The feature race of Breeders’ Cup Day seems to be a race between Jackie’s Warrior and the rest, but there are plenty of competitive challengers for him to defeat.
My guest for this race is Tyler Zorn, a Regis High School graduate who’s quickly putting the pieces together when it comes to handicapping. He has some excellent observations in here, surprising the writer that originally put him on as a change of pace.
Race 10
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
1- Camp Hope
Tyler: “He looks somewhat promising, but in this race, he’s definitely outmatched. He won his last race but doesn’t have much experience other than that and is riding with a different jockey, Robbie Albarado (who hasn’t been very successful this year). Real low Beyer in his first start as well.
His first start was a promising one, as he easily pulled away from a maiden field at Churchill Downs to win by four lengths. That being said, I think this is asking a bit too much here. The 69 Beyer was uninspiring, and the post hurts too for a colt that probably won’t go to the lead naturally. It’s also notable that Ken McPeek has Brian Hernandez on his other horse in the race.
2- King Fury
Tyler: “He’s been doing pretty well but finished 8th when facing tougher competition, he was gassed quickly. However, it’s interesting to see Brian Hernandez teaming up with this Ken McPeek horse over Camp Hope. He’s definitely the stronger of the two, but he’s still outmatched here.”
I can’t possibly improve on Tyler’s observation here. This colt will have to improve.
3- Reinvestment Risk
Tyler: “He’s got the second highest Beyer, strong trainer and jockey and he’s been performing well recently too. Jackie’s Warrior, the favorite, has beaten him in his past two races by a widening margin.”
He’s been well-beaten by Jackie’s Warrior on two separate occasions, but that doesn’t eliminate him from contention. In fact, the… fact that he could keep up with Jackie’s Warrior is a testament to his ability as a two-year-old. He’ll have to improve or capitalize on his foe’s sudden regression to win here, but his form as an individual is stellar and should warrant a place here.
4- Likeable
Tyler: “Likeable isn’t so likeable on paper.”
I wasn’t as opposed to him as Tyler was, because I’m a sucker for a blowout win. That being said, his maiden score at Belmont did come with an uncontested early lead under soft fractions, which means that the 81 BSF he earned that day is likely inflated. He’s very quick, but so are several others in here, and dueling is something that he hasn’t had to do yet.
5- Essential Quality
Tyler: “His familiarity with Keeneland may give him an edge against Jackie’s Warrior and Reinvestment Risk.”
Remember when Maxfield won the Breeders’ Futurity last year? That was an excellent performance, but Essential Quality wasn’t too shabby in this year’s rendition either. He was well clear of the field for most of the stretch run and geared down at the wire. The 88 BSF he earned that day is nearly enough to qualify him here, and the win over the Keeneland track is very useful. For those seeking a spoiler candidate, this is probably the best option.
6- Keepmeinmind
Tyler: Tyler had nothing to say about this colt. This happens again with the long shots in the outside posts, so I’ll write “Toss” going forward when it does.
Did he have some bad racing luck in his runner-up finish in the G3 Breeders’ Futurity behind fellow runner Essential Quality? Yes he did, and it probably cost him a length. That being said, I don’t think he was ever going to catch Essential Quality, who was objectively the more impressive runner that day. Many may take a flier on this horse because he was making up ground at the end of that race, but unless he improves, I don’t think he’ll be able to turn the tables on E.Q., let alone Jackie’s Warrior.
7- Jackie’s Warrior
Tyler: “Clearly the best in the field. He’s a real stud, and it’ll be tough to bet against him. He’s beaten the second fastest horse in the race on two straight occasions.”
There’s not much to talk about here. 100 Beyers are incredibly rare for two-year-olds, but it’s just a cherry on top for this colt. He’s never been challenged in any meaningful sense, and his biggest competition on paper in this race is Reinvestment Risk, a colt he’s already beaten twice. He’s going to be very tough to bet against.
8- Classier
Tyler: “Worth a second look”
Bob Baffert certainly knows how to prepare his runners, but he’ll have to push his schedule along to get this one ready. He only has one start under his belt, and while it was a convincing maiden win, it was also done with a clear easy lead sprinting. He’ll stretch out, he’ll like have to duel and he has far less experience than his counterparts. He’s interesting at a price, but I’d give him time.
9- Sittin On Go
Tyler: “Maybe worth minor consideration”
I would’ve bet against him when he won the G3 Iroquois, but his victory that day was a lesson in the potential pratfalls of betting on speed figures in these juvenile races. He improved massively with added distance, coming from well off the pace and closing well to win going away. This race has a lot of early pace, which could set up well for him again. He’s a live option if he can take another step forward.
10- Dreamer’s Disease
Tyler: Toss
His only stakes race was in the turf, and it was a disaster. A win in an allowance race on dirt isn’t enough to qualify him here.
11- Next
Tyler: Toss
An allowance victory at Keeneland in an event rained off the turf is not enough to qualify him as a contender here.
12- Hot Rod Charlie
Tyler: Toss
A maiden victory after four tries does not qualify him as a contender here.
13- Rombauer
Tyler: Toss
I think Tyler tossed this runner prematurely, because his performance in the G1 American Pharoah was very impressive. In his first dirt start, he closed very well to finish second with an 82 BSF. However, he probably benefited from the pace setup that day, and much needed improvement is less likely as a result. In addition, this post could harm a closer like him. He’s an outsider at a price.
14- Calibrate
Tyler: Toss
He had a very rough outing in the Breeders’ Futurity despite taking a lot of money. It’s unclear if this is a result of the added distance or some other variable, but in any case, the post will hurt him anyway.