There’s great racing around the country this weekend, with Churchill Downs and Belmont offering some excellent contests to compete for the public’s attention. As a result, I’ve decided to provide analysis for the four stakes races at Churchill in addition to my usual Belmont coverage. I ‘m looking at these races anyway, so I might as well share my thoughts.
Race 8
Bashford Manor Stakes (G3), Six Furlongs on the Dirt
Juvenile stakes races are completely unique events in horse racing. All of the horses are usually coming off of wins, and they’re more unpredictable and likely to improve dramatically. There seems to be a main threat in this one, and I couldn’t find a way to beat him:
6- Cazadero
This horse seems like the real deal based on his first start. He dueled for the lead early and had the entire field put away by the time he entered the stretch. From there, he displayed another gear and pulled away. Someone in this field could improve to contend with him, but if he maintains his form, no one should surpass him.
3- Gatsby
This colt was forced to check soon after the start and still ran a solid race, running down a heavy favorite to take the win in what was effectively a two-horse race. Tyler Gaffalione isn’t a bad pickup for trainer Juan Alvarado shipping from Gulfstream, and this one hasn’t raced since April. These two-year-olds tend to improve more dramatically than other horses, and time is on his side here.
4- Hyperfocus
Though I suspect this one is a step below his Gulfstream counterpart, Todd Pletcher’s colt may have learned a lesson or two in his first start. He came out of the gate slow but closed well to break his maiden. Irad Ortiz is at Belmont today, but John Velasquez fills in to ride, and this one could always improve in the barn of a top-notch trainer.
5- Herd Immunity
This Peter Miller trainee is the only horse shipping in from California, and while the 49 BSF in his first start is underwhelming, the race was professional. If he was still a horse running 49 Beyers, I don’t suspect that Peter Miller would have shipped him across the country to race in graded stakes competition.
Order: 6 3 4 5
Cazadero had the most impressive debut in this group and should continue to move forward for Steve Asmussen. Rain likely wouldn’t hurt his chances either, given the 401 Tomlinson for the wet. Gatsby and Hyperfocus are somewhat strange in that they don’t have Beyers representing their performances down at Gulfstream, but both have a chance to improve and contend with the favorite. Herd Immunity isn’t impressive on paper, but it’s possible he’s improved since breaking his maiden at Santa Anita for Peter Miller.
Race 9
Fleur de Lis Handicap (G2), 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Can Midnight Bisou run down Serengeti Empress? That’s the question that this race will answer at the wire. Races like this one, that set out to answer a single, straightforward question, are the ones that bring this sport to life. My top four:
5- Midnight Bisou
The clock is striking for potential underdogs in this one. With controversy swirling around four-year-old colt Maximum Security, this mare is arguably the best horse in the country right now. Last year, she won seven straight races before finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff behind upset winner Blue Prize. To begin her five-year-old season, she ran in the inaugural Saudi Cup, finishing second behind Maximum Security and collecting a $3.5 million prize. This will be her first race since, and there’s no reason to suspect she’s taken a step back in any way.
4- Serengeti Empress
If the potential rain in Louisville leads to a sloppy track, this filly may just have enough early speed to pull off an upset. Her strategy has been clear from the very beginning of her career: never stop running. Her incredible early speed has won her several big races, including the 2019 Kentucky Oaks. Her last start in the Apple Blossom Handicap was a poor showing, but can be excused because she didn’t get the lead. She’ll certainly get the lead to herself here, but holding on will be the real challenge. On her best day, it would take a very special horse to run her down.
1- Go Google Yourself
This mare has run consistently well at lower levels and steps up here after a disappointing showing in the Apple Blossom Handicap. This will be a difficult task, and she’s likely not good enough to contend with the two top horses, but she’s in a good position to fight for show money.
3- Chocolate Kisses
This is another filly that performs well at lower levels than this stakes race. She performed surpassingly well in the Shawnee, finishing second behind Dunbar Road, and Mark Casse gives her another test in this race against a pair of superstars. A lot is being asked of this filly, but she’ll likely run well within herself.
Order: 5 4 1 3
I think Serengeti Empress is going to give the reigning queen of the dirt a run for her money, especially on a wet track. However, at the end of the day, I think that Midnight Bisou, as of this February, is simply a step above her and every other female she’ll have to run against this year.
Race 10
Stephen Foster Stakes (G2), 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
This is setting up to be a very enjoyable three-horse race between Tom’s d’Etat, By My Standards and Owendale. I handicap this race as I do every other, but I can’t help but allow my personal feelings to affect my top four:
8- Owendale
I would like to be clear that my top selection in this race is being made on the basis of my personal favoritism. I’m aware that that’s not very professional, but I don’t care much when Owendale is involved. This colt is by far my favorite horse currently running. I like everything about him; he’s an honest, deep closing horse that wins when he’s supposed to. However, there is some modicum of logic behind my reasoning. In his first race as a four-year-old, the Blame Stakes, he was the only horse to successfully close in a race where the pace remained intact. He flew in the stretch to catch long shot Everfast, who had previously beaten him in a photo in the Preakness. He earned a 99 BSF for that effort, and in a race setting up better for his running style, he may be able to improve. He’s found success when going this distance, and Brad Cox runners do very well in their second start off of this type of layoff. If readers don’t believe he can turn the tables on Tom’s d’Etat after finishing second to him in the G1 Clark, I don’t want to get in the way. I’m merely publicizing my win bet, to whatever end.
5- Tom’s d’Etat
This horse is always the one to beat. In his six-year-old season, he was nearly perfect and rarely recorded a BSF below 100. He finished his season by winning the G1 Clark, finishing ahead of fellow runner Owendale. This horse is a special talent that will almost certainly enter the Breeders’ Cup if he’s healthy this fall. He’s the main threat in what figures to be a three-horse race.
6- By My Standards
As a four-year-old, this colt hasn’t put a hoof out of place, winning three straight races in impressive fashion. In his last start, he defeated a wide open field in the Oaklawn Handicap to earn a 102 BSF. That puts him well into contention here and makes him one of the three main threats for trainer William Bret Calhoun.
2- Pirate’s Punch
If the pace holds up on the front end, then this gelding could be dangerous. Mike Smith is here for Midnight Bisou, but picks up a mount here that will likely establish the pace. He’s never run this far before, but he’s demonstrated ability dueling and has proven particularly dangerous with uncontested leads at lower levels. I don’t believe he deserves win consideration, but he may be close at the end.
Order: 8 5 6 2
Tom’s d’Etat is certainly the one to beat in this race, but I’ll take a chance against him with Owendale, who can improve entering his four-year-old season in his second start of 2020. By My Standards has a chance to win as well, making this a very entertaining race with more than one legitimate contender.
Race 11
Regret Stakes (G3), 1 ⅛ Miles on the Turf
After several stakes featuring talented, but obvious, runners, Churchill is offering a wide open race here to end the day. A case can be made for nearly every runner in this 13-horse field, and every bettor should manage to find some value somewhere. My top four:
5- Crystal Cliffs (Fr)
In this filly’s first race in North America a month ago, she performed very well to take a conditional allowance. The 85 BSF makes her one of the top contenders here, and John Velasquez returns to ride. He and Graham Motion work exceptionally well together, and this horse’s running style is effective regardless of the conditions on the track.
1- Dominga
This is the first of two contenders I spotted coming out of the Tepin Stakes. In that race, she was closing very well in a crowd of horses before a gap eventually closed and she was forced to check. She still made up ground but couldn’t do much better than sixth, and is entering her second start following a layoff, a very favorable angle for Brad Cox. Shaun Bridgmohan returns to ride his regular mount.
11- Witez
She couldn’t catch Crystal Cliffs in her first start off of a layoff, but her performance deserves recognition nonetheless. She made a similar move to her slightly faster counterpart, demonstrating improvement on her performances earlier in the year. In her second start of this meet, there’s no reason she can’t contend with these, as her running style may even help her overcome a wide post position.
12- Pass the Plate
In the Tepin, this filly ran wide around the track but closed fast to take third in a photo. Based on that trip, she can probably run better in future starts. However, she draws the outside post position again here, and it’s likely that history repeats itself, despite Julien Leparoux’s best efforts for trainer Paul McGee.
Order: 5 1 11 12
In a race like this, it helps to try to identify runners coming out of key races. I’ve decided that the Tepin Stakes and a conditional allowance on May 31 are both races that will produce runners suitable for this field. Crystal Cliffs should handle the competition well in her second start in the U.S. Dominga had a tough trip last time out and should improve with better luck. Witez ran well in her last start despite not catching Crystal Cliffs, and should contend with other runners in here. Meanwhile, Pass the Plate should be able to better his performance last time out while going wide, although there are obvious concerns that something similar might happen again.