Category: Analysis

Make a Case: Guest Handicappers Defend Every Horse in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic

With such a crowded, competitive field in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, I figured that all of you could use a little extra help. Continuing a format I debuted at the Kentucky Derby this year, I randomly assigned 15 guests to make winning cases for every horse in this year’s Classic field.

I’m happy to report that many of my contributors stepped up their game to tackle this assignment, which required them to support runners they might not have otherwise. It’s an interesting handicapping exercise that requires them to look for angles, instead of finding them via confirmation bias. More important than its usefulness, I also simply find their analysis entertaining. I hope my readers do as well. read more

Paddy’s Picks Analysis: 2024 Breeders’ Cup, Day 2

The staggered time zones have provoked Breeders’ Cup organizers to push up the Breeders’ Cup Classic to the eighth race on the Del Mar card. I find this decision to be a ridiculous disservice to the races that will follow it, but am nevertheless immensely excited for the stacked card ahead.

There is no way for me to effectively set the stage for an event of this magnitude. The only way for readers to truly appreciate this year’s Breeders’ Cup is to experience it, either through the Racing Form or at the betting windows. Let’s get right into it. read more

Race of the Day: 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic Analysis

I feel like I say this every year, but this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is one of the most exciting dirt fields I’ve ever seen assembled. In addition to American superstars and an increasingly ambitious Japanese contingent, a European turf superstar will also try and make the switch to capture the crown jewel of this historic 14-race event.

In a rare case, it seems like every corner of this Classic division is holding up its end this year. Fierceness and Sierra Leone were the two best American three-year-olds this year (besides Thorpedo Anna), and both are in this field. Japanese superstars Derma Sotogake and Ushba Tesoro are both returning for another crack at a West Coast championship, and dynamic three-year-old Forever Young is also taking another jump across the Pacific. read more

Paddy’s Picks Analysis: 2024 Breeders’ Cup, Day 1

Welcome to the Breeders’ Cup! Over the next two days, I’ll do my very best to guide you through my picks for 14 virtually impossible races featuring the best horses in every discipline of racing. For fans of the sport, it’s a magical event. For handicappers, it’s a glorious nightmare.

The first day of the Breeders’ Cup has been reserved for juvenile races for several years now, and I think it’s an effective way to break up the massive two-day event. The horses running today represent the future of racing three different continents, a wonderful way to kick things off before turning to the present titans tomorrow. read more

Race of the Day: 2024 Travers Stakes Analysis

After dedicating so much time in my full-card analysis discussing the fanfare and history surrounding the Travers Stakes, it should be clear to anyone who wasn’t already painfully aware that I tend to be sentimental about sports. This isn’t really a matter of debate.

If you can believe it, this occasionally gets me into trouble with other sports fans. I get a lot of ‘rose-colored glasses’ accusations, or sometimes even an outright dismissal on the grounds that I’m being unrealistic or contrarian. I don’t even disagree with people who make those claims. I like radical decisions and big risks and I’m accepting of failure when they don’t work. I want to see something incredible every time I watch a sporting event, and I don’t see the harm in rooting for such things. read more

Saratoga Analysis: Saturday, August 24, 2024

As I write this in Oceanside on Travers Day morning, thousands of people are packing into Saratoga Racecourse to get a seat for one of the greatest racing events of the year. I don’t want you to take me for a slouch. I’m a fervent table gatherer at Saratoga myself, having made the run countless times on annual trips to the Spa. Even for me though, those at the track today strike me as radicals.

There will come a year where I eventually go to the Travers and brave the capacity crowd. There are also days when I envy racegoers who can go to Saratoga whenever they want, and there may be a moment later today where I feel that same way. But as I brave the dawn and toss and turn on my couch on Long Island, writing to all of you this morning, I must admit that I’m rather content. read more

Race of the Day: 2024 Whitney Stakes Analysis

This year’s running of the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga is one of the most intriguing in recent history, revolving around one idea: No one seems to be afraid of National Treasure. 

In past years, daunting favorites have consistently deterred most challengers, leading to very small fields. This year, 11 runners have entered to take a shot at the leader of the weak older males division. As a handicapper, it’s hard to ask for much more.

As usual, I’ll be providing full analysis of the race in post position order. In addition, I’ve gone back and added a sentence for each horse to take the rain and sloppy track into account. The weather is sure to shake up this field, and I wanted to provide readers with up-to-date information. Let’s get to it. read more

Race of the Day: 2024 Haskell Stakes Analysis

My relationship with Monmouth Park has soured somewhat in the past year or so, mostly because of my inept handicapping when I go there. Nevertheless, the G1 Haskell remains one of the biggest races of the year, necessitating a return to Paddy’s Picks.

This year’s field in Jersey is a ton of fun, as it features the typical lot of local runners facing off against the best three-year-olds in the country. This might seem like a silly arrangement, and it is, but I’d much rather watch an eight-horse race with three stiffs than a five-horse race with a wire-to-wire winner.  read more

Paddy’s Picks Analysis, Picks For The 2024 Belmont Stakes

Greetings from Saratoga Springs! For those of you who unaware, due to renovations at Belmont Racetrack, this year’s Belmont Stakes is being held at Saratoga Racecourse for the first time in the race’s history. I’m lucky enough to be in attendance and writing to you from the track this morning.

While this year’s Belmont Stakes field isn’t anything special, the historic nature of this venue change is certain to elevate it, while also transforming it into a different event. From a sporting standpoint, cutting the race back to 1 ¼ miles makes it more closely resemble the Travers in August. There has been talk of shortening the marathon race for a long time, and while I can understand the temporary change to accompany Saratoga, I sincerely hope it doesn’t stay this way forever. read more

Paddy’s Picks for the 2024 Preakness Stakes

The Preakness Stakes has been disappointing for me in recent years. This may sound ungrateful, and it is, but one must admit that it’s been a rough couple of years for the poor Triple Crown race.

While a winning ticket in the Kentucky Derby still eludes me, the race always promises elite competition and excitement. The Belmont Stakes is usually a wonderfully unique contest and fascinating handicapping exercise in my home state. More often than not, the Preakness doesn’t offer any of this. read more