This race is absurdly wide open, to the point that dart throwing might be as effective as handicapping. Potentials profits abound.
Race 5
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Turf
1- Big Runnuer
Lucas: bit slow, but a good J/T combo (success with early speed)
This is one of those horses that I dismiss out of hand for weak speed figures and an early running style, and then they somehow wire the field. He’s been running really well in several wiring efforts recently out west, but his figures have been consistently light in comparison to others in this field. I believe he loses a duel as well as a stretch drive to superior opponents here.
2- Just Might
Lucas: Meh
Meh.
3- Imprimis
Lucas: very strong horse, can come from behind, good jockey, s***** trainer
I’ll refrain from using such language to describe Joseph Orseno because the trainer matters less for a horse of this caliber. This mainstay of the turf has been excellent in two starts this year, and took the G3 Turf Sprint in a blanket finish last time out over fellow runners Front Run The Fed and Bombard. He can come from off the pace, which is a valuable skill in races with a lot of pace up front. However, he’s prone to a poor trip, or more likely, losing to a better trip from another closer. It’s more of a random chance than anything else in racing.
4- Front Run The Fed
Lucas: lacks explosiveness for distance
First of all, it’s ridiculous that Javier Castellano and Chad Brown have won 12 races at Keeneland in 24 starts. Anyway, I think Lucas hit this right on the head. This runner likes to come from off the pace, a very suitable running style that could serve him well. However, this is a very short sprint distance that he’s unaccustomed to, which makes it extremely likely that he’ll be a little late to get up in the stretch. I like to find horses in this race that have proven they can handle short sprints like this, and this one hasn’t shown that yet.
5- Wet Your Whistle
Lucas: interesting long shot
I’m not really sure what to make of his last start, an upset wire-to-wire victory in the G1 Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational. It was the first time he’d tried to wire a field since 2018, and I’m not sure it’s something he’ll attempt again. If he did, I think he would lose badly in a race with more pace in it. I’m clearly uncertain here.
6- Glass Slippers (GB)
Lucas: don’t know what to do with English
Me neither, but I’ll try my best. It appears that the European contingent is a little weak this year for this division, but this runner has been performing at a very high level at similar distances overseas. Figuring out how she sizes up to her American, mostly male competitors is a bit of a crap shoot, but she seems to love this going and could easily have a say in herstateside debut.
7- Leinster
Lucas: great horse
He’s been running very well this year, and in his first race off a layoff, he held well in the stretch to defeat fellow runners Extravagant Kind and Just Might in the G2 Woodford. He could easily improve in his second start off the layoff, but something’s giving me pause. He took advantage of a track that was favoring his running style near the front, which also buoyed Just Might’s performance on the front end. He’s nearly guaranteed a decent trip, which is a major advantage, but he strikes me as a little vulnerable.
8- Oleksandra (Aus)
Lucas: really good odds, wonder why
To answer Lucas’ question, I’m going to have to blame a long layoff. This very talented mare just defeated the boys with a 101 BSF in the G1 Jaipur back in June. She hasn’t raced since then, which makes for a tall task in this spot. However, she’s been as good as any other runner in this race this year, and if she can return to form immediately for this start, she’ll pay off at ridiculous odds for a horse of her caliber.
9- Into Mystic
Lucas: optimal distance
I hate when horses do well after I’ve picked them. I’d like to brag and say that I saw promise for this horse when he was 32-1 back in May, but it’s not very profitable to bet on fourth-place finishers. He’s obviously rounded into form since, and he very nearly knocked off Got Stormy in their last encounter together. He’s peaking at the right time, and his running style will nearly guarantee a clean trip. He’s vaguely interesting here.
10- Bombard
Lucas: Toss
He nearly pulled off the upset last time out in the G3 Turf Sprint, and I think that performance deserves commendation. However, he’s simply too unpredictable to take with any confidence in this shorter race on firm turf against superior competition.
11- Wildman Jack
Lucas: Toss
He’ll have to get back to his performance in the G3 Daytona to have any chance here.
12- Got Stormy
Lucas: clear favorite, coming from behind
I don’t know how she’s back, but she’s back. After a very pedestrian start to the year, last year’s runner-up in the BC Mile has undergone a career renaissance as a turf sprinter. She’s been phenomenal in her last two starts going shorter, particularly in her last start when she came flying from the back to defeat fellow runner Into Mystic on his best day. Her reputation precedes her, and even with the tough post, she has to be included on all tickets.
13- Texas Wedge
Lucas: Toss
He seems to be trending in the wrong direction, and while improvement isn’t out of the question, it will have to come dramatically. The post also hurts.
14- Extravagant Kid
Lucas: Toss
Now hold on a minute. His last race was better than it appears, and while it looks exactly the same as every other race he’s ever been in, it may be superior. He was the only horse effectively closing in a race that favored early speed, and while he missed and had to settle for second, he was coming quickly. The post is terrible and will likely eliminate him from contention anyway, but I think he may have a race left in him.
Lucas’ Pick: 8- Oleksandra (Aus), the best value play given her talent
Pat’s Order: 9 12 7 6
In a race this wide open, it’s time to take a shot. Into Mystic is peaking at the right time and has a start over this Keeneland turf, one in which he nearly beat Got Stormy. She’s a superstar and I expect her to do very well, but the difference between her and her competition is negligible. The long shot bet is worth it here. Leinster, however, is another very live horse. He’s especially good on the Keeneland turf, and a clean trip is incredibly likely. Glass Slippers is a European wild card that I kept coming back to for whatever reason, so she sneaks into my top four.