Breeders’ Cup Analysis: Sprint

Race 8

Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

1- Echo Town

Lucas: Toss

He’s talented as the typical three-year-old goes, but he’ll have to improve in this spot.

2- C Z Rocket

Lucas: very strong, mostly early speed

He’s won five straight now, and seems to improve with each start. He hasn’t yet competed in G1 competition, but his speed figures put him in very reasonable contention here. A stalking trip is likely, which makes the inside post a little tricky, but also not anything worth stressing over too much while handicapping. He’s a very reasonable, if untested, competitor here.

3- Collusion Illusion

Lucas: Toss

He loves to win, but he was beaten convincingly by fellow runner C Z Rocket last time out in the G2 Sprint Championship. He’ll have to improve significantly.

4- Bon Raison

Lucas: weak J/T, but great long shot, come from behind

I’ve been messing around with this horse in New York for a long time, but I never thought I’d see him here. He’s been doing well recently, but it’s always hard to tell when he’s rounding into form and when he’s firing off a big race. He’s just as likely to finish in the money as he is to finish up the track, which does admittedly make him a fun long shot.

5- Manny Wah

Lucas: another good long shot, finished 2nd behind Bon Raison in last start

He lost to fellow runner Bon Raison in a photo last time out, but if anything, that just demonstrates how far Bon Raison has come. This horse has always been the ungraded stakes type, and I don’t see much room for him to improve.

6- Frank’s Rockette

Lucas: early speed

If a three-year-old filly’s going to take on the boys, she better want to win. Fortunately, this one does, as she’s never finished outside of the top two in her career. On the other hand, she’s only ever faced females, and her only race against older fillies and mares was in the G2 Gallant Bloom featuring a five-horse field in which she was heavily favored. It’s worth remembering that only one three-year-old filly since 1900 has ever won a G1 Stakes against older male horses, when Rachel Alexandra won the Woodward in 2009.

7- Whitmore

Lucas: highest peak but has fallen off

Lucas makes a good point, but I’ll be careful to never count him out completely. He’s been around since my early days of high school, and he always seems to have a good run in him somewhere. His fourth place finish behind three horses in this race last time out is concerning, but the 100 BSF he earned in the G1 Vanderbilt isn’t too far away either.

8- Firenze Fire

Lucas: great horse

He’s been very inconsistent as of late, but the G2 Vosburgh represented some class relief that he capitalized on, winning by nearly three lengths against a weak field. His best days are likely still in whatever Jason Servís was giving him, but he’s shown some ability this year and can mix it up with these on the right day.

9- Empire of Gold

Lucas: Toss

Despite an impressive runner-up finish in the G2 Phoenix last time out, this runner seems a little out of place here.

10- Yaupon

Lucas: best horse

He looks dangerous. Four straight victories to start his career have come on the front end, which he controls with a lethal dose of early speed. His speed figures are absurd in comparison to other three-year-olds and very reasonable among the rest of the field. He seems tough to beat.

11- Diamond Oops

Lucas: very good

He’s been competing at the level for a very long time now, but he hasn’t quite managed to break through just yet. He notched another graded stakes victory in the G2 Phoenix against several fellow runners in this race, but it’s unclear if he can make it two in a row here.

12- Hog Creek Hustle

Lucas: too short

If he struggled to win in allowance competition in two straight starts, then I struggle to see him overtaking Yaupon.

13- Jasper Prince

Lucas: Toss

Japanese horses are weird. I’m not going to pretend I know what I’m talking about, but keep an eye out for him.

14- Vekoma

Lucas: really good going longer, early speed

I’m kind of glad this horse drew the far outside post, because I’m personally not a fan. He’s a very frustrating horse to handicap because it doesn’t really make sense for him to be as good as he is. He’s had some excellent races this year, particularly in the G1 Carter, but he also seems to like going a little longer than six furlongs.

Pat’s Order: 10 2 8 4
Lucas’ Pick: 8- Firenze Fire