Most years, the running of the Kentucky Oaks the day before the Kentucky Derby is little more than a stepping stone to the feature event of the weekend. After all, most fillies simply aren’t as fast as the colts, and the Oaks represents their initiation into all-female competition for the rest of their careers.
But sometimes, the Kentucky Oaks represents the first step in one of the most interesting circumstances in racing: a filly proving herself and going on to face the boys. In this sense, it represents hope and doesn’t happen often. Rachel Alexandra did it in 2009, winning the Oaks before defeating Derby winner Mine That Bird in the Preakness. Swiss Skydiver did it in 2020, finishing second in the Oaks before defeating Derby winner Authentic. This year, four fillies seem qualified to take this rare step forward. This isn’t just your average year.
For a race featuring female horses looking to take a step forward, I thought it would be fun to include nearly every woman who has ever contributed to Paddy’s Picks for this article. Some have learned more about racing since their last contributions. Some haven’t learned a thing. They all have opinions though, and a few are probably going to make some money.
For official Paddy’s Picks analysis of the Kentucky Oaks, click here.
Churchill Downs, Race 11
Kentucky Oaks (G1) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:51 p.m. EST
Joan Moquin
Pick: 7- Echo Zulu
1) Echo Zulu #7
- Asmussen Horse
- Sire: Gun Runner
- 88 Beyer
- love a lead horse
- My sentimental favorite, but will definitely get a run for her money in Nest and possibly Kathleen O.
2) Nest #4
- Pletcher Horse
- Solid Breeding: A.P Indy, Curlin
- 92 Beyer
- Jockey: Irad Ortiz
3) Goddess of Fire #5
- Pletcher Horse
- Solid Breeding: A.P. Indy
- 94 Beyer
Horse to watch: Kathleen O. #10
- 98 Beyer — not too shabby
Emma Moquin
Pick: 10- Kathleen O.
WPS: 10 4 7
“Long time, no see everybody. I found this race a bit more difficult than I maybe should have as I brush off some rust. With that warning out of the way, I am a big fan of Kathleen O. (10) in this race. I understand I am going against the favorite, but I’ve always been a fan of beating the odds, so that is what I’m attempting to do here today. She has Castellano on her and together they have had a lot of success in the past couple of races. Her speed figures are quite impressive and she’s beaten some of her fellow competition in the past. I was wary of picking any lead horses here because there are just so many in the race and I have a general dislike for them anyway. I am going to go with the chalk and put Nest in my number two spot. Her jockey/trainer combo is hard to beat and I think she will be able to stay right behind the lead horses and follow through if they all tire out. Lastly I will put in the slightly terrifying Echo Zulu. Her past races speak for themselves, but in her last race she only beat Hidden Connections by a nose. I’d like to think that if the other lead horses go with her, there is a chance to beat her here today. Good luck and happy Kentucky Derby Eve!”
Sue Moquin
Pick: 5- Goddess of Fire
“Really, do I have to explain?”
Kristina Stevanovic
Pick: 10- Kathleen O.
“Kathleen O. has some good Beyer speed figures here. I don’t like Secret Oath on the rail, I don’t love Nest. Shahama is my value pick. You can quote me on that too. If I had to a trifecta here… actually no, I’ll have to get back to you on that.”
Kristina’s Second Pick, After Changing Her Mind: 13- Shahama
“Wait, no. Take Shahama to win.”
Maddie Sandholm
Pick: 7- Echo Zulu
“I think I remember this horse in a previous race I was given — no clue what the race results were though (correction: I’ve since been told I did not write about this horse, but that she did win a big race). But, I’m in a nostalgic mood tonight and this horse, regardless of holding actual memories or skill, feels like the one to go with. This race, much like the horse’s name, will be an EZ win.”
Jill Rice
Pick: 11- Cocktail Moments
“My thesis presentation is over and I’m about to have a Cocktail Moment. Thus, I’m rooting for Cocktail Moments (this can also be a pun on the “tail” of a horse!) for the Oaks. She’s here for a good time, maybe not a long time, but that’s probably good for when you’re trying to win a race.”
Cristine Kalinski
Pick: 7- Echo Zulu
“I think I have to go Echo Zulu because, based on my own characterization, the horse seems like a spark of energy that’s ready to come hot out the gates and has the young stamina to stay strong until the finish.”
Juliana Burke
Pick: 6- Yuugiri
“This horse sounds like an undercover agent that will snipe the rest of them when they least expect it. The horse is agile, quick on its feet, ready to pounce at any moment. Ready for action.”
Niko Konstantellis
Pick: 1- Secret Oath
“Wait no, I don’t like Secret Oath.”
Niko’s Second Pick, After Changing Her Mind: 8- Venti Valentine
“Her best performance came at this distance, and she goes to the lead but doesn’t need it to win. I’m trying to speak in sentences for you, but I’m just going to speak out loud now. Yuugiri and Echo Zulu are going to the lead no matter what, and I guess those are the only two? Maybe Turnerloose? I think Gaffalione will see that it’s really tight up there, he’ll hold Venti Valentine back a little, and she’ll be close enough to make a move when they get tired. She’ll be hanging around with plenty left in the tank. All the favorites have flaws, so I might as well pick a long shot.”
Audrey O’Brien
Pick: 10- Kathleen O.
“Cuz that’s my sister’s name.”
Gabriella Bermudez
Pick: 10- Kathleen O.
“I just did some light googling and found that a lot of the horses are being compared to her and how well they competed against her. And according to Horseracingnation.com, Kathleen O, Nest, Echo Zulu and Secret Oath all have a chance to compete very well. Also, I am picking her because her number is 10 and I was born on the 10th month of the year. And apparently she can handle a big field so yay Kathleen!! Also, what does “filly” mean?”
Allison Grace “Danger” Stofer
Pick: 12- Candy Raid
“The sugar rush from all the candy will make her super fast. No one else stands a chance.”
Maryam Beshara
Pick: 5- Goddess of Fire
“As I looked through the names, this one immediately caught my eye. It takes me back to my 5th grade talent show, where I awfully performed “Girl on Fire” by Alicia Keys and worked a yellow tank top, orange pants, and a red cardigan. It’s safe to say I did feel like a goddess of fire at that moment. I hope people are able to reminisce just like I am when they see Goddess of Fire race on the track. I want people to remember their 5th grade talent shows too.”
Shaily Jani
Pick: 5- Goddess of Fire
“Goddess of Fire seems like a confident gal, killer name. My gut says she’s in it to win it. You know in the cartoons when people run so fast their shoes are on fire? That’s what I’m thinkin’ is going to happen.”
Kreena Vora
Pick: 13- Shahama
“Ok so based off of vibes, 4/4 in her career, 3/3 this year, and average trainer stats, I like Shahama. I also like Nest because she’s 2/2 in last year and slightly better trainer stats than others. Echo Zulu and Kathleen O also are probably very strong contenders but not feeling them. Kathleen is too boring of a name and Echo Zulu is like something Elon Musk would name a child.”
Grace Getman
Pick: 13- Shahama
“They seem very comforting. Like they would hang my macaroni art on the fridge.”
Emily Ellis
Pick: 8- Venti Valentine
“Venti Valentine because she reminds me of my two favorite things: Starbucks drinks and falling in love.”
Alyssa Macaluso
Pick: 4- Nest
“I’m going to go with Nest; her name’s short and sweet, and she has a sweet, soulful look about her. Though she’s not the most wild shot to bet on, I feel good vibes with this one.”
Roxanne Cubero
Pick: 11- Cocktail Moments
“Uhhhhhhhhhhhh Cocktail Moments, because in the words of famous drag queen Mrs. Kasha Davis, there’s always time for a cocktail!”
Mia Agostinelli
Pick: 5- Goddess of Fire
“That’s the energy that I need to be channeling going into finals, so I will manifest it through the horse.”
Nicole Kraemer
Pick: 5- Goddess of Fire
“I chose Goddess of Fire because it called to me. I’m currently studying abroad in Italy and have learned a lot about the gods this semester. 5 used to be my favorite number, so it caught my eye.”
Marissa Gootee
Pick: 5- Goddess of Fire
“That’s so badass!”
Gabby Etzel
Pick: 12- Candy Raid
Why would I choose anyone other than a horse named Candy Raid? Candy is fun and Raid kills cockroaches so it’s the best of both worlds. I imagine this means that the horse is very dynamic.
Gil Russo
Pick: 12- Candy Raid
“Loyal readers of The Casual Bet may recall that I make my picks with 0% research and 100% vibes. And my vibes are pointing me to Candy Raid for this one. The name has it all: a touch of fun (which you want while watching the race) from “candy,” a touch of urgency and daringness (which you want from a horse that’ll actually win) from “raid,” and an all-around nice ring to it (the consonance of the D’s is lovely). Seeing this horse win would make me as happy as a kid in a candy shop. And now I want M&Ms. BRB.”