Category: Analysis

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Race 7

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Turf

1- Going to Vegas

She’s now a G1 stakes winner and seems to be rounding into form at the right time, but I have serious doubts about the quality of the field she wired in the Rodeo Drive last time out. Her best chance here is to run this field off their feet, which actually doesn’t seem impossible but is also less likely than it was last time out. 

2- Pocket Square (GB)

Beyond the name recognition of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, issues abound for this runner. She seems a step slow against these and lacks significant class as an overqualified G3 winner last time out. Moreover, she rarely stretches out in distance and her one attempt at 1 5/16 miles in Europe last year was discouraging. There are better options. read more

Handicapping Roundtable: BC Dirt Mile

Two retired high school baseball players. Two talented writers with a roughly equivalent passion for The Fordham Observer. Two quirky people with their fair share of misadventures. One Big Ass horse race. Buckle in folks.

Race 6

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Dirt

George McKnight

Hi all. It’s been quite some time since my last feature on the Paddy’s Picks blog. I’m glad to be back covering the Breeder’s Cup. I’m analyzing the Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile. Not the greatest name, but what can you do? Anyway, the post time of this race is 4:19 on Saturday, Nov. 6. Eight horses three years and older are posted to compete for a million dollar purse.  read more

Handicapping Roundtable: BC Filly and Mare Sprint

From my mother, Joan Moquin: It’s that time of year again when the air turns crisp, Belmont weather requires a jacket and hot toddy to endure the day’s card and all eyes turn to sunny California for the Breeder’s Cup.

From my sister, Emma Moquin: Very curious. I put Bella Sofia on top for that race, which is a hot take, but I couldn’t pick Gamine for the 1000th time in my life.

Race 4

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

Race 5

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five Furlongs on the Turf

1- Glass Slippers (GB)

The reigning champion in this race has been a little flat in 2021, finishing third in three races in Europe. Trainer Kevin Ryan gave her a similar schedule to the one from 2020 to prepare her, but she hasn’t been nearly as sharp. Her win last year was more a result of fortunate circumstances than her ability, and she’s an easy one to fade this time around.

2- Emaraaty Ana (GB)

My technique in Breeders’ Cup races is to find a runner rounding into condition, and this gelding seems razor sharp. His most recent performance in the Betfair Sprint Cup was his first G1 win and he won it with a career-best 120 Timeform Rating. He seems a little more comfortable at six furlongs but has also been very effective at five. I would love to know how she handles turns, but the fact that that’s the primary concern is an encouraging sign. read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

Any real reader of Paddy’s Picks can predict the direction that I’m going in for this one. But stick around anyway; I’ve been told that I’m at my most entertaining when I’m not trying to be. I won’t even take up too much of your time — there’s not much to go over here.

Reigning champion Gamine has managed to scare away most of her competition, and if she loses, nearly every multi-race bet in the country will collapse on the first leg. For those seeking value, it’s probably best to skip this one and watch. read more

Breeders’ Cup Friday Master List

First, I owe my readers a long overdue apology. In my defense, I really thought things were going well before hunger, friendship, the nation of Mongolia, unexpectedly compelling persuasion, and a fair bit of alcohol intervened.

At this time last year, my analysis for the Friday card of the 2020 Breeders’ Cup was ready and available to readers. My guests were all accounted for and the rest of my picks were essentially figured out for Saturday. All I had to do was write. 

I was feeling extraordinarily confident as I stood on the precipice of something great. Sure, it would cost me a Friday night of galavanting, but what was one night? This was the Breeders’ Cup, the sporting event I loved most in this world, and I was projecting it to be one of the most successful weekends in this website’s history.  read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

I’m glad this race is on last on Breeders’ Cup Friday, as it is the most interesting of the juvenile races. A very deep field of juvenile turfers seems poised to put on a wild race, and picking four runners still isn’t enough to narrow down the contenders.

Sometimes, talented turf runners at two have a habit of disappearing later in their career. Therefore, it’s important to appreciate these precocious stars while they’re in the spotlight.

Race 10

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, 1 Mile on the Turf read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

The quality of this field dips precipitously with the withdrawal of favorite Jack Christopher, but there’s still plenty to like in a race that often features future Kentucky Derby runners. Last year’s running, the first meeting between Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie, was a classic before the Classic was even on their horizons.

I’m not exactly reinventing the wheel here, but there are a few long shots that interest me underneath. It’s always a little scary to put those outsiders on top, but if the mood strikes me, readers should know that I may end up putting a little money on an improbable runner or two. read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

The scariest part of any Breeders’ Cup is the race where none of the contenders seem good enough to win. The field for the Juvenile Fillies Turf isn’t the strongest but it’s deep, as 14 runners will try to improve on the world stage. It’s a very difficult race to figure out and will likely be the one that busts everyone’s multi-race bets.

I’m choosing to embrace the chaos a little with a bit of an outsider underneath, but I’m a little uncomfortable with the fact that I ended up picking most of the logical runners in what may end up being an illogical race. Such is the Breeders’ Cup. read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

What some may see as an easy romp for Echo Zulu may actually prove to be an entertaining, if compact, running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. There are definitely a few runners in the field that don’t hold a candle to the precocious Asmussen filly, but there are a few with merit that may be overlooked come post time.

All that being said, she might win by eight.

Race 7
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

1- Desert Dawn

She showed very little scooting up the rail for show last time out in the G2 Chandelier. A stylish maiden win at Del Mar two starts back was nice, but she’ll need to improve dramatically to have a chance here.  read more