This past weekend, in a world desperately wandering from distraction to distraction in a particularly dark time, Belmont Park provided, as it always does for those in need. However, as the day came to a close, only two horses remained on the minds of many as they begrudgingly flipped the channel back to the news.
Before the tenth race, all six NYRA handicappers selected three-year-old colt Tiz the Law to win the Belmont Stakes. At 4-5, he entered as one of the heaviest Belmont favorites of the decade, tied with California Chrome and Justify while only entering the gate five cents behind American Pharoah. All three of them were contending for the Triple Crown, while he was merely entering the first leg. There was a world of expectations for him, but he lived up to the hype.
As I mentioned in my trip notes, jockey Manny Franco’s only job was to keep his horse out of trouble. He parked his mount four wide all the way around the track, and it didn’t seem to matter. Tiz the Law made a bold move on the turn and galloped home to win by 3 ¾ lengths, earning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) and becoming the first horse bred in New York to win the Belmont Stakes since 1887.
He was perfect. He’s headed to the Kentucky Derby as the best three-year-old colt in the country. He ran the best race he could have possibly run, and all the cameras were on him. Yet, on the track, he was still emphatically overshadowed that day.
An hour and a half earlier, runners were entering the gate for the G1 Acorn Stakes, a race for three-year-old fillies. Whichever horse won this race was nearly guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Oaks, the fillies’ version of the Kentucky Derby, and several talented three-year-olds showed up for a chance.
Perfect Alibi had previously finished fourth in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, while Lucrezia had recently finished second in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. Steven Asmussen was bringing a newcomer, Casual, to challenge for the first time in stakes competition. It would’ve been an evenly matched, wide open field. Then Bob Baffert, the legendary west coast trainer, shipped one lone horse across the country to run on Belmont Stakes Day.
With Gamine in the race, there was suddenly no competition. After a while, there weren’t even other horses.
The filly exploded out of the gate and instantly established a clear lead over the rest of the field. The race was over then and there. Entering the stretch, she was already nearly 10 lengths in front. By the time she reached the wire, the margin was 18 ¾ lengths. The previous stakes record for the one-mile Acorn was 1:33.58. Gamine’s time was 1:32.55.
By the time Tiz the Law entered the gate for his own incredible performance, determining the top three-year-old in the country required an explanation longer than three words. His 100 BSF, while very impressive in its own right, did little to settle the debate, as Gamine had just earned a 110.
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If Gamine was a three-year-old colt that had run a 110 BSF, she would be well on her to the Kentucky Derby. Baffert’s original plan, however, was to run her in the Kentucky Oaks, the female counterpart that should be as important as the Derby but is invariably relegated to a status as another race on the card. He seems to intend on sticking to that plan, despite Gamine’s apparent ability to contend with the boys. History shows that he can afford to be more bold, as he now has another horse that belongs in a Triple Crown race.
The history of fillies running in the Kentucky Derby is scant but successful. Out of thousands of runners since 1875, only 40 of them were fillies. However, three of them won the event, with Regret, Genuine Risk and Winning Colors winning in 1915, 1980 and 1988 respectively. To enter Gamine in the Run for the Roses would be very bold, but not unprecedented.
The problem, however, with running this filly in the Derby is that Baffert has not been preparing her for it. Instead, he’s been preparing her for the Kentucky Oaks, which is an eighth of a mile shorter and requires different prep races. To change her schedule now would be asking a lot of her, and it would be better to have her on the track than to ask too much of her and risk injury or regression. Therefore, should everything go well at Churchill, the Preakness has to be the spot where Gamine shows the extent of her ability in the Triple Crown.
If not for a historic 2009 Preakness, history would be against Gamine’s run at Pimlico. Up until that year, a filly hadn’t won the Preakness since 1924, but that wasn’t a concern for Rachel Alexandra. The stunning, era-defining filly took the lead from the very beginning and held off Mine That Bird’s challenge in the stretch, ending the Kentucky Derby winner’s Triple Crown bid early.
Gamine can take the same path, albeit later in the year, as Rachel Alexandra did a decade ago. In 2009, her last race before taking the Preakness was a dominant 20-length win in the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel’s BSF in that race was 108.
If the Triple Crown field this year was deeper, then perhaps it would make sense for Baffert to continue entering her in races against fillies. However, in the past month, three top colts have been pulled off the trail, two of which trained in Baffert’s barn. The withdrawal of Nadal, Charlatan and Maxfield due to injuries left Tiz the Law unchallenged in the Belmont, and their absence could present an opportunity for Gamine as well.
Beyond ability, opportunity and history though, horse racing is most compelling when the best horses are running against one another. Right now, Gamine and Tiz the Law are the two best three-year-olds in the country, and they should race against one another, at least once, to finally settle the debate. That very straightforward concept is the life-blood of the sport.
In order to feasibly qualify for the Preakness, a lot still needs to happen for Gamine. Her prep race and the Oaks itself have to be successful efforts, nearly as successful as her win in the Acorn. She has to avoid injury, a fate that’s already befallen many three-year-olds this year. Should Charlatan, an immensely talented Baffert colt, recover from his injury in time, then she likely won’t be entered in any case. Baffert wouldn’t want to run himself out of one race when he could win two instead.
However, with this win in the Acorn, there’s now at least a clear path for Gamine to participate in the Triple Crown, and it’s one that should be pursued for the sake of horse racing. There is no better reason.
If that’s still not enough though, then perhaps the Lexico Oxford dictionary should have the final word on this talented filly’s destiny:
Gamine (noun): A girl with a mischievous, boyish charm
She was certainly charming Saturday.