Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Turf Sprint Analysis

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, as it is seen by handicappers and casual bettors alike, is about as easy as a Rubik’s Cube to figure out. Who better to solve the puzzle than some of the overthinking graduates of Regis High School?

Chris Murray, once known as a “Twice a Day” on Paddy’s Picks, knows absolutely nothing about horse racing. In fact, he holds a strong pet theory that horses aren’t real, though I won’t pretend to understand the intricate nuances of his argument. One might expect such inexperienced analysis to resemble the comments of a five-year-old, but Chris consistently shoots for the stars in everything he does. His stuff is suitable for second graders at the very least.

Hugh Esterson, or Hughie the Mush, returns to Paddy’s Picks with a chip on his shoulder and money to burn. Though his confidence when racing cars or tackling schoolwork at Duke University is sky high, when analyzing horses, Mr. Esterson employs the perfect blend of honest effort and a total lack of assuredness to properly exemplify the thoughts of any handicapper in a dartboard race.

Last but certainly not least, Paddy’s Picks is proud to welcome Derek Rosario in his debut appearance as guest analyst. At Regis, Derek gained a reputation as an unnaturally kind but scatterbrained individual saved by a brilliant mind. At Williams College, he has continued to take on more work than most could ever hope to accomplish while pursuing a degree in computer science. When asked to be a guest, he refused to accept his role as a name picker and insisted on learning the esoteric language of the Daily Racing Form. His thoughts below are an honest first attempt.

For the official Paddy’s Picks Analysis of this race, click here.

To return to the Breeders’ Cup Master List, click here.

Race 6

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2) for Two-Year-Olds, Five Furlongs on the Turf

1- Twilight Jet (Ire)

Chris: Don’t love it, but it’s a unique name. Going off first impressions, it seems like the type of horse they want you to pick. But it’s also the type of horse that lets me down. I’ve always been more of a dawn man than a twilight man.

Hugh: Twilight Jet is coming off of a win in the Cornwallis Stakes, another turf event back in early October, and there is some good familiarity with jockey Leigh Roche. But I’m not seeing anything special out of T.J. here that stands out. Although, if he flips off the beacon lights and loses his wings, Twilight Jet could become a dark horse.

Derek: He’s definitely one of my top picks. He has the most experience and has posted some large speed figures overseas. I have to assume he’s pretty versatile, though he seems familiar with longer distances.

2- Kaufymaker

Chris: There’s an aura of mystery surrounding Kaufymaker. Who is Kaufy, and what is he making? I like him though and think he’s got a good shot.

Hugh: Kaufymaker has never won on turf, and I don’t see that changing. Unlike Chris, though, I understand this name as a bad play on words on a household, morning-time appliance. It’s not that deep, man. A bright spot here is Jose Ortiz, who has two Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victories in the past.

Derek: He doesn’t look like he has much experience and his Timeform ratings aren’t great. Even if his jockey Jose Ortiz is experienced, he doesn’t seem great. And I love coffee, so you would think I would feel good about this one.

3- Go Bears Go (Ire)

Chris: I feel bad for Chicago.

Hugh: GBG’s last win came all the way back in June, but John Velazquez seems to be a master of the Breeders’ Cup with a whopping fifteen total victories. Not sure why, because I normally root for The Pack due to my mom’s Wisconsin upbringing, but GBG is standing out as a good underdog here at 15-1.

Derek: He’s well-raced, but is not great in terms of speed.

4- Vertiginous (Ire)

Chris: Is this a real word? Vertiginous? Sounds like a positive word, so I think she’s going to do well.

Hugh: Vertiginous, out of the fourth post, is the longshot of this sprint, along with Run Curtis Run. It doesn’t look like she’s faced any stiff competition, but again, familiar jockey Javier Castellano has perennially done well at the BC. I don’t see Vertiginous upsetting any of the odds here this weekend though.

Derek: This horse has good stats and will likely fill out my top three.

5- Hierarchy (Ire)

Chris: Don’t like hierarchies. This horse thinks it’s better than everyone else. 

Hugh: Hierarchy is coming off a strong run on the 18th of September, with Irishman Oisin Murphy aboard. A recent interview with Murphy in Sporting Life more than hinted at his confidence in this colt, noting that he’s “fared well with his starting position in stall five.” Murphy also, as a good Irishman, worked in a compliment to Twilight Jet’s trainer, Michael O’Callaghan, for no apparent reason. So this tells me he’s part of the Irish Mafia, and a force to be reckoned with. I like Hierarchy, and he’s primed to rest the hierarchy implied by these odds.

Derek: This horse is fodder.

6- Twilight Gleaming (Ire)

Chris: Oh, back to twilights. This horse doesn’t stand a chance.

Hugh: Despite the less cool name compared to Twilight Jet, the odds seem to put Twilight Gleaming as a second-tier favorite, along with One Timer. I would be more favorable to seeing her as a favorite in my own eyes if they had picked a better name. Twilight is fine, but I see it as a shame that they missed out on a reference to The Star-Spangled Banner. In other words, Twilight Glare would have been more worthwhile, patriotic, and confidence-inspiring. She’s run well in Europe, but the only reason I know she was in Europe is that she finished second at Ascot, an event made famous by Dave Portnoy.

Derek: This horse is fodder.

7- Armor (GB)

Chris: Armor needs to let its guard down. But what lies underneath his armor is a hard working horse committed to victory. 

Hugh: Armor hasn’t finished worse than fourth since mid-June and Ryan Moore has an impressive win percentage of 38% in 2021. Concisely, 6-1 odds here looks like a steal to me. I like this pick.

Derek: I see he has a comparable amount of experience and his ratings are pretty good. He seems good at shorter distances, and his jockey has a solid rate of success.

8- Averly Jane

Chris: This horse has me at a loss for words. If I’m being honest, this horse can do anything. First place, last place, anything in between.

Hugh: This horse doesn’t seem to lose. Four-for-four, with wins at Keeneland, Churchill, and Saratoga. This pick seems too easy and, for that reason, I’m out, as a self-goating investor on Shark Tank would say. I don’t like easy. Like my own rise to fandom, fame, and glory, we work for our profits in our picks, and this isn’t it.

Derek: I know I said I wouldn’t judge anything by name, but Tyler Gaffalione makes me guffaw.

9- One Timer

Chris: One Timer seems like the type of horse that’s always ready to strike. I think he’ll keep us on the edge of our seats, but ultimately, I can’t see him coming out on top. 

Hugh: One Timer is also a proven winner. However, I think it’s cruel to be a gelding, especially in 2021. I’m not gonna hold the trainer and owners responsible for that decision, and I hope they don’t earn any big winnings off of their inhumane or inequine decisions.

Derek: He sounds cool enough that he could put up a fight, but the stats aren’t there.

10- Time to Party

Chris: There is no logical reason in my head why he should not win this race.

Hugh: Sorry to say that I think this name is misapplied. It’s not going to be Time to Party’s time to party come the end of this race. He did finish runner-up to One Timer at the Speakeasy but the lackadaisical naming, along with a pink jersey, isn’t helping his chances. This is not a party you want to be at.

Derek: This horse is fodder.

11- Derrynane

Chris: I feel compelled to support this horse because there seems to be some underlying connection to my Irish heritage. That being said, there’s something about him that leads me to believe he will fall short.

Hugh: Derrynane has looked strong of late, with two wins in threet recent starts. Crucially, this horse in known to be a strong passer, which she’ll need to make use of, especially starting in the eleventh stall. Whether she can make it up to the front, though, is a different question. Look for this horse to come storming through the field in a bid for glory.

Derek: This horse is fodder.

12- Run Curtis Run

Chris: Oh baby. Oh baby. Curtis is gonna run, and he’s gonna run his way right up to the top of that podium. I love Run Curtis Run.

Hugh: Forrest is a cooler name than Curtis, and you shouldn’t have to coerce a horse to run. That’s their job if they’re a true winning racer. 20-1 sounds about right, there’s not much hope here. 

Derek: His jockey has my last name!

Also-Eligibles (Alternates)

13- Thunder Love (GB)

Hugh: This horse looks like an alternate for a reason with a 12th and two fifth-place finishes in the last two and a half months. Cool name, but it won’t be enough to sway someone who actually places some effort behind his picks.

14- Sumter

Hugh: Does anyone say “remember Fort Sumter” as a rallying cry? No, they say remember the Alamo. He looks like a better alternative than Thunder Love, but still won’t make a mark come this weekend. 

 

Chris’ Pick: 12- Run Curtis Run

Run Curtis Run has a different energy. He’s coming to the track and you just know that he’s going to be ready to play. I don’t see how any of the other horses are going to keep up with him.

Hugh’s Pick: 5- Hierarchy

Explanation: I value a jockey’s confidence and I don’t want to be on the bad side of the Irish. But, for real, Hierarchy seems to toe the line between wild underdog and too easy of a pick, and that’s my sweet spot. Hierarchy is the way to go. If not him, though, I’m looking to Armor and then Go Bears Go, in that order.

Derek’s Pick: 1- Twilight Jet (Ire)

I like Twilight Jet because he has the most experience and his ratings have definitely improved over time. He definitely seems like he can go longer, but he’s performed well at five furlongs. Armor is also an interesting option with plenty of experience, and Vertiginous rounds out my top three.