Category: Analysis

Race 12

Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt

1- Tacitus

Emma: Tacitus has an excellent jockey-trainer combo with Jose Ortiz and Mott. This horse has the necessary speed figures and has them at a pretty consistent rate. He has lost to Global Campaign. By My Standards, and Maximum Security (twice). He has pretty good workouts, but Tacitus is a classic lead horse. If he doesn’t get the lead to himself, he is bound to fade. I don’t believe he will win.

Lucas: very good

I think my guests have this one cornered. Tacitus is a very good horse, but he doesn’t often deliver on the biggest stages. When there’s an equally talented horse running against him, he doesn’t often have the heart to put them away. In this race, there are several that are plainly superior to him, and improvement is unlikely. read more

Race 11

Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Turf

1- Arklow

After failing to secure a victory for over a year, the old Arklow seemed to come back last time out in the G3 Kentucky Turf Cup. He didn’t beat much that day, but it was a much improved performance over what he had been doing previously. There are some powerful Europeans in this race that he’s struggled against in the past, but his return to form can’t hurt his chances.

2- Magical (Ire)

I’ve been waiting two years to see this mare race again. Back in 2018, she and fellow superfilly Enable put on the American contingent to shame in one of the most exciting Breeders’ Cup races in recent memory. It doesn’t seem like she’s lost a step since I’ve last seen her, as she’s recently taken on some of the best turf horses in the world and won more often than not. She’s brilliant, and I look forward to watching her again. read more

Race 10

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

1- Ce Ce

Emma: Ce Ce seems to be in a bit of a rut as of late. Her speed figures have been on a downward trend, but I have hope for her now that she has recently switched to good ol’ Johnny V. Her workouts have been pretty good and she has shown that when she is on her game, she is capable of beating other horses in the field (Point of Honor and Ollie’s Candy). If Johnny V can get her back on her game, she is a formidable opponent, but we shall see. read more

Race 9

Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Turf

1- Circus Maximus (Ire)

When he finished fourth in this race last year, he was entering off his best performance ever. He was in peak condition and couldn’t seal the deal, and now he’s entering this year off a poor finish in a top-tier turf race at Ascot. Let’s try to find another European this year.

2- Kameko

Well that didn’t take long. The Breeders’ Cup, particularly with Europeans, really comes down to who’s entering in peak condition. This colt is coming off the best race of his life and has steadily been improving all year. He’s one to consider seriously. read more

Race 7

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 3/16 Miles on the Turf

1- Starship Jubilee

Before her last race, this mare would have had to improve a little to have a chance. That performance against the boys in the Woodbine Mile was very impressive, however, and qualifies her as a contender here. She has a stalking style that’s suited to any situation, but I’m not sure of the quality of the horses she was beating up there in Canada,

2- Sistercharlie (Ire)

It may seem like she’s over the hill at this point, but that’s what people said about Got Stormy earlier this year too. The truth is that she’s one of the best turfers in recent memory, and while she’ll have to get back to some of her better performances last year to win here, I’m not ruling it out entirely. She’ll likely be overbet on that premise though. read more

Race 6

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Dirt

1- Art Collector

Lucas: very good horse, might want a little more distance

I liked him in the Preakness, but that was apparently a little too far for him, which explains the cutback. There’s not too much to say about this one, because he’s a reliable pick. He’s a professional that can certainly make a difference here, but it’s notable that he’ll have to take a small step forward against older to win.

2- Sharp Samurai

Lucas: great horse, odds, J/T combo (not a closer) read more

This race is absurdly wide open, to the point that dart throwing might be as effective as handicapping. Potentials profits abound.

Race 5

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Turf

1- Big Runnuer

Lucas: bit slow, but a good J/T combo (success with early speed)

This is one of those horses that I dismiss out of hand for weak speed figures and an early running style, and then they somehow wire the field. He’s been running really well in several wiring efforts recently out west, but his figures have been consistently light in comparison to others in this field. I believe he loses a duel as well as a stretch drive to superior opponents here. read more

The Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint can sometimes be a little overshadowed by other events on the massive Saturday card. This rendition, however, could be one for the ages, given its collective star power. Several extremely talented sprinters, new and old, have made their way onto the scene this year, setting up for an excellent race.

Emma Moquin and Lucas Ludgate will be weighing in as guests with me for this race and many others today. They’re arguably the two best students of the game I’ve happened to have, and they’ll be giving analysis for races all day for this epic event. read more