Race 9
Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Turf
1- Circus Maximus (Ire)
When he finished fourth in this race last year, he was entering off his best performance ever. He was in peak condition and couldn’t seal the deal, and now he’s entering this year off a poor finish in a top-tier turf race at Ascot. Let’s try to find another European this year.
2- Kameko
Well that didn’t take long. The Breeders’ Cup, particularly with Europeans, really comes down to who’s entering in peak condition. This colt is coming off the best race of his life and has steadily been improving all year. He’s one to consider seriously.
3- Lope Y Fernandez (Ire)
He lost to fellow runner One Master convincingly last time out, and hasn’t won a race since August 2019. His name would look pretty funny in the archives though. Imagine it, a Fernandez from Dublin.
4- Siskin
He was lights out in four straight starts to begin his career, and followed up those wins with a solid third place finish against older horses. His last race seems uncharacteristic, as he seemed to have trouble throughout the event. He seems to be undervalued as a result of his last start, when he seems to fit very well here. I wouldn’t sleep on him.
5- Digital Age (Ire)
He’s really turned up the dial in his last two starts and defeated fellow runner Factor This in the G1 Turf Classic. That runner went on to dominate his next start, indicating that the 105 BSF was deserved. It’s unclear how he sizes up to the Europeans here, but he’s one of the strongest Americans out there.
6- Safe Voyage (Ire)
Apparently all the Europeans are in this race. This one has raced at an extremely high level all year, trading wins with fellow runner One Master while collecting big purses all along the way. He’s obviously in good condition and could very well make some noise here.
7- Casa Creed
I would’ve loved to see this one get a big victory stateside before he tried to take on a field as insanely deep as this one.
8- March to the Arch
He seems to be competitive in the lower stakes in the U.S., but against the likes of Factor This and Raging Bull, he’s less effective. Still, he appears to be in very good condition and should be flying from the back given the right trip.
9- One Master (GB)
It seems like he prefers a slightly shorter distance, but he’s yet another European entering the race after competing very well overseas. I would give the edge to his foe Safe Voyage, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this one found his way into some purse money here.
10- Halladay
This horse is a different animal altogether when he gets the lead to himself. His performance in the G1 Fourstardave reflects that, when he wired a very good field of horses up at Saratoga, despite never really finding much success outside Florida previously. He has a chance to get the lead here, but Factor This to his outside may be a serious issue. He can duel and stalk, while Halladay seems far more one-dimensional.
11- Ivar (Brz)
Here’s another runner trending in the right direction. After a third place finish in a very competitive ungraded stakes, he took the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile in a 14-1 upset victory. He’s shown versatility in his running style, and he’s running faster as he’s developing.
12- Uni (GB)
The old mare isn’t quite as good as she was last season, but did manage to take G1 First Lady in her last start. There’s every possibility she returns to defend her championship, but she’ll have to improve at a short price in order to do so.
13- Factor This
He’ll be flying to the lead from so far outside, and everything from there is very uncertain. He’s been stellar as of late, though it remains unclear how he sizes up to the Europeans, and his early speed is often an asset in these slow turf races. I only wonder if a mile is a little too short for him.
14- Raging Bull (Fr)
While Factor This guns to the lead inside of him, it’s very likely this one will angle in and settle near the rear. This gives him a tough assignment closing from the back of the pack, something he’s struggled with several times this year. Despite improving all the time and consistent competing, he hasn’t won a race since May.
Order: 2 13 6 11
This race is absurdly wide open. It’s honestly not worth betting with the expectation of figuring it out. It’s a slot machine, and I wish all of the gamblers out there the best of luck.