On this momentous race weekend, the Breeders’ Cup will commence with a characteristically difficult juvenile turf race. 14 of the best juveniles from around the country will be competing for turf supremacy, and they’ll be moving through lightning quick fractions to do it. It’s an exciting and potentially profitable race.
My guests for this race are Grace Getman and Esmé Bleecker-Adams, both of which will be returning after providing guest analysis for Travers Day. Since then, Grace has become a force of nature as the Social Media Editor for The Fordham Observer, while Esmé has continued in her Observer role of “doing everything at all times.” Neither had the fortune to win on Travers Day, but neither are at all deterred by that unfortunate loss.
Race 6
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2) for Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Turf
1- Mighty Gurkha (Ire)
Grace: “Sounds like something I would do after a long night of well, ‘studying.’”
Esmé: “Ooh it has a nice ring to it, maybe the matching syllables.”
I’m struggling to figure out what this colt is doing here. After finishing tenth in his last race, his fourth straight defeat on the turf, trainer Archie Watson decided to make the trip across the world for a chance in the Breeders’ Cup in the middle of a pandemic. The colt’s only two victories have come on artificial tracks, and while his most recent win was impressive and game on the front end, he’ll probably have more trouble establishing a clear lead here. I’m looking elsewhere.
2- Windy City Red
Grace: “Thank God that wasn’t Illinois on Tuesday.”
Esmé: “For some reason, all I can think is Windy City=Chicago, and Chicago is the White Sox and probably Democrat as cities tend to be, so the red feels out of place, but probably just election week talking.”
I’d like to take this opportunity to point out that Paddy’s Picks is an apolitical website dedicated to the study, appreciation and discussion of horse racing. While we take care to never inhibit our contributors, their political opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the publication or its creator.
In his first turf attempt (and only his second race), this colt nearly pulled off the 16-1 upset in the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita. He possessed significant closing speed in the stretch that day, which could be an asset in this pace-heavy race. However, it should be noted that he wasn’t the only one closing that day, and he was outkicked by the runner-up finisher. If he couldn’t catch race winner and fellow runner Amanzi Yimpilo that day, then I struggle to see why he would do so here, barring some unforeseen improvement.
3- Lipizzaner
Grace: “Sounds like a knock off 70s English rock band.”
Esmé: “This is mean, but it sounds like a medication you would see an ad for on TV with a million weird side effects that are worse than the thing it cures.”
Esmé’s “mean” comment pales in comparison to what her counterpart has in store in this article. After a rough summer that included a convincing defeat to fellow runner Golden Pal, this colt returned in autumn as a much improved runner. He’s improved his Timeform rating in each of his four performances since, and is entering this race off a victory as the 2-5 favorite in the Doncaster Stakes. However, that race and many of his other performances have come against much weaker competition. His one G1 start this fall came in the Middle Park Stakes, when he finished sixth in a field of eight. He’s certainly headed in the right direction, and may be worth a look at a price for Aiden O’Brien, but I’m concerned he’s not quite ready to take on the big boys yet.
4- County Final
Grace: “What hopefully one of these battleground states will say today”
Esmé: “This one also has election associations, but apart from that it’s kind of a mixed bag because of the word Final. If you make it to the Finals that’s a good thing, but in a race you wouldn’t want to be in the Final position, you would want to be first.”
I’d like to take this opportunity to point out that Paddy’s Picks is an apolitical website dedicated to the study, appreciation and discussion of horse racing. While we take care to never inhibit our contributors, their political opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the publication or its creator.
In five starts across several different surfaces, he hasn’t really had a poor start yet. That being said, he faded to finish fourth behind Fauci and fellow runner Cowan two starts back. To compare him to his competition, Golden Pal defeated Fauci with condescending ease last time out. In County Final’s last start, he finished fourth again behind fellow runners Second of July, After Five and Momos. He didn’t appear to have much of an excuse to finish so poorly either, considering that he received a much more favorable trip than Second of July but was badly outkicked down the center of the track anyway. He may be sitting on a big race for Steve Asmussen, but it’s concerning to see Jose Ortiz leave to ride for Wesley Ward and After Five.
5- Cowan
Grace: “A nice young chap you’d take to meet your parents (before he dies of tuberculosis)”
Esmé: “I cheated and looked it up and it said ‘one who is not a freemason’ so I’m not really sure what to think but it’s short and sweet which is good for being memorable.”
Despite demonstrating the ability to duel in his first two starts on dirt, he’s actually become more of a closer in his two most recent starts on turf. In his last outing, the Indian Summer at Keeneland, he closed very fast but couldn’t catch fellow runner Bodenheimer alone on the lead. I would make the case that he’s actually a far more capable runner than Bodenheimer, but in a small field chasing lone speed, he had little chance to find a trip. This field is massive and contains far more early speed, which should set up conveniently for him. He’s accustomed to the track and Ricardo Santana isn’t leaving Steve Asmussen’s side. I’d keep an eye on this guy in the late stages.
6- Ubettabelieveit (Ire)
Grace: “The fact that horses are really named as silly as this”
Esmé: “Cheesy but I have to say I like it, it’s cute.”
One has to be extremely careful tossing underdogs that like to win. For this type of runner, speed figures can be deceiving because the horse will do whatever he needs to do to cross the line first. After winning two of his first three starts, this colt had a rough outing against tougher G2 competition and finished ninth by nearly 30 lengths. In his next race, another G2 stakes, he went off at 40-1 odds but rallied late to win by a nose. That victory nearly qualifies him for this race, and his running style and a slightly wet turf surface should give him something to work with in his American debut. That being said, for a long shot to win a race like that, it usually requires a peak performance. After that and a trip overseas, I wonder if he’ll be able to deliver again at an even higher level.
7- Momos
Grace: “Sounds just like a monkey who can run fast – they’re getting desperate in horse racing, huh”
Esmé: “Sounds like they belong to someone named Momo, I like to think it’s the owner’s kid’s nickname or something.”
Despite some obvious reservations, I really appreciate this runner’s last performance in the G3 Futurity. Yes, he could have been challenged more, and nothing at Belmont will ever really prepare him for a speed duel with a California shipper. However, he was very game in the stretch that day, demonstrating resilience in a race that was obviously kinder to closers. The downside is that he’ll be facing a lot more heat up front here, which will likely compromise him in the later stages.
8- Amanzi Yimpilo (Ire)
Grace: “Sounds like he makes candles for a hobby and thinks he’s the only person to know that Reddit exists”
Esmé: “I have no idea what to make of this one to be honest…”
In her last race, this filly managed to take down the boys in a wire-to-wire performance in the Speakeasy. She defeated fellow runner Windy City Red that day, but the field wasn’t all that impressive. In addition, the trip she got that day is unlikely to be replicable in this spot. I don’t think that this American prep race was quote as valuable as the Indian Summer or Futurity, which leads me to believe that she’ll struggle a little.
9- After Five
Grace: “What I hope it to be everyday”
Esmé: “Ooh I like this one, it’s like after work is over at 5:00, the party comes out.”
In two straight starts, he’s closed fast but came up just short, finishing second in his maiden race and then again in the G3 Futurity behind fellow runner Second of July. The pace setup in this race should aid his running style more than ever before, but it hasn’t been a pace setup that’s hurt him in the past. He’s simply been outkicked by horses that proved themselves to be a little faster, and Irad Ortiz seems to realize this and has jumped on to fellow runner Golden Pal here. That being said, I get the impression that he may be sitting on a big race.
10- Bodenheimer
Grace: “Head of Board of Trustees at a private school, doesn’t like those ‘meddling kids’”
Esmé: “It sounds vaguely German, with big strong clydesdale vibes (even though clydesdales don’t race).”
Lone speed in small fields is quite possibly the most dangerous thing in horse racing, and Bodenheimer took full advantage of such a situation when he defeated fellow runner Cowan in the Indian Summer. Of the early speed types in this race, this one is by far the least proven, and I don’t believe he’s better than the horse he’s already beaten. I’m looking elsewhere.
11- Into the Sunrise
Grace: “When the NV and AZ results will be called”
Esmé: “Interesting, usually you hear the phrase “ride off into the sunset” so this is kinda *edgy* but cute.”
I’d like to take this opportunity to point out that Paddy’s Picks is an apolitical website dedicated to the study, appreciation and discussion of horse racing. While we take care to never inhibit our contributors, their political opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the publication or its creator.
I think Wesley Ward is making an excellent decision moving this colt back to a sprint distance. He didn’t run poorly in the G2 Bourbon at a route distance, but he was definitely more impressive in the Soar Free behind Gretzky the Great, another Breeders’ Cup runner. However, I really don’t like the fact that he’s never been tested on the lead, and yet has also never won a big race. His assets are limited against this field.
12- Dirty Dangle
Grace: “How about we not get into this one?”
Esmé: “All I can think of is the ‘no I’m Dirty Dan’ scene from spongebob, except Dangle instead of Dan, it’s kinda cowboy-ish which works.”
Another filly facing the boys, but unlike Amanzi Yimpilo, I don’t mind this one so much. I usually consider the racing at Woodbine to be a little weak, but her performance in an ungraded stakes, in which she swept past the field with ease in the stretch, was a bit too good to ignore. That was against fillies and she’ll be taking a big step up in class here, but the race will favor her running style. Like many in this year’s running, she may not be quite fast enough as she currently appears on paper, but the real problem here could be the outside post. Her running style leaves her highly vulnerable to getting caught wide.
13- Second of July
Grace: “A sweet and simpler time”
Esmé: “Another one where I wouldn’t want to be named Second in a race, but Second of July has a nice ring to it as opposed to July Second.”
Bettors slept on this Philip Gleaves trainee when he broke his maiden at 68-1 odds, and then they slept on him again when he won the G3 Futurity over three fellow runners at 15-1 odds. In the latter race, he showed an impressive turn of foot late to outkick After Five and County Final, the two best closers in that field. It would be very dangerous to go against him again here, but he does have his issues. The far outside post here could be deadly for a runner dependent on a good closing trip, and while he found a little trouble last time out and overcame it, it’ll be a little harder to work out a trip in such a large field.
14- Golden Pal
Grace: “Trump, to Putin”
Esmé: “Golden is a good one because of gold medal, and pal is just a cute word, so this one is approved.”
I’d like to take this opportunity to point out that Grace Getman is going to cost me half my readership.
Going into the Skidmore in August at Saratoga, I had already heard a lot of buzz about this runner following his excellent performance overseas in the G2 Norfolk. He lived up to the hype in every way that day, cruising home impressively to crush a short field that included Fauci, a formidable runner that’s given several on this Breeder’s Cup card trouble in the past. The 92 BSF he earned in victory is the only one in the race worth discussing, as it’s head and shoulders above the career high of any other runner. He hasn’t raced since August, which is a good thing for development and a bad thing for freshness. However, I trust Wesley Ward to have him ready, and Irad Ortiz had a tough choice to make and didn’t take long to make it. The post is a killer, but he possesses the speed necessary to minimize the effect. The only problem is that he may have to duel wide, an obstacle for even the most formidable speedsters.
ALSO-ELIGIBLES
15- Blame the Booze
16- Gypsy King
17- Trade Deal
They’re also-eligibles for a reason. I didn’t see much, although Trade Deal had a terrible trip last time out and probably deserves a second look underneath if he happens to sneak into the race.
Pat’s Order: 14 5 7 9
This is a wide open race made erratic by the natural progression of two-year-olds in this game. However, Golden Pal was running faster in August than many of his competitors are running now. Many of Ward’s runners are precocious, but based on what I’ve seen, this one seems to have insane natural ability. I won’t try to beat him here. That being said, I really like Cowan’s last race closing into lone speed. He’ll have a much better setup here and a great post position. I get the impression that one or two closers are going to make it through in the stretch, and if he’s one of them, there’s every chance he can overtake Golden Pal. Momos demonstrated a lot of bravery in his last start, and despite facing a lot of early pace here, I think he’ll have some staying power late. I think a closer from that very same race will also have a say here, and I think Second of July will be compromised by a wide post. That leaves After Five to take the final spot.
Grace’s Pick: 8- Amanzi Yimpilo (Ire)
“I could always use a candle.”
Esmé’s Pick: 6- Ubettabelieveit (Ire)
“There’s a bunch of good ones, but I think I’m gonna go with Ubettabelieveit because it’s funny and it’s clever how they squished it into one word, which makes it less clunky to read/say.”
To return to the Master List: https://paddypicks.com/breeders-cup-day-analysis-master-list/