be treating her well after a failed attempt at the BC Distaff last year. But her only loss of the year under a mile came against fellow runner Gamine, when she simply failed to make up ground in the stretch. She will have to find some way to run her down, and the short field doesn’t help.

5- Gamine

One name keeps coming up, doesn’t it? We all know her by now as the most dominant sprinter in the country, but before her last start, she seemed very vulnerable going into this race. A 104 BSF in the G1 Ballerina puts many of those concerns to rest, however, and there’s only one real contender in this race with any chance of taking her down.

6- Bella Sofia

Maybe, and it’s a big maybe. On paper, this three-year-old filly is actually faster than Gamine in the early stages, which will be important if she plans to duel with her from the outside. Her two most recent wins in the G1 Test and G2 Gallant Bloom make her seem formidable in the face of an undeniably scary opponent. She will need to improve again to get this unenviable job done, but it’s not unreasonable for her to make things interesting.

Order: 5 6 4 3

I’m not in a creative mood for this one. For some reason, Gamine manages to escape the wrath which I extend to nearly every other runner in Bob Baffert’s barn. This filly is one of my favorite horses on the track right now and she has the stats to earn my approval. Bella Sofia is a very reasonable spoiler candidate, but no one has yet managed to outdueled the favorite at a sprint distance. Ce Ce and Edgeway can bring up the rear.