Race 11
Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Turf
1- Arklow
After failing to secure a victory for over a year, the old Arklow seemed to come back last time out in the G3 Kentucky Turf Cup. He didn’t beat much that day, but it was a much improved performance over what he had been doing previously. There are some powerful Europeans in this race that he’s struggled against in the past, but his return to form can’t hurt his chances.
2- Magical (Ire)
I’ve been waiting two years to see this mare race again. Back in 2018, she and fellow superfilly Enable put on the American contingent to shame in one of the most exciting Breeders’ Cup races in recent memory. It doesn’t seem like she’s lost a step since I’ve last seen her, as she’s recently taken on some of the best turf horses in the world and won more often than not. She’s brilliant, and I look forward to watching her again.
3- Tarnawa (Ire)
As a four-year-old, this filly has taken a massive step forward, winning three straight races in highly impressive fashion. She’s clearly in peak condition, and should make a very competitive case in this race.
4- Mehdaayih (GB)
She hasn’t won a race since 2019, and she’s lost convincingly to fellow runners Lord North and Magical in the past. I don’t see this one.
5- Donjah (Ger)
It appears as though this runner has been competing at lower levels of European racing, and she hasn’t been stellar at that level. To face Magical now seems to be a daunting task.
6- Lord North (Ire)
Before his last race, this gelding seemed poised to compete with the likes of Magical and Tarnawa here. However, his most recent performance was a very poor one far behind fellow runner Magical, who finished third herself. He’s also unfamiliar with the distance, which would have been an issue in any case. He certainly offers value in exchange for unanswerable questions.
7- United
When he manages to get near the lead, he fares much better, as he has in several of his recent starts. In the G2 John Henry, he had the lead uncontested and took full advantage, cruising home to an easy victory with a big speed figure. In this contest, however, I don’t believe he’ll manage the same luck.
8- Red King
He’s won three straight at a lower level, but he’ll really have to improve to have any chance here.
9- Channel Maker
The six-year-old has a little life left in him. In fact, it turns out that he has a ton left. His last two performances have been unbelievably good, as he’s won two very competitive graded stakes in New York with matching 108 speed figures. He did so both times by establishing clear, easy leads, which is a new running style for him that he’s clearly embraced. If any American can compete with the Europeans, it’s likely to be this one.
10- Mogul (GB)
He picked an excellent time to turn in a career-best performance, as his last race puts him in contention with some of the best turf horses in the world. A lot of those runners are in this race, and have been excellent for years. He only has the one race, but for a three-year-old, it’s far from impossible for him to make some noise from the outside.