Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Race 10

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

1- Private Mission

Visually, this filly appears to be a promising up-and-comer for trainer Bob Baffert. In her first two graded stakes attempts in California, she powerfully took command at the top of the stretch and cruised home to easy victories, including one against fellow runner As Time Goes By. The problem is that she’s still a little outclassed and has not yet run this far in her short career. Seldom is a wait-and-see approach a winning strategy in the Breeders’ Cup.

2- Royal Flag

Her two most recent starts have been the sharpest of her career, as she has managed to close with determination at the highest level of racing in New York. But even with a 100 BSF two back in the G1 Personal Ensign, she ran out of room trying to chase down fellow runner Letruska. Moreover, I’m concerned that the Del Mar track will not treat her running style as kindly as those she has encountered on the East coast.

3- Malathaat

I really hope she sticks around for a few more years. The filly has been nearly perfect in seven starts, and would be undefeated if not for a very strange running of the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks. She can win on the lead and from behind, a big advantage over some of her one-dimensional competitors. The speed figures are a little light and she has never faced older horses, but she hasn’t raced since August and could easily improve. I also think there’s little reason to be concerned with the time off, as she has fired fresh after two breaks in her career. Letruska awaits.

4- Blue Stripe (Arg)

There’s plenty to dislike… but I kind of like her.

I’m not totally sure, but from a visual standpoint, her Argentinian competition seemed legitimate. Moreover, I didn’t notice an appreciative difference between her ability and some of her American counterparts in this field. The six-month layoff is difficult to stomach, but she has been rigorously training in California for months while others in this field were racing elsewhere. Frankie Dettori is a fascinating pickup for small-time trainer Marcelo Polanco as well. There are worse 30-1 shots out there, and I’m a sucker for this underappreciated sort.

5- Clairiere

She’s a very game runner, and it was nice to see her notch a G1 victory in the Cotillion last time out. But the speed figures are a little light and she has challenged fellow runner Malathaat multiple times in her career without passing the super filly. Possible inclusion underneath.

6- Letruska

To be considered for Horse of the Year as a filly is an accomplishment in itself, as this mare has been nigh unstoppable in her five-year-old season. She lost in a photo to fellow runner Shedaresthedevil back in March but has been otherwise dominant in five starts since. The problem for me: she’s a very tempting favorite to go against.

She has been very game in some tight spots on the front end this year, but her speed figures are only marginally better than some of her competitors in this race. It’s also unlikely that she will be alone on the lead either. She’s brilliant with name recognition to spare, but at 8-5, she seems a little beatable, doesn’t she?

7- Horologist

At five, it seems like her best days are behind her. She isn’t firing off triple-digit speed figures like she did at this point last year and has been giving up early leads to late closer Royal Flag, who has her own issues as an East coast runner shipping in. She will be there early and could be a headache for Letruska, but it’s difficult to see her sticking around for long.

8- Shedaresthedevil

I think the 2020 Kentucky Oaks winner deserves a little more respect. After all, there’s only one horse on the planet that has defeated Letruska, Gamine and Swiss Skydiver. She isn’t the most exciting runner from a visual standpoint, but she has quietly put together four wins this season, including one over the heavy favorite in this race. The outside post isn’t optimal but she has managed good trips going wide before. She’s a spoiler candidate in a race that many may consider to be a walkover.

9- As Time Goes By

The fundamental things apply. This filly is trending in the right direction but has not shown nearly as much in her three latest starts. Since August, she has been defeated by five runners in this field despite improving in each race. Compare this to her form earlier in the year, when she rattled off four wins in five starts with speed figures in the high 90s. She will have to find her previous form to have any chance here, and even then, slight improvement may still be needed.

10- Marche Lorraine (Jpn)

We love a wild card at Paddy’s Picks, but they don’t get wilder than this mare. It took me 20 minutes and a short Japanese lesson to find a replay of her most recent start on YouTube (I’ll link it here), and it wasn’t overwhelmingly impressive. I’m trying to figure out how she fits here, but it appears that she has been sharper at various points in her career. I just don’t see it.

11- Dunbar Road

The old girl keeps plugging away, but she has been a little short on luck as of late. She has been consistently competitive and delivered the best speed figure of her career two starts back, but she also hasn’t won a race since July 2020. After two straight losses to Letruska, it’s difficult to see her turning the tables from the far outside post.

Order: 6 3 4 8

I’m considering beating Letruska, but the field just isn’t quite there. She’s been brilliant all year and she’ll probably bring it again. That doesn’t mean that Malathaat and Shedaresthedevil won’t make a race of it, however. Blue Stripe (Arg) is my indulgent long shot, and I’ll probably end up putting a sentimental wager down on her.