Category: Analysis

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

As if 12-horse turf sprints aren’t challenging enough for handicappers, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint combines the intricacies of such a race with the unpredictability of two-year-olds.

Last year, this race wasn’t much of a challenge to figure out when Golden Pal proved himself far superior to any runner on either side of the globe. But Wesley Ward has three runners in this one and there are 11 more beside them, making this one of the tougher races of the entire two-day event. At least the value is there, and bettors would be well-advised to go looking for it. read more

Saratoga Analysis: Thursday, July 22, 2021

It turns out that returning to Saratoga after last weekend’s deflating events at Monmouth was well worth it. The decision has lifted my spirits considerably, and it would be foolish of me not to return with analysis for another day at the Spa. Unfortunately, my Wednesday evenings are not as free as my Tuesdays this summer, so I regret to inform readers that the written portion of Paddy’s Picks will be delayed or omitted in sections today. 

The picks are available for each race and are listed below, but I simply didn’t have time to write out my explanations. I’ll try to do so today, so make sure to come back throughout the day for updates, but I wanted to get selections out to readers promptly since they were available. Let’s take a look at the card: read more

Saratoga Analysis: Wednesday, July 21, 2021

I just can’t seem to stay away. After a supremely deflating Haskell Stakes, in which a deserving winner was DQed and a fan favorite horse and jockey nearly died, it was either time for me to step away from racing or return to it in the hopes of finding some form of redemption. After a good deal of rain yesterday, let’s see what the Spa has to offer on this nondescript Wednesday morning.

Race 1 (CANCELED)

Jonathan Kiser Novice (Hurdles) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 2 1/16 Miles over Hurdles

3- The Mean Queen (Ire) read more

Horses to Watch: Saratoga, July 17, 2021

As much as I wanted to do a full-card analysis of Saratoga today, a mix of Haskell analysis, other duties earlier this week, and general fatigue kept me from making it happen. As a small consolation to readers, I’ve put some of my notes about today into written form. These aren’t necessarily picks, but simply horses that I intend to keep an eye on as the season progresses. On a big day like today, there’s plenty to observe and learn from, and horses with bright futures appear in nearly every race. read more

Paddy’s Picks 2021 Haskell Stakes Analysis

The 2021 running of the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes will be about as good as it can get without including a Triple Crown race winner. The connections of Medina Spirit, Rombauer, and Essential Quality have all decided to forgo the July feature at Monmouth, but several highly talented runners do more than enough to strengthen the field.

Where the Triple Crown winners are absent, the runner-ups are all in attendance. Hot Rod Charlie will go off as the likely favorite after a stunning place finish in the G1 Belmont Stakes. Meanwhile, Mandaloun (the potential Derby winner in time) and Midnight Bourbon round out a formidable group of familiar faces. Meanwhile, newcomer Following Sea is an interesting outsider stretching out for Todd Pletcher after a pair of blowout wins in sprints. read more

Saratoga Analysis: Friday, July 16, 2021

Adapt and overcome, right? My advice to bet light on the first day at Saratoga may have hurt some bettors, but it sure served me well. With a few exceptions, my handicapping yesterday was scattered and inconsistent, and I’m approaching the card today with even more caution. That being said, I think there’s a lot to learn from going into the second day.

The most obvious lesson I learned is that Kentucky shippers appear to be plainly superior to New York horses, at least in the early stages of this meet. In open company contests, not counting well-traveled turf star Golden Pal, five winners on Opening Day shipped from Kentucky. The more nuanced lesson concerns pace handicapping, and in all honesty, I’m not quite smart enough to crack it just yet. The fact of the matter, though, is that the predictable pace setups at Belmont are nothing like the ones at Saratoga. That one may require more thought on my end.  read more

Saratoga Analysis: Thursday, July 15, 2021

I think I missed the gleaming white fences most, the ones shrouded under ancient trees in a wide expanse of land that a suburbanite from Long Island could hardly fathom. I like walking around and watching people go about their business. The horses are all beautiful up here, as if touched by magic waters, but the crowd is always humorously mixed. The usual track people are here today, slightly less rowdy out of respect, but there are others too. Smartly dressed men in suits sit alongside budding families alongside ambitious college kids looking for a spot to put their beer pong table, though I feel that they may have trouble on Opening Day. Sam the Bugler just wished me luck and cryptically told me he was “working with tools of ignorance.” I love it all. It might not be a place to make money, but it’s a place to make a living, if that makes sense. read more

Paddy’s Picks 2021 Belmont Stakes Analysis

The Belmont Stakes is returning to 12 furlongs as God intended. The field for this year’s Test of Champions is wanting in size but not in talent, as several top runners from this year’s Triple Crown return to lock horns at a new and unfamiliar distance. When Sir Winston defeated Tacitus in the 2019 Belmont, I felt all-knowing, and when Tapwrit won in 2017, I felt hopelessly lost. Let’s see where I find myself this year handling this top-notch field:

Race 11

Belmont Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/2 Miles on the Dirt read more

Belmont Analysis: Saturday, June 5, 2021

Paddy’s Picks began nearly a year ago with analysis of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. We now come full circle with another stacked card at my favorite track on the planet. I’ve been mulling over the Belmont Stakes for weeks now, but my attention is now diverted by a massive amount of talent at every division, including both Pegasus World Cup winners and more Chad Brown turf horses than one can possibly profit from. Days like these breathe life into every racing fan and inspire hope in an uncertain future for the sport. Let’s get cracking: read more

Belmont Analysis: Friday, June 4, 2021

This is the sort of Belmont card I can get used to. I’m not sure that NYRA should lean into its reputation for superior turf racing, but the fact of the matter is that there are few better places in the U.S. for such deep fields on the grass. This card features multiple graded stakes, some messy allowance and maiden races and enough handicapping strategies to tide over any handicapper — at least until the next Racing Form comes out. Without much more chatter, let’s take a look at the first: read more