Horse racing doesn’t handle expectations well. The problem from a sporting perspective is clear — horses don’t compete with the excitement of fans in mind. In many years, a nondescript claiming race at Monmouth may provide more of a thrill to fans than the Kentucky Derby. This puts the Breeders’ Cup, and specifically the Classic, in an awkward position as the culminating event of the season.
Sometimes, the race delivers. The two Derby winners hit the wire together when Ferdinand beat Alysheba in ’88. Cigar had the heart of a champion in ’96 but couldn’t repeat against giant killer Alphabet Soup. Awesome Again beat one of the best fields ever assembled on dirt in ’98. Zenyatta pulled off the unbelievable in ’09. When the race lives up to the hype, there’s nothing better.
But recent years haven’t treated the Classic kindly. Arrogate stole the show against California Chrome in 2016, but every running since has either been straightforward or anticlimactic. Arrogate no-showed against Gun Runner in ’17, Accelerate and Vino Rosso were forgettable champions in ’18 and ’19, and Authentic wired a field of weak older horses in ’20. It happens.
Will 2021 break the streak of monotony? This writer thinks so. In fact, the field assembled for this year’s Classic is one of the most dynamic fans have seen in years. With at least three superstars firing out of the gate early and an indefatigable, seemingly inevitable chaser making up ground late, the race projects to be as exciting as it is competitive.
Race 12
Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
1- Tripoli
In the span of three months, this colt went from allowance also-ran to graded stakes winner, and it appears that his newfound form is holding. After a flashy runner-up finish behind fellow runner Express Train in the G2 San Diego Handicap, he finished the job in the G1 Pacific Classic with a perfect stalking trip on the rail. The victory made him the second choice behind Medina Spirit in the G1 Awesome Again, where he challenged despite a wide trip but ultimately faded to fourth. He’s in solid form at the right time, but he hasn’t yet proven fast enough to tackle a field of this caliber.
2- Express Train (SCRATCHED)
He showed a good deal of fortitude winning the G2 San Diego Handicap in July, one of the few times he went to the front end. In subsequent efforts off the pace in the G1 Pacific Classic and G1 Awesome Again, he struggled to get into contention, though his most recent start behind fellow runner Medina Spirit was stronger. He has been a top horse on the California circuit all year, but he hasn’t done enough to earn bettors’ attention for the top spot here.
3- Hot Rod Charlie
How could you not like this guy? His fortunes took a nosedive after a gutsy win in the G2 Louisiana Derby, but despite three straight losses thereafter, he has not run poorly all year. After an eye-popping defeat in the Belmont Stakes and a disqualified victory in the G1 Haskell, the colt finally captured G1 glory in the Pennsylvania Derby with a career-best 111 BSF.
His best running in 2021 has been done on the front end, which can pose a problem in a likely matchup with Knicks Go. But unlike some others in the race, he has demonstrated versatility off the pace as well, which could benefit him in a stretch duel with many possible rivals. In 2021, he has come dangerously close to taking down some of the greatest colts in his class, and in yet another rematch against Essential Quality and Medina Spirit, the price will likely be right for him to turn the tables.
4- Essential Quality
He’s as good as any three-year-old I’ve seen. In fact, at certain points this year, I’ve never seen better. If fellow runner Hot Rod Charlie had run in the Belmont Stakes in 2015, he would have defeated American Pharoah by a length and a half. In 2018, Hot Rod would have had Justify by three and a half. From Birdstone in 2004 to Sir Winston in 2019, he would have won every single running of the Belmont with a 108 BSF. He lost to Essential Quality.
The instantly recognizable Godolphin grey does just enough to win, but he has only come up short once and always shows up. His most recent win in the G1 Travers demonstrated an affinity for the Classic distance. The mighty Arrogate remains the only Travers winner to go on to win the Classic in the same year, but plenty of horses have gotten close to pulling off the double. Concern, Bayern and American Pharoah lost the Travers but went on to win the Classic in ’94, ’14 and ’15, while Easy Goer, Medaglia d’Oro and Will Take Charge won the Midsummer Derby but came up just short at the end of the year in ’89, ’02 and ’13.
I don’t see the layoff as a big issue, as many horses have won this race after comparable time off. If anything, a break may be exactly what he needed after a typically grueling three-year-old racing schedule. Good trips make good horses, and with so much early speed in this field, the conditions will be perfect for this chaser to find the perfect position he always seems to find. In my opinion, there are few favorites more deserving.
5- Knicks Go
Will the old boy get the distance? To be five years old and completely untested at this Classic distance is already a red flag, though this is minimized by a stellar racing season going shorter. Between victories in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Dirt and G1 Whitney, he has been brilliant more often than not, earning some considerable speed figures while running horses off their feet. His early speed is simply unrivaled, even in this field full of front runners.
He doesn’t always show up, as notable defeats in the Saudi Cup and Met Mile count as marks against him in the 2021 season. But the main issue will always be his endurance. He is not in this race because it’s the best spot for him; it’s simply the last thing he has left to achieve in his career.
In another year, betting on his stamina may have been worthwhile. In another year, he would already be the Horse of the Year, and there’s a distinct chance that he can wire this field and win the award anyway. But there are plenty of proven options in what could be a historically strong field this year, and he may be an unprofitable runner to wager on for the top spot, despite his long list of accolades.
6- Art Collector
He might have embarrassed me on Preakness Day last year when I highly touted his inevitable ascendancy, but his subsequent starts clearly demonstrate that he was unsound in late 2020. After resounding defeats in the Preakness and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, trainer Thomas Drury chose to give him seven months off. He returned awkwardly in the ungraded Kelly’s Landing, but a transfer to Bill Mott’s barn seems to have worked wonders. The colt has won his last three starts, including a front running score in the G1 Woodward with a 107 BSF. He’s a very good horse in excellent form, but I have questions.
His run in the Woodward likely represents his best possible performance at this point in his career, and the chances of him replicating such a trip in the Classic are slim. With Knicks Go, Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie vying for the early lead, being the lone speed will be a challenge. He will likely have to close from off the pace, and there are some killers in those ranks that he hasn’t had to face this year.
7- Stilleto Boy
He shouldn’t have been 50-1 when he ran second in the G1 Awesome Again, but the same odds might work well here. The upset Iowa Derby winner back in July seemed lost on the turf in the G2 La Jolla in his next start, but followed up that California debut with two solid efforts on dirt behind fellow runner Medina Spirit. He’s an honest runner, but these are the big leagues.
8- Medina Spirit
Maybe the answer is staring us all in the face. I hope not. As a racing fan from New York, I’ll be rooting against Medina Spirit with every fiber of my being. If he wins, an entire season of racing will be mired by the bookended triumphs of a forever tainted victor and his trainer. But as a bettor looking at the Form, this colt looks as ready as any Baffert runner on a big day.
Handicapping logic dictated that he wasn’t supposed to win the Preakness, but his two victories since have been impressive. After another revenge win over Rock Your World in the ungraded Shared Belief, he took down a seasoned colony of older horses in the G1 Awesome Again. The 107 BSF he received was well-earned in a wire-to-wire score. His running style that day, however, provides enough reason for me to go against him.
If he gets the early lead, this colt has proven that he simply refuses to give it up. But he’s one-dimensional. He was impossibly stubborn in the Kentucky Derby and emphatic in the Awesome Again when he got the lead to himself. But when Life Is Good and Rock Your World beat him to the punch early this year in the G2 San Felipe and G1 Santa Anita Derby, they ran him off his feet. When Midnight Bourbon challenged him in the Preakness, he folded again.
Now he will have to try to take on Knicks Go, the fastest router in the country, and chase him down. The Derby winner has not won a race without a clear early lead since his maiden victory as a 2YO at Los Alamitos.
9- Max Player
He’s a good horse, but I won’t consider him as anything more than that at this time. Since returning off a short layoff at Saratoga, he has rattled off two straight victories in the G2 Suburban and G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. But I don’t believe those races featured particularly strong fields, and his 101 and 102 speed figures in those wins seem to confirm that. He has a very determined sort of running style, but Classic winners typically appear more dynamic in their preps. He has an outside chance at a minor purse prize.
Order: 4 3 5 8
I managed to narrow this field down to three runners, and then it became impossible. In the end, I ultimately decided to settle on Essential Quality. He does everything right, and the dynamics of this race should provide him with a perfect trip. Hot Rod Charlie and Knicks Go are immensely talented runners with big chances here, and it takes everything I have to go against them, especially Hot Rod. They better put on a show.
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