This Pegasus World Cup Dirt edition of the Casual Bet features an alarming rate of competency, which is undoubtedly upsetting for readers accustomed to sillier content. After two days of searching, I only managed to recruit two uninformed individuals to contribute their opinions, so I had to call in a few ringers.
This is Kristina Stevanovic’s third appearance on Paddy’s Picks, and in her time as a contributor, she has developed a level of enthusiasm unparalleled by any other guest. Meanwhile, Chris Murray is making his debut for this race, and while he does intend to learn the sport at some point, he’s totally uninformed at this time.
To fill space, I asked George McKnight and Niko Konstantellis to appear as overqualified guests on The Casual Bet. Normally, they serve as regular guests in articles like Handicapping Roundtable and New Wave, articles I’ve published in the past that feature more seasoned handicappers. As a result, I allowed them to choose how they would contribute to this unfamiliar format.
Both young men were given a choice between playing along as uninformed bettors or showing up their fellow guests with detailed analysis. Both chose the latter, creating an interesting mix of perspectives for this Pegasus World Cup Dirt edition.
Race 12
Pegasus World Cup Dirt (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
1- Sleepy Eyes Todd
Kristina: The name reminds me of voyeurism and my 12th grade English teacher, so I would avoid betting on this horse.
Chris: I have to imagine a tired horse is going to have trouble competing against well rested horses. I’m not a fan.
George: Sometimes I feel like a sleepy eyes Todd. Sounds like he’d be a tortured yet interesting vaudeville character. Anyway, I would do an exacta with this horse – maybe pair it with Knicks Go. Sleepy Eyes has been on an excellent run recently and I think he has upside.
Niko: I like this horse, fast at the distance and wins at this distance. Great jockey as well. First horse I looked at, but could be a winner.
2- Coastal Defense
Kristina: I’m thinking… fortification.
Chris: I’m not sure what is being defended but I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t give that responsibility to a horse.
George: I’m staying far away from Coastal Defense. Make love, not war. Trainer success ratio leaves a lot to be desired, and it seems like his peak has come and gone. Maybe as a long shot throw, but that’s as far as I’d go.
Niko: Middle of the pack horse with good speed but has been beat out by other horses in this race in the past. Probably will hang around In the middle of the pack.
3- Independence Hall
Kristina: Sounds like a bad movie.
Chris: Either this horse is very old or from Philadelphia and I don’t like it either way.
George: Independence Hall has basically no shot. Avoid this horse like the plague unless you’re hearing it from a divine source.
Niko: Don’t like this horse, only ran well at shorter distances. Also has an inexperienced jockey at Gulfstream.
4- Knicks Go
Kristina: Go Knicks!
Chris: As passionate of a Knicks fan as I am, I don’t see the race ending well for this poor horse.
George: Knicks Go is my horse this race. He’s been on an unparalleled run, dominating his last three races after being blown away. Can’t-miss pick here.
Niko: Go Knicks! Knicks Go! Super fast but usually races shorter races. Interesting to see if he will translate to the distance.
5- Jesus’ Team
Kristina: It would feel so wrong to bet against Jesus’ Team.
Chris: The power of faith might be strong enough to carry him to victory. I feel like that may be an unfair advantage.
George: I think calling your horse Jesus’ Team is kind of wack on principle; this horse needs help from the Messiah to compete in this race anyway. Pretty consistent frontline finisher, but I think there are better options here. Jesus didn’t die for this.
Niko: With the power of Jesus, anything is possible. Combined with that and a strong jockey, this horse has a chance to come out on top.
6- Kiss Today Goodbye
Kristina: Idk about this one. Why name a horse that?
Chris: I think this one just sounds like something I’d see hanging in a restaurant bathroom.
George: Don’t we all just want to Kiss Today Goodbye? I like this horse, paired with a familiar jockey unlike some other horses in this race. Don’t count him out.
Niko: Good for shorter distances, will certainly be a tough adjustment going up as he hasn’t performed very well at 1 ⅛ miles.
7- Tax
Kristina: No one likes taxes, maybe they’ll like just Tax. I’d bet on this one.
Chris: Everybody hates taxes. Not a great sign for Tax.
George: I’m all in on Tax here. First time I’ve ever said that I think. Love the trainer success ratio – Tax could run away with this one.
Niko: Most experienced at this distance but only has 2 wins to show for it, odds are too high for a horse that doesn’t come out on top very often
8- Harpers First Ride
Kristina: Harpers Ferry. These names aren’t as fun as last time. Is it Harpers First Ride or Harper’s First Ride? Is it supposed to be like the place? I am anti-Harpers First Ride. Hope he loses.
Chris: I hope Harper’s first ride isn’t the day of the race because I’m sure the other jockeys are much more experienced.
George: I’m a fan of Harpers First Ride. Numbers show a lot of potential here. Could be the second half of an exacta, but if I wanted a big payout I’d go all in. Possibilities are endless.
Niko: Two really great past races, a horse that loves to jump out to the lead, will simply be a matter of if they will get out faster than the competition.
9- Last Judgment
Kristina: Oooo. Another religious theme. I feel like God is speaking to me.
Chris: Very powerful. I’m just left wondering what the horse is going to judge. Is the horse being judged?
George: Last Judgement is a pretty interesting situation. Raced really well last time out, but just got a new trainer and I’m not sure he can handle the terrain. Could make for an exciting win though. Cool name.
Niko: A really strong distance horse but just does not have enough races that far. Statistically outperformed his other results this far.
10- Code of Honor
Kristina: Honor Code just wouldn’t have the same ring to it but I like it better. (Editor’s Note: Kristina was not interested in the fact that there has already been a talented horse name Honor Code.)
Chris: This must be some horse racing code Im not aware of. I appreciate a horse trying to uphold a moral code to preserve the integrity of the race.
George: Code of Honor is a no for me. Not just because I don’t have one, but also because it doesn’t seem like he can close out a race. Hard pass.
Niko: One of my favorite horses. Nothing bad to say about them besides that he hasn’t won in a while. Seems like someone is due…
11- Mr Freeze
Kristina: Honey, where is my supersuit?
Chris: Theres no way this horse isn’t fast. I’ve seen the guy at Braves games chase down enough fans in the outfield to know this horse is speedy.
George: Unfortunately, this Mr. Freeze is the Arnold Schwarzenegger from Batman and Robin of the Gulfstream Park Race. Not sure what he’s doing in this race – another bad finish is in the cards.
Niko: Chill horse. Those are my thoughts.
12- Math Wizard
Kristina: Doesn’t seem like the right name for athlete. You know that horse that could do math or whatever? That’s what I’m picturing.
Chris: This horse may be good at math but I’m not sure how that will apply to his racing skills.
George: This horse sounds like a nerd. Math sucks. But the numbers don’t lie – he can’t carry his momentum past the first half mile. Count me out.
Niko: This horse should practice racing instead of math. Might be quick but does not win besides once by a head with a different jockey.
Picks
Kristina’s Pick: 7- Mr Freeze and 5- Tax
Mr Freeze is quite the groovy name and it makes me think of that scene in The Incredibles. I was going to pick Tax but I changed my mind. I guess I’d say he seems like a solid pick. Short and sweet. The name I mean.
Chris’ Pick: 2- Coastal Defense
If he’s being trusted to defend something he must be a pretty reliable horse. That should absolutely translate well to the race.
George’s Pick: 4- Knicks Go
Knicks Go is my pick. He’s been on an unconscious run and I don’t see him selling it here. Also the actual Knicks are 8-8 – we back. My word is creed. McKnight out.
Niko’s Pick: 8- Harpers First Ride and 10- Code of Honor