On an obscure afternoon last August, I was exhausted and couldn’t have been happier. My family had made the annual early morning drive from Long Island to Saratoga Springs, New York. The drive upstate had brought me from a couch in Oceanside to the gleaming white fence surrounding the paddock at Saratoga Racecourse, and I considered it a significant improvement in scenery. As I watched the horses walk around in preparation for the fourth race that day, an old man walked up to me and struck up a conversation.
“What do we think of the 9?” he asked, loud enough that I could answer.
“Art Collector?” I asked.
“Is that the name? Sharp’s horse, yes, I think he’s ready today.” He didn’t turn to me as he replied.
“I mean, he has a chance,” I replied. “They all do in races like this though. First time starters are tough.”
He nodded for a moment, as old men often do when I take too long to make my point. After a while, he said, “I’ve been coming here for… well, long enough now. You know what I’ve realized?”
“What’s that?” I asked.
“When the horses up here beat you, they always look real good doing it.”
We wished one another good luck and parted ways. Neither one of us knew it at the time, but that man had picked a horse that would go on to win the G1 Blue Grass Stakes and qualify for the Kentucky Derby. He finished second by three lengths that day at Saratoga at 7-1 odds. For his sake, I hope he had the exacta.
After years and years of experience, his observations had become prophecies. You can choose one of the most talented horses in the country to win at Saratoga, and there will always be five other horses in the race that can beat him. The grounds resemble Heaven on Earth and the horses run like the wind, but it’s the most unforgiving handicapping venue in the country. I love and hate it in equal measure.
As I write this, I’m considering the challenges in my personal handicapping experience for this upcoming meet. I’ve never analyzed every race at Saratoga, nor have I gone a summer since my tenth birthday without having visited at least once. In my analysis, I’ll have to write about hurdle races and 12-horse dirt allowances, and I’ll have to have an informed opinion on both race types and every other in between.
I’ll have to look at Monmouth shippers as compared to Churchill shippers as compared to Belmont shippers as compared to Santa Anita shippers as compared to Laurel shippers, sometimes all in the same race. Baffert will face off against Brown and Pletcher, who will in turn have to compete against Asmussen and Romans.
Any handicapper would struggle under these conditions, which is why I’m not all that stressed as I enter the meet. If anything, readers will be more interested in a second opinion now than they ever were at Belmont. More competition means more value, even if the winners are more elusive. If I can help each of my followers reach a profitable conclusion at some point during the meet, then I’ve done my part. Saratoga is a pilgrimage for horse racing fans around the country, one that will have to be made from home this year, because there is no place more difficult — or gratifying — to succeed. It’s the ultimate test for handicappers and pure delight for racing fans.
Meanwhile, those that fall short at the window need only remember one thing to keep them coming back: Win or lose, horses are always going to run under those red and white banners in upstate New York, and they’re going to look good doing it. There are no other guarantees.
Best of luck to everyone this summer.