The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile is one of my favorite races every year, and was actually one of my first big scores when Caleb’s Posse won the race in 2011. This year’s running doesn’t look nearly as profitable, however.
Besides an emphatic favorite, there are some very talented runners in the field, including a a few rising stars in the division. But to argue against Life Is Good seems pretty futile, and I don’t intend on doing so.
Race 6
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Dirt
1- Silver State
He didn’t know how to lose earlier this year when he racked up six straight victories. But he has figured it out in his two starts off a layoff, losing to Knicks Go in the G1 Whitney and Mind Control in the Parx Dirt Mile despite running faster than he ever had before each time. He’s an obvious contender, it I don’t trust him to take down the favorite.
2- Pingxiang
I know very little about Japanese horse racing, but this colt hasn’t run since June and has never run a mile before. It’s very convenient to toss him due to a lack of clarity.
3- Ginobili
This gelding was actually an early Derby contender back in 2020, but an obvious setback sent him tumbling back down to allowance competition. He finally regrouped two starts back with a 104 BSF in an optional claiming event, and he proved he still had it when taking a G2 stakes at Del Mar next time out. He’s coming along quickly and has experience on the track, but winning this one will require even more improvement.
4- Jasper Prince
Based on his 14th place finish in the Green Channel Cup, I’m ready to conclude that this runner is not prepared to take on a field of this caliber.
5- Life Is Good
He’s impossible to get around. To get as close as he did to beating Jackie’s Warrior two back is already an astounding achievement, and when coupled with his work earlier this year, he seems to be on the verge of superstardom here. He’s the pick in every scenario.
6- Restrainedvengeance
His speed figures don’t appear to be competitive in this field.
7- Snapper Sinclair
This horse has run on both surfaces before, but the confusing thing for me is that he has always been more of a turf runner. His speed figures on the dirt are scattered and inconsistent, and I’m just not sure how to consider him against proven dirt milers.
8- Eight Rings
He has speed on his side, but I really would have appreciated a win in graded stakes competition before I supported him in a race like this. An allowance win at Santa Anita last time out does little to alleviate my concern that he’s a step below.
Order: 5 3 1 7
Life Is Good has run too well to lose this season, making a second defeat in 2021 extremely unlikely. Ginobili and Silver State have had very solid seasons and are clearly rounding into form, but this seems like a tough spot. Snapper Sinclair is probably on the wrong surface, but a show finish isn’t totally unreasonable.
One thought on “Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile”
Comments are closed.