Category: Analysis

Belmont Analysis: Thursday, June 3, 2021

I hear the rain on my bedroom window this morning and I hope it ceases some time soon. The temporary return of Paddy’s Picks at Belmont will likely be hampered by some moisture in the track this afternoon, but similar conditions didn’t hurt me last weekend.

On Saturday, May 29, my father and I went to Belmont for the second time since 2019 to watch Power Up Paynter. As 0.1% shareholders in the horse’s interests through the MyRaceHorse service, we signed up for a lottery that allowed us box seats for the day and paddock access for the sixth race. There was slight confusion about this lottery at first, as my mother expressed little interest in raising a dog when the “P.U.P. lottery” came up in family group chats. read more

Nittany Buy-Ins: Preakness Stakes Preview w/ Emma Moquin

First and foremost, I would like to apologize to anyone who had to read my Kentucky Derby analysis (special shoutout to Chris Reynolds), but the good thing about hitting rock bottom is that there is nowhere else to go but up. Here is my analysis of the Preakness where I hope to have some more luck today. Good luck to everyone and happy betting. 🙂

1- Ram

This horse is a little rough. It is not an encouraging sign that Irad Ortiz jumped off of this horse to ride the 5, Midnight Bourbon, and was replaced by an inferior jockey, Santana. I am also not overly fond of trainer D. Wayne Lukas. While this horse has done well in his last two races, his speed figures are terrible, with his highest being an 81, which will not cut it. Overall, I don’t think that this horse is going to win the race today. read more

Preakness Stakes Preview: May 15, 2021

I wonder how much money Medina Spirit has swindled out of people over the years with his little doping scheme. I bet he thought he was real clever about it; he sure pulled the wool over Bob Baffert’s eyes. He was dumbfounded — never saw it coming — and he’s been getting tricked by these horses for years. He was totally outfoxed when Charlatan and Gamine started shooting up behind his back at Oaklawn last year, and he wasn’t even around when Justify intimidated the California Racing Board into sweeping another failed test under the rug before the 2018 Derby. Poor Bob. Every time the guy leaves the state of California, his horses start abusing illegal medications. read more

New Wave: Novice Handicappers Bet the 2021 Kentucky Derby

My apprentice handicappers have to have their say as well, especially on racing’s biggest day. For the Kentucky Derby, four of my friends continue to hone their craft and tackle one of the toughest events of the year. 

It may serve as more of a warmup for them as a very active summer of gambling approaches, and what better way to get going than a 20-horse stampede?

Niko Konstantellis

Horses That Have a Shot: Mandaloun, Medina Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Highly Motivated

Horses That Won’t Win: Like the King, Keepmeinmind, Sainthood, O Besos, Dynamic One, Hidden Stash, Bourbonic, Soup and Sandwich

My Pick

Rock Your World and Midnight Bourbon create a bad trip for Essential Quality, his first bad trip ever.  Essential Quality is the favorite for a reason and will get out in the front of the pack but will be beaten today.  Rock Your World got the nod from jockey Joel Rosario and he’s getting the nod from me today.   read more

Paddy’s Picks 2021 Kentucky Derby Preview

I know what you’re all here for. At this point, I would usually take this opportunity to talk about the Kentucky Derby, its meaning to horse racing and its deep roots in American culture. But I’m approaching the end of another semester in college here, and to be honest, I’m a little fatigued. 

After months of building up hype for Fordham Athletics, which I dutifully cover for The Fordham Observer, I’m finally covering an event that needs no introduction. This is the Kentucky Derby, the Run For The Roses, the Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports. To try to excite my audience about this race would be to pour a bucket of stagnant water into a river. So for once, I’m not going to wax poetic about the feats of Secretariat or Tom Durkin or Hunter S. Thompson. All that came yesterday. Now is the time to analyze some horses. Welcome back folks. read more

On the Derby Trail: Saturday, March 6, 2021

What better way to unwind from a chaotic writing schedule than to write for fun? After several months of fervent sports coverage for The Fordham Observer, I recently managed to find a sliver of time this weekend to return to Paddy’s Picks. In the span of one hour this evening, three prep races for the Kentucky Derby will be run at three different tracks across the country, and I’ve taken the time to analyze all three.

Race of the Day: Oaklawn Park, January 29, 2021

Contrary to popular belief, and sometimes to my own surprise, my coursework and extracurricular responsibilities at Fordham University actually take up a significant amount of my time. Another semester is about to begin, and for the past few days, I’ve been mulling over potential solutions to a nonexistent problem: How do I subject myself to increasingly stressful, soul-crushing life as a young adult while also finding time for my horse racing website?

This is the second of two solutions I came up with. The first is a historical series, of which I’ll be releasing the first episode later today. “Millenials Legends: The Brief Resurgence of the Superhorse” will tell the story of six star horses that took over the American dirt racing scene between 2014 and 2018. It’s an exciting longform endeavor that I look forward to preparing, but I needed something more causal to accompany it. That brought me to my second solution, the “Race of the Day,” which is exactly what it sounds like. read more

The Casual Bet: Pegasus World Cup Dirt “Analysis”

This Pegasus World Cup Dirt edition of the Casual Bet features an alarming rate of competency, which is undoubtedly upsetting for readers accustomed to sillier content. After two days of searching, I only managed to recruit two uninformed individuals to contribute their opinions, so I had to call in a few ringers.

This is Kristina Stevanovic’s third appearance on Paddy’s Picks, and in her time as a contributor, she has developed a level of enthusiasm unparalleled by any other guest. Meanwhile, Chris Murray is making his debut for this race, and while he does intend to learn the sport at some point, he’s totally uninformed at this time. read more

The Casual Bet: Pegasus World Cup Turf “Analysis”

The Pegasus World Cup may not be as popular as the Kentucky Derby or other big racing events in the U.S., but casual racing fans still make up a portion of the audience. Those tuning in Saturday may want to know more about the runners in this important race, and the Casual Bet will serve them well. Fortunately, people without information can still form opinions.

As some of my readers may know, I dedicate the majority of my time as a writer to The Fordham Observer, the college newspaper for Fordham College at Lincoln Center, where I serve as Sports & Health Editor. To properly “analyze” the 2021 running of the Pegasus World Cup Turf, I’ve asked five of my fellow editors to provide their insight. read more