The Casual Bet: Pegasus World Cup Turf “Analysis”

The Pegasus World Cup may not be as popular as the Kentucky Derby or other big racing events in the U.S., but casual racing fans still make up a portion of the audience. Those tuning in Saturday may want to know more about the runners in this important race, and the Casual Bet will serve them well. Fortunately, people without information can still form opinions.

As some of my readers may know, I dedicate the majority of my time as a writer to The Fordham Observer, the college newspaper for Fordham College at Lincoln Center, where I serve as Sports & Health Editor. To properly “analyze” the 2021 running of the Pegasus World Cup Turf, I’ve asked five of my fellow editors to provide their insight.

Sophie Partridge-Hicks and Roxanne Cubero are making their debuts on Paddy’s Picks for this race. The half hour Sophie took to look at these horses was the first break she’s taken in 20 years. As the Editor-in-Chief of The Observer for the 2020-21 academic year, she’s already taken great strides to improve the newspaper, and as my editor, she’s made me a better writer in a short amount of time. Asana was still the worst though.

Meanwhile, despite rooting for the Houston Astros, Roxanne Cubero repents by serving as Social Media Editor, modernizing the paper in ways that confuse me greatly. She is also a talented dancer, creating an additional source of confusion.

Layout Editor Maddie Sandholm, Copy Editor Jill Rice and Assistant Sports & Health Editor Maggie McNamara are all returning after previous appearances on Paddy’s Pick. Of the trio, only Jill has won previously, when she selected Tiz the Law to win the Travers Stakes. They’ve learned surprisingly little in their time as guest commentators, but have not lost any of their confidence or enthusiasm.

Race 11

Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 3/16 Miles on the Turf

1- Next Shares

Sophie: Reminds me of something happening down on Wall Street, possibly related to the Stock Market. This horse probably wears Patagonia Vests and loves Leonardo DiCaprio in Wolf of Wall Street. Might be a young horse who is aggressive but not consistent enough to be a winner. 

Maddie: Sounds like something a stock market dude would say when trading. Probably just going to get your hopes up for nothing when they crash.

Jill: Sounds like an ad for an insurance company or stock broker, here’s your next shares! Not sure I trust this one. (No idea how he/she/it will perform, but I don’t trust them.)

Roxanne: Sounds less like a name and more like a phrase that would end up on a “Top 10 Things You Hear in Gabelli” list. Like, if I heard an announcer “Next Shares” with a verb next to it, I’d probably think I’d need an audiology test ASAP. But I’m loving the two-word name (ex. Anna Grace).

Maggie: The name screams unclear and indecisive, two adjectives which will probably also describe this horse’s performance.

2- Breaking the Rules

Sophie: I like the intention of this name, but I feel like ‘Breaking the Rules,’ is a bit too obvious to actually have the punch I think the owners were going for. I bet this horse starts running before the race has even started just to prove they’re different.

Maddie: Ooooo a bad boy, definitely well loved outside the racetrack, but they warned you they would break the rules and they’ll definitely follow through with it.

Jill: I like it. I’m a rule-follower by nature but I think breaking the rules might be a good plan for Breaking the Rules. Also glad he doesn’t capitalize the “The.”

Roxanne: ….Are gerunds as first names becoming a thing? Not sure how I feel about it. I suppose this name is supposed to inspire a rebellious spirit, but they’re obviously a racing horse and their name is capitalized correctly.

Maggie: Nice capitalization, strong spirit of rebellion. Keep an eye on this horse.

3- Storm the Court

Sophie: After the past news cycle, this one feels like a bit too much.

Maddie: Pure energy, but super rowdy — they’re going to move very fast, but not without trampling a few people.

Jill: This one could go two ways—storm the court sounds like some basketball-winning metaphor, which would be great! Take all those medals, Storm! Or it could be like packing the court a là FDR and what Biden might do. Which is not so great. Let’s go with basketball win and say Storm will storm ahead of the rest of the pack.

Roxanne: This horse was unfortunately destined for either a courtroom or a basketball court, not the track.

Maggie: See notes for Breaking the Rules.

4- North Dakota

Sophie: I like how simple it is. I want to imagine this horse out in nature, frolicking through fields and over mountains effortlessly. Also, North Dakota is a bit of random state (at least to me) so I’m definitely curious to see how this one performs.

Maddie: Who? Sorry, I don’t know any states that aren’t on a coast line. Probably irrelevant.

Jill: North Dakota is the underdog. You think, North Dakota? They don’t win anything except lowest population! But I’ve always had a soft spot for the northern Dakota, so I have high hopes for this one. Especially if he is actually from the state.

Roxanne: I would honestly really love it if this horse was born in, like, Arizona. And if they had a twin sibling named South Dakota. Or even West Virginia. Or like, East Indiana.

Maggie: Odd choice to name a horse after one of the most irrelevant states in the US… will probably not go far. Sorry.

5- Colonel Liam

Sophie: Immediately reminds me of the Colonel in the game Clue, and I appreciate it. Probably a wise horse who smokes cigars in a library and can recite all the winners of the Pegasus Turf Cup in the last decade. Tempted to say this one is a contender, but worried they might have already seen their best days.

Maddie: Oh a colonel? But not a general… so they’re probably pretty strong, but not the best they can be yet.

Jill: Colonel Liam thinks he’s all that, but on the inside he’s actually Lieutenant Will. Some may place more confidence in him, but I have a feeling he’s more bravado than a true fighter. He isn’t the best of this race.

Roxanne: The image that immediately comes to mind is former One Direction band member Liam Payne dressed up as a redcoat.

Maggie: This has a surprisingly nice ring to it. Colonel Liam is probably lightning fast.

6- Largent

Sophie: Makes me think of laundry detergent… probably a young horse that’s part of the Gen Z “I’m going to eat tide pods,” generation.

Maddie: Maybe it’s because of the last horse, but this just sounds like they’re trying to be sergeant but didn’t quite get there.

Jill: Now that’s a fun name. It’s a word you’d think is a word because it’s easy to say, but it’s not a word. Love it. Largent, like our underdog ND, is a star in my eyes because he and his short name are underestimated by so many.

Roxanne: Even though the punctuation isn’t there, I really hope this name is pronounced “l’argent,” meaning money in French. If this is the case, they’re already my top pick. However, if it’s pronounced the way it’s spelled, they float around in the middle.

Maggie: No.

7- Aquaphobia

Sophie: I don’t know why anyone would name a horse after something that sounds like they have a phobia of water. I highly doubt any horse named after a phobia will be a winner.

Maddie: The horse is scared of the water?! I don’t think this is a triathlon though so they’re all good. Can horses even ride bikes? Or would they have a different event for the second leg? That’s probably a thought for later…

Jill: Let’s hope it doesn’t rain on Saturday! Aquaphobia only performs at his peak when it is dry out, so I think depending on the weather he might do well.

Roxanne: I get it. I’m a Capricorn (an earth sign) so I’m more partial to the general outdoors than bodies of water. But even just having the suffix “-phobia” might be setting them up for a shy and perhaps not so ambitious demeanor. 😕

Maggie: Sounds quick and snappy but I hope this horse is appropriately hydrated.

8- Anothertwistafate

Sophie: I like this one, it gives me underdog vibes. This horse probably has an inspirational story behind it and for some reason makes me think of the 2005 movie, ‘Racing Stripes,’ where a zebra becomes a competitive race horse. (Now I want to watch the movie). 

Maddie: Oof, someone doesn’t know how to use the spacebar. They’ll probably forget a major part of their racing equipment, like the… saddle or the… other racing equipment that I totally know the name of.

Jill: See, this is the kind of name I was talking about with Largent. This is in no way a word. It’s four, but spelled funky. He’s probably the child (insert right-horse-term-here) of somebody Twist and somebody Fate, so the name makes a bit more sense, but I’m only marginally convinced to support this horse winning the race.

Roxanne: Absolutely not.

Maggie: Who knows what will happen in a race with this horse! This one’s a wild card, but will almost certainly finish near the top.

9- Cross Border

Sophie: I simply don’t get this one. I really can’t imagine a jockey saying “Faster, Cross Border!” Unless it’s a pun about the finish line?

Maddie: This one probably has great stamina, the Canada border is about 300 miles from me and I bet this horse could make it there and back easy.

Jill: Let’s not get political and let’s assume the borders we’re crossing are the open ones of the Schengen Area. Cross Border, if he is indeed from Europe, is more likely to do well in a turf race (showing off my one horse fact that I think I know).

Roxanne: A trailblazer. Period.

Maggie: A little confusing. Don’t like it very much.

10- Pixelate

Sophie: Even though I’ve never seen this movie, I thought about Disney’s ‘Pixels’ immediately. I like the name, it feels both cute and cool with the ‘-ate’ on the end. Definitely curious about this one.

Maddie: Oh this is a term I know! Makes me think that the horse either needs to have a pixelated censor bar over them the entire race or they run so fast their competition will be pixels on the screen behind them.

Jill: Pixelate is a 90s kid at heart. I have no idea what that means for a horse probably born between 2017 and now, since he doesn’t remember that time, but I have hopes for him to leave his competitors pixelated in the dust (or turf, as it were).

Roxanne: Honestly, very on trend for the 2010s and the revival of Y2K. Love to see it.

Maggie: Perhaps an odd choice of name for a horse, but somehow it fits. Not particularly fear- or awe-inspiring, but expect a solid performance from this horse.

11- Say the Word

Sophie: Is this TLC’s Racehorse and a reference to their hit ‘Say My Name.’ If not, I also don’t get this one. At the very least, this horse probably experienced its coming of age in the 90s.

Maddie: Huh? What word? This horse sounds mysterious and I’d love to cheer them on but I don’t know what the word is.

Jill: Say the Word, and he’ll come running. Our only hope is that the finish line says the right word. I’d like to think the word is “third-or-fourth-place-but-aiming-higher.”

Roxanne: Sounds like a line from a Nicholas Sparks novel; you know the one. Just for that I think my seventh grade self would’ve loved this one. This past year I’ve reverted back to my middle school favorites, so…

Maggie: I feel like this could be a reference to any number of different words, none of which are particularly convincing of this horse’s ability to defeat any of its competitors.

12- Social Paranoia

Sophie: What’s up with all of these owners naming their horses after all-too-real societal phenomenons? I’m pretty sure there’s a Sci-Fi-Horror movie with the same name.

Maddie: If this horse doesn’t like being around other horses, why are they in a race? I’ll bet they run so fast that they won’t be in the crowd. Or they’re so slow that they won’t be around the others… hopefully the first one though.

Jill: Social Paranoia had better break away from the peloton (I know cycling terminology only) quickly, and if he does so, he has a good chance. But like Aquaphobia, it all depends on the luck of the race, and if he’s stuck among other horses, his chances of winning are much lower.

Roxanne: #Relatable. I think this name is doing what “Breaking the Rules” was trying to do, but like, successfully. And I love them for that.

Maggie: I can relate to this horse! For that reason alone, this one’s probably the winner.

Picks

Sophie’s Pick: 8- Anothertwistafate, 10- Pixelate and 4- North Dakota

Maddie’s Pick: 7- Aquaphobia

I’m going to go with Aquaphobia because I’m still thinking about if horses could complete a triathlon because of the biking leg… Could a custom bike be made for a horse? Oh, and they’re probably pretty fast too.

Jill’s Pick: 9- Cross Border and 6- Largent

My pick is Cross Border because I think he might be European and therefore better at this race. But I can’t get Largent out of my head, also love him. So, one of those, if your stodgy betting book allows me to pick two.

Roxanne’s Pick: 12- Social Paranoia

I’m gonna go with Social Paranoia, solely because I think they’re edgy and probably confident in knowing they’re not like the other horses. Though they’re not quite the type to befriend their competitors, I just have a really strong feeling that they are solely focused and dedicated to their craft and that’s just what makes them great. I also just feel a personal connection to it by name alone.

Maggie’s Pick: 12- Social Paranoia

This horse’s distrust of competitors and unmatched savvy will undoubtedly lead it to the top.