Three important preps for the Kentucky Derby will occur Saturday across the country in the span of an hour. Winners of the Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial Stakes will qualify automatically for the Kentucky Derby. All three races feature wide open fields. Have I built up enough drama?
While I haven’t been able to produce much content for Paddy’s Picks as of late, it doesn’t mean that I’ve been far from the racing scene. I’ve been paying more than enough attention to know that today’s slate of preps provide as much opportunity to horsemen as they will to bettors. Let’s take a look, starting with the Blue Grass.
Keeneland, Race 9
Blue Grass Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:15 p.m. EST
1- Tapit Trice
This colt’s win in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby makes him a solid contender here, but it also makes him a weak favorite. If he requires that deep closing trip to win at this level, he’ll never be a safe bet at short odds. Beyond that, however, there aren’t many holes in his form and I expect him to be in the mix.
2- Clear the Air
I analyze this horse more closely in my G2 Wood Memorial analysis, but if I don’t like him in that race, I really don’t like him in this one.
3- Verifying
Brad Cox is sending out a fleet of Derby hopefuls this weekend and this colt is one of the most interesting. After a commanding win in an optional claiming race in January, he took a lot of money in the G2 Rebel but didn’t have anywhere to run for most of the contest. He still kept on to take fourth through traffic, but it was far from his best possible performance. Based on his back class as a juvenile and his 97 BSF earlier this year, he could be the pick with a clean trip.
4- Classic Car Wash
After a pair of wins at Gulfstream in the lower levels, this gelding ran fairly well in the G3 Sam F. Davis and G3 Tampa Bay Derby to pick up some Derby points. But his show finishes in those races were far from wins, as he seemed to be clearly beat in each start. He could be in the mix against this field as well, but winning will be a tall task.
5- Hayes Strike
Ken McPeek has believed in this horse since the early stages of his two-year-old season, consistently entering him in stakes races up and down the coast. The colt finally cashed in last time out in the Private Term at Laurel, leading to another massive step up in class. He’ll be in over his head in this race if he can’t take another step forward.
6- Scoobie Quando
This is the sort of runner I simply have to toss on principle. Though he has improved steadily in three starts at Turfway Park, he’s very difficult to support without seeing him compete on dirt first. Moreover, his last two starts on the synthetic were losing efforts, and this is a big step up.
7- Sun Thunder
The switch from Brian Hernandez to Florent Geroux is a little puzzling, but a poor ride in the G2 Louisiana Derby is probably to blame. Before that, this colt nearly won the G2 Risen Star at 16-1 odds before getting sniped by another long shot at the wire. He’s completely dependent on the pace scenario and a clean trip as a deep closer, but he remains an outside contender if things break his way.
8- Blazing Sevens
I wasn’t fond of this colt as a two-year-old last year and he returned as a three-year-old with a no-show performance in the G2 Fountain of Youth. His questionable but undeniably successful juvenile form will probably lead to unappetizing odds on a runner that hasn’t yet proven himself to be a true contender at this level.
9- Major Blue
D. Wayne Lukas has kept this colt busy as of late, entering him in a 5 ½-length sprint allowance less than two weeks after he broke his maiden at a mile. He won both events wire to wire, but it’s hard to see how any of it might have prepared him for this start. Expect to see him early.
10- Raise Cain
I can’t make heads or tails of that G3 Gotham, in which this colt took advantage of a closing stampede to crush a 14-horse field by 7 ½ lengths. In any case, he will have to replicate that 90 BSF to compete against this field and I don’t know how he can do that under normal conditions. He’s probably an overlay but could also prove me wrong and maintain his form.
11- Mendelssohns March
The lack of experience is the key detractor here, though the far outside post doesn’t help. Despite earning his maiden win on the second try in fairly clean fashion, this colt will have to improve dramatically in the mix against this field.
Order: 3 1 7 4
There’s only one runner in this race that truly impressed me, making this more of a win bet race than any other. Verifying ran extremely well earlier this year after a durable juvenile campaign. The colt should be able to bounce back from a poor trip in the G2 Rebel. Tapit Trice is a reasonable favorite based on his win in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby, but a lot needs to go right for him to work out the same sort of trip two starts in a row. Sun Thunder and Classic Car Wash both seem like runners who need a lot to go right to have any chance, and their ability to win is questionable anyway.
Santa Anita, Race 6
Santa Anita Derby (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:43 p.m. EST
1- I Don’t Get It
Fresh off a maiden win for trainer Doug O’Neill, this colt might’ve been a key contender in any other Derby prep in the country with an 87 BSF. Against this field, however, he seems to be a step slow.
2- Dazzlemesilver
This maiden would have to improve dramatically to have any chance.
3- Geaux Rocket Ride (SCRATCHED)
A loss to fellow runner Practical Move in the G2 San Felipe was somewhat unexpected for this precocious runner, but he remains a key contender here after earning that 96 BSF. These California runners rarely run in the same order every time and this one could develop naturally and take another step forward in his third start. If you liked him last time, I wouldn’t hesitate to take him again at a longer price.
4- One in Vermillion
This colt won some profoundly cheap stakes races at Turf Paradise and Sunland Park to begin his career, but a dud in the G3 Sunland Derby stopped any momentum he might’ve had going into this very tough spot. Improvement would’ve been needed anyway.
5- Practical Move
His three-year-old debut represented a massive step forward in form, going from BSFs in the 80s as a two-year-old to a 100 BSF in March in the G2 San Felipe. He seemed to get a very fair trip in that race and there’s no reason to take it away from him. He’s a very tough favorite making his second start off the layoff.
6- National Treasure
This colt could be a very sneaky runner who is simply better than this lot. The problem is that it’s impossible to forecast his development since a third-place finish in the G3 Sham back in early January. Since his two-year-old season, he hasn’t done much wrong besides getting beat by even better horses, but his speed figures have been extremely solid. He could be very dangerous coming off a three-month layoff.
7- Skinner
This colt’s maiden win was long overdue and his follow-up effort in the G2 San Felipe was highly credible. The only drawback is that he has already proven third-best behind fellow runners Practical Move and Geaux Rocket Ride. A different pace scenario could help the deep closer, but that’s never a sure thing in California.
8- Mandarin Hero (Jpn)
I’m extremely tempted. Japanese horses have taken the racing world by storm in recent years and this one is already making history by becoming the first Japanese runner in Santa Anita Derby history. For those who don’t know, Japan has two primary racing circuits: the Japan Racing Association (JRA) and National Association of Racing (NAR). This colt is coming from the latter, generally considered to be the lesser of the two. Still, he won all four of his starts at two and came up just short in his three-year-old debut at 1 ⅛ miles in February. The strength of this field makes a wild card bet foolish, but my heart may wind up taking over at the window.
9- Low Expectations
This gelding is in over his head, even if he continues moving in the right direction. It would have been nice to see him win the G3 Sunland Derby before he tackled a field of this quality.
Order: 6 8 5 3 (Update: The 3, Geaux Rocket Ride, has been scratched.)
National Treasure makes a lot of sense and Mandarin Hero is certainly my favorite runner in the race. I’ll try to synthesize reason and sentimentality while betting on both of them to win. I believe National Treasure is going to step up here and qualify for the Derby, but it feels unlikely that Mandarin Hero showed up from Japan to stroll around the track. Practical Move and Geaux Rocket Ride could prove to be best if the G2 San Felipe is a live prep, but I’ll take a chance on the newcomers.
Aqueduct, Race 11
Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on Dirt
Post Time: 6:16 p.m. EST
1- Dreamlike
He’s an obvious contender despite his maiden status, a Todd Pletcher trainee retaining Jose Ortiz after two encouraging starts at Gulfstream Park. After suffering from a wide trip in both of those contests, it stands to reason that he can improve on his career-high 91 BSF with his inside post position here. In his February debut, the colt competed well with promising runners Arthur’s Ride and Case to finish as the runner-up between the pair. His second start is more concerning, however, as he seemed more than prepared to blow by Empirestrikesfast as the 1-5 favorite, only for the 23-1 long shot to retake the lead in the stretch. All the pieces seem to be in place for this one to take a big step forward, but he still needs to prove he’s interested at the wire.
2- Shadow Dragon
After two middling statebred starts at two, this colt came back extremely strong in the G3 Holy Bull and nearly defeated Mott stablemate Rocket Can at 34-1 with an 81 BSF. In the G2 Fountain of Youth, however, he barely appeared on the screen while getting outclassed by Kentucky Derby favorite Forte. If everything goes perfectly for the deep closer, he could have a say in the end. But there might be good reason for Jose Ortiz’s defection to ride for Dreamlike and Todd Pletcher this time around.
3- Knox
It’s very hard to justify his place in this field. Without a win in five starts since June 2022, it doesn’t appear that this Saffie Joseph trainee has done anything to prepare for a Derby prep at 1 ⅛ miles. Improvement needed.
4- General Banker
He’s always in the mix at this level, so it’s hard to rule out a minor prize. But this colt has now finished a distant third in three straight Derby preps, seemingly proving that his 8 ½-length romp in a statebred stakes in December was a fluke. Keep him in mind for the exotics, but don’t get too adventurous.
5- Slip Mahoney
It’s almost impossible to completely decipher his performance in the G3 Gotham, when he broke horrendously before taking part in a massive stampede of closers to get up for second. He has had gate trouble before, but it feels excusable and he recovered well enough. It’s fortunate that he has already demonstrated his potential, as he and fellow runner Crupi put on a delightful maiden race in January in which he earned an 87 BSF with a gritty victory. In the race before that, he came up just short against Tapit Trice, who has since become a key Derby contender. If he can break better and settle somewhere in the middle of the pack, he seems like a solid contender, though he’s unlikely to be trainer Brad Cox’s main focus in the race and the distance remains a question.
6- Clear the Air (SCRATCHED, running in Blue Grass)
More than any other closer in the G3 Gotham, this colt’s performance seemed to confirm the existence of a strong bias. After settling in the middle of the pack early, the Kentucky shipper was cooked after a half mile and faded, but still somehow managed to pick up the pieces for fifth after checking in the stretch. The performance was likely dressed up and wasn’t even that impressive anyway, and going longer probably isn’t going to help.
7- Arctic Arrogance
Hey, I know you. After this colt’s performance in the G3 Withers (which I covered in person for class), trainer Linda Rice said (as in, told me personally, no big deal) that he likely wasn’t prepared for 1 ⅛ miles and would try to run in the G3 Gotham next. That didn’t happen and now this colt still has plenty to prove with a month until the Derby. He has finished second in three straight starts and Rice will remove the blinkers that she thought might help last time. He’ll likely go to the lead early but others on the outside will be sure to join him. He needs to take a much-needed step forward off a short layoff.
8- Lord Miles
After an encouraging performance in the Mucho Macho Man and a disappointing follow-up effort in the G3 Holy Bull, bettors labeled this colt a pretender going into the G3 Tampa Bay Derby. They were right, as he showed very little despite improving to earn a 79 BSF. He hasn’t necessarily done anything wrong in four career starts, but simply needs to improve drastically to have any chance here.
9- Crupi
This colt has the worst starting gate speed I’ve seen in some time, and his underachieving results reflect that. Based on running ability alone, there’s no way that this Pletcher runner should be a maiden through six career starts. His trainer’s confidence to ship him to Fair Grounds for the G2 Risen Star is notable, as were the bettors’ inclinations to make him an outside contender at 13-1, but he gave up 18 lengths at the start and flew home to take seventh. If he can ever manage to put all the pieces together…
10- Uncle Jake
He wasn’t good enough to stay in California for Bob Baffert, but this colt worked wonders for Brittany Russell in his Laurel debut, romping home to break his maiden by 9 ½ lengths. Jockey Jevian Toledo is traveling from Maryland to take the mount, but it’s still difficult to see the horse as anything more than an early pace presence here.
11- Classic Catch
This colt is tough to analyze. In four starts, Pletcher has never shown any signs of giving this runner a shot at the Derby trail, keeping him in maiden races at two and optional claiming competition earlier this year. A two-length win at 1 ⅛ miles last time out seemed to encourage the trainer, however, and Trevor McCarthy will take the mount. He’ll have to improve to contend here, but his presence alongside two other Pletcher runners is perplexing enough to make one worry a little.
12- Mr. Swagger
This colt won a clean Aqueduct maiden race at 6 ½ furlongs before taking on the G3 Gotham, which turned out to be an incomprehensible nightmare. He didn’t take a step forward there, likely because of a bump at the break, and didn’t increase his ceiling as a result. He could prove to be an early pace presence with a clean start this time, but the distance is still a big question.
13- Hit Show
It’s always tempting to go against a favorite on the far outside, but it’s important to understand what that will look like. With an exclusively midpack running style through four career starts, the 13-post could hurt this Brad Cox trainee significantly. When he easily defeated fellow runner Arctic Arrogance in the G3 Withers last time out, he did so in a fairly mundane race with a perfect trip. With plenty of new faces and a potentially wide trip facing him in this one, it’s hard to expect improvement on that 91 BSF. Maybe the door is open.
Order: 9 1 13 5
Let’s get weird. I think Crupi gets it together here. There’s no reason to suspect that the maiden will overcome his gate troubles, but I’m looking for a runner likely to improve and he seems so close to breaking through. I’ll take a chance against a vulnerable field. Dreamlike has obvious potential as another maiden with some flashy performances, but unlike Crupi, I’m worried that this Pletcher trainee has found his ceiling. Taking another step forward could be tough to bet on at a short price. Hit Show is a very solid favorite after a professional win in the G3 Withers, but a wide trip in a crowded field seems likely here.