This year’s Juvenile Turf one of the most difficult races I’ve ever handicapped. In a 14-horse field, there are very few runners that I didn’t view as a legitimate contender. It’s a race that will inevitably fall through the cracks on such a big racing weekend, but those that remember it will be the ones that cash massive tickets.
My guest for this race is Maggie McNamara, the Assistant Sports and Health Editor for The Fordham Observer. She’s the only person I’ve ever allowed to co-write an article with me, and her prospects as a future editor on the newspaper continue to rise with time. However, her favorite movie is Cars 2, which will inevitably hold her back in all facets of life.
Race 7
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, One Mile on the Turf
1- Sealiway (Fr)
Maggie: “O.K., either I’m missing something or this name makes no sense and I don’t know how to pronounce it. Not too confident in this horse”
His last victory was a major breakthrough in several ways, as he dominated a fairly solid field of runners by eight lengths with a 105 Timeform rating. That makes him a suitable runner in this spot, though it’s important to note that the French presence in this year’s Breeders’ Cup is minimal. Whether this is a result of the pandemic or the racing is unclear. This runner’s lost to fellow runner Go Athletico on two separate occasions, but he’s clearly not the same horse now. He’s a solid contender.
2- New Mandate (Ire)
Maggie: “The confidence in this name gives me confidence in the horse. I like the strong wording. Other horses will probably crumble in fear when they see this horse.”
This gelding’s really put the pieces together in his last two starts, finishing impressively from behind to win in increasingly difficult competition. It’s always nice to see a horse win several close races, as it demonstrates heart and a will to win. He hasn’t been quite as a sharp as others in here, but he’s certainly rounding into form and deserves a second look here.
3- Abarta
Maggie: “Has a nice ring to it. See comments for Sealiway but this flows off the tongue better so the horse must be better too.”
He nearly pulled off the 17-1 upset closing in the G2 Bourbon, but he came up short behind fellow runner Mutasaabeq. It was a solid performance, but it wasn’t all that fast, and I suspect he was dragged along by other closers in a perfect pace scenario. I don’t believe he’ll be repeating such a performance here.
4- Public Sector (GB)
Maggie: “This horse will probably be last. Would give this name a generous 3/10 but overall makes me think of public bathrooms which is never a pleasant thing.”
Well Maggie clearly has her reservations, but I’m regarding this runner a little more highly. He lost as the heavy favorite in the G2 Pilgrim last time out, finishing second behind speedster and fellow runner Fire At Will. However, lone speed in a small field is very difficult to run down, and the size of this field gives me reason to suspect a stronger performance from this Chad Brown trainee. Despite the poor trip last time out, he also showed a good deal of ability to finish second, and with better luck this time around, he’s yet another tough contender here.
5- Cadillac (Ire)
Maggie: “This horse is a strong contender for the win. In the words of the late Doc Hudson, ‘float like a Cadillac, sting like a Beamer.’ Strong name for a strong horse.”
He was very impressive two starts back, taking a G2 race by more than three lengths, but his most recent start leaves a little to be desired. In his G1 debut, he weakened late to finish fifth without improving like other runners here. He must be in this field for a reason, but on paper, he appears to be a half step below some of the other European runners. He does hold the class edge, however.
6- Mutasaabeq
Maggie: “While I am finding that I like names that make sense more, this is my favorite of the abstract ones thus far. Carries an air of mystique and grace.”
He was flying late to take the G2 Bourbon, but so was fellow runner Abarta, who failed to impress me. However, that was his turf debut after two dirt starts, and his victory could imply promise in his turf career going forward. I still can’t help but wonder how much of his performance that day was aided by the track being set up for closers.
7- Fire At Will
Maggie: “A very strong contender. I like the strong verb here but I do worry that it makes the horse seem like it’s the one getting fired at rather than the one doing the firing.”
He managed to defeat fellow runner Public Sector after taking a clear early lead in the G2 Pilgrim. However, I’ve already mentioned that I believe Public Sector to be the superior runner of the two. In a larger field, it’s unlikely that he’ll get such an easy lead again, which will force him to come from off the pace. He showed in the With Anticipation on dirt that he was capable of finding such a trip, but I prefer others here.
8- Outadore
Maggie: “Reminiscent of the matador. Generally sounds very macho, which is not always a good thing but might be in this context.”
Can he handle the stretchout? In two straight sprint races, this runner has been very impressive, maintaining a position near the lead each time and pulling away in the stretch. Such a position in a sprint race could translate into an early lead in a route race like this one, and I don’t mind that if Wesley Ward thinks he can handle the distance. Ward won this race in 2014 with Hootenanny, another sprinter stretching out. Based on the speed figures and likely pace setup, I think this is a potentially dangerous runner.
9- Battleground
Maggie: “I have similar concerns with this name as I had with Fire At Will. Battlegrounds generally get the short end of the stick as they are royally f***** up in the course of the battle. The other horses might just walk over this horse.”
Well I wasn’t expecting profanity from my guests on Breeders’ Cup Day. I apologize to my squeaky clean readership for this terrible, abhorrent language. Anyway, I like Battleground here. He hasn’t raced since July, and I don’t think he’s been facing the best and brightest in Europe, but he’s been handling them as if he was a superior runner. Aiden O’Brien clearly has a plan in training him up to this race over the fall, and I think it’s reasonable to expect some improvement. He’s very live.
10- Ebeko (Ire)
Maggie: “I like the harsh consonants here. Conveys strength and unyieldingness. Not sure if that’s a word but if it is this horse embodies it.”
Despite being experienced and well-traveled, I do not believe this runner has the ability to win here. The harsh consonants, however, do add something.
11- Gretzky the Great
Maggie: “Nice alliteration, always a smart move to call yourself great in a competition unless you lose in which case you look like a fool. Not sure if this is named after Wayne Gretzky, and while I’m not a Rangers fan, also smart to invoke imagery of another great competitor.”
Admittedly, I had forgotten that Gretzky played for the Rangers. The colt, on the other hand, has been lights out at Woodbine this year, racking up three victories in four starts and improving in every start. I’m always quick to discount the quality of the racing at Woodbine, but he does possess tactical speed that can come in handy anywhere. I’ll probably favor others here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he burned me.
12- Go Athletico (Fr)
Maggie: “Always here for a rhyme but this one is a little odd. Again, not sure if this one is named after Athletico Madrid, but if so this horse drops in the rankings in my book. Cheer on yourself, not another team (and especially not Athletico).”
He’s defeated Sealiway on two separate occasions, and much like his sparring partner, he also had a breakthrough in his last start. He may have come up short in his G2 debut, but the 103 Timeform rating he earned was a vast improvement over his previous starts. In addition, he’s never finished outside the top two in five starts. He’s clearly a contender here, but the outside post is somewhat concerning.
13- Devilwala (Ire)
Maggie: “I think this name has the right idea but doesn’t flow off the tongue quite right. Would give it a solid 5/10, not terrible but not great either.”
Maggie’s right that this feels like the ideal European turfer’s name, and yet, it misses the mark. On a similar note, this runner has never been favored in his career and hasn’t won since his maiden victory first time out. However, he does fit here somewhat after finishing fourth in the G1 Dewhurst at 100-1 odds. As 30-1 shots go, this isn’t a terrible option.
14- The Lir Jet (Ire)
Maggie: “Jet = speed and speed = good in a horse race. However, the ‘Lir’ is throwing me off a bit and I don’t know quite what to make of it. This horse is a strong contender nonetheless.”
When this runner defeated Golden Pal over the summer, he appeared to be a daunting presence on the juvenile turf scene. Things have really gone downhill from there, as he’s struggled mightily to take the next step forward in subsequent starts. In addition, he’ll be breaking from a very difficult post here, and his lack of significant early speed may hinder him greatly.
ALSO-ELIGIBLES
15- Barrister Tom
16- Harlan Estate
Pat’s Order: 9 8 4 1
Battleground and Outadore strike me as the most interesting runners in a completely wide open affair. Battleground seems well-poised to make a run in his stateside debut, while Outadore seems incredibly dangerous based on his speed advantage. They’re a relatively clear exacta for me, considering how evenly matched their competition is. My support for Public Sector is clearly a result of my New York bias, but I can’t quite get the Chad Brown effect out of my head. I’d be surprised if he didn’t make a run, because he sounds like a Breeders’ Cup winner, doesn’t he? Of the remaining European contingent, I believe Sealiway appears to be the most promising, though there are many, many others that can get into the top four here.
Maggie’s Pick: 5- Cadillac
“This field is full of strong contenders but at the end of the day my money’s on Cadillac. You can’t go wrong with a classic car that connects to both the Cars franchise and Bruce Springsteen, two things that I enjoy very much. This horse has both the backing of a great musical mind and the speed of every race car from Lightning McQueen to Francesco Bernoulli to Cruz Ramirez. Although some other horses might give Cadillac some trouble, I am confident that they will reign victorious in the end.”
To return to the Master List: https://paddypicks.com/breeders-cup-day-analysis-master-list/