This is yet another stout field of turf runners, but in this case, the American contingent may have the edge. Like so many other Breeders’ Cup races, however, finding the winner is nearly impossible due to the field size and talent on display. It’s as potentially profitable as it is frustrating.
Jill Rice and Gil Russo will be joining me as guests after their mixed success on Travers Day. Jill has continued on as an elite copy editor on The Observer, while Gil has continued to sharpen her satire skills while also running The Observer’s website as Online Editor.
Race 9
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, One Mile on the Turf
1- Oodnadatta (Ire)
Jill: “Sounds like a county upstate. Is that where Grace Getman is from?”
Gil: “That sounds like me trying to spell the name of the county Syracuse is in. Confusing and awkward. (No offense to the horse.)”
Her last race was in a G1 stakes overseas, in which she finished third at long odds. It was a vast improvement over her previous form, and her trainer’s confidence entering her in such a spot reflects her potential. However, the rail is a tricky spot to navigate, and I’m not entirely sure she’s quite good enough here anyway.
2- Miss Amulet (Ire)
Jill: “(Ooh do I have the filly race?) Miss Amulet sounds a lot more dainty than anyone else. Not sure she’ll do that well compared to others who might parachute out of planes (a reference to Swiss Skydiver)”
Gil: “Majestic but mysterious, like she could be hiding a secret such as her indomitable skill. Sounds like a contender.”
If she couldn’t handle the added distance, then I don’t believe she would be in this race. Assuming that’s a non-issue, there’s a lot to like about this filly. She’s highly experienced for a two-year-old, and has been consistently stepping up in class and improving along the upward curve. Her sprinting background will give her significant competing speed, though she isn’t alone in that ability in this field. Still, she’s a solid contender here.
3- Alda
Jill: “Ooh, like Aldi. Cheap but relatively reliable, she’s worth it for the price, so I think she can hold her own but not necessarily win against higher quality competitors.”
Gil: “Matronly. Could be the mark of a seasoned, worldly racer or else the equivalent of using a walker while running Olympic-level track.”
Her main asset in this race is her closing speed, which could come in handy if things get hot up front. She nearly won the G1 Natalma at Woodbine, though that spot seemed a little uncharacteristic for Graham Motion, who is typically a little more patient with his runners. She’s heading in the right direction and obviously appreciated the added distance, making her an outsider with a puncher’s chance late.
4- Plum Ali
Jill: “Plum Ali, according to breederscup.com, has won the three races that she’s entered in 2020, so I think she has a good chance of performing well in this one too.”
Gil: “Aw, I like that name. Plums are my favorite fruit. I support Plum Ali.”
Undefeated in three starts, she really hasn’t done much wrong in her two-year-old campaign. She’s won the right way from off the pace, a running style that suits those field well, and her speed figures are solid. Christophe Clement has had an incredible year, and a fourth straight victory for this runner would really close it out in style.
5- Aunt Pearl (Ire)
Jill: “Let’s hope it doesn’t rain during this race because real (Aunt) Pearls disintegrate in water. Aunt Pearl herself, named for the eponymous Aunt Pearl of somebody-or-other, is a gem of the first (hopefully dry) water and also has a chance at placing in this race.”
Gil: “See Alda.”
She’s had very easy leads in both of her career victories, but I’m not as put off by those performances. She didn’t inherit the lead but earned it, outrunning the field under fast fractions and holding well late. Her speed figures are solid, especially for a lightly raced filly, and the experienced at Keeneland can’t hurt. She may have to duel here though, which is a new test for a runner likely going off at shorter odds.
6- Nazuna (Ire)
Jill: “Nazuna is a perfectly respectable horse, nothing like her name, which nearly sounds like nausea, insinuates, but she’s also nothing special. An average result for an average horse (no offense to Nazuna of course).”
Gil: “This simultaneously screams ‘sci-fi character’ and ‘ancient civilization leader’; either way, there’s speed and power implied here. Nazuna’s a strong one, I feel it.”
She’s blown several starts in her career, but her one clean start resulted in her maiden victory. That being said, she appears to be a step slow anyway.
7- Tetragonal (Ire)
Jill: “It’s upsetting that the racetrack is a “discorectangle” (according to Wikipedia) and not tetragonal for this poor horse. She’d have a much better chance if it weren’t for those pesky semicircles on the ends.”
Gil: “Is this a horse race or a geometry class? Hard pass.”
In her second start out west, this dead closer showed what she could do with fast early fractions. After disappointing mightily first time out, she came flying down the center of the track but had to settle for second in a photo behind fellow runner Madone, who also beat her in her previous start. She’s headed in the right direction, and closing is probably a valuable running style here, but I have to wonder if she’ll get outkicked again.
8- Mother Earth (Ire)
Jill: “Mother Earth is connected to the dust under her feet, and on some days that’s perfect and makes her fly across the ground, but on others, she’s bogged down by the dirt, and it slows her pace. Given her 2020 experience, I’d say the latter is more likely.”
Gil: “There’s a lot of motherly horses in this race. But sorry, Alda and Aunt Pearl, no one can top the almighty Mother Earth. She’s got you two beat, at least.”
She hasn’t won a race since July, but she has been facing tougher competition in Europe. Her last performance was a significant improvement over previous starts and convinced Aiden O’Brien to ship her overseas to try her luck against the American contingent. I would’ve liked to see a big victory across the pond before I supported her here.
9- Madone
Jill: “Madone is from Kentucky like my dog Derby so I think she will do extremely well. She won at/on the Del Mar turf back in September, so I think she stands a chance for this race too.”
Gil: “I read that as “Madonna” at first glance. If this horse does anything as culturally significant as “Like a Prayer” (1989), it’s got my support.”
This filly has been tested in a lot of different ways in California recently. Two starts back, she had to weave through unimaginably bad traffic to seal the deal in an ungraded stakes, and then she was tested by fellow runner Tetragonal in her most recent start but held gamely to win again. She earned an 80 BSF to win that day, and her late running style may suit this race well. She may have to take another step forward, however.
10- Campanelle (Ire)
Jill: “Oh I’ve seen this name in my very professional and very serious Googling of these random names. Campanelle is undefeated and hopes to win this race, and I think that’s very nice. She’s got a good chance of winning, especially compared to some of the others, who have less of a chance of winning (who haven’t won as many races).”
Gil: “I think I have a box of that pasta in my pantry.”
She looks like the real deal here. Following a maiden victory at Gulfstream, Wesley Ward shipped her overseas, where she won two stakes races in Great Britain and France. She’s never raced at this longer distance, but her dominance at a sprint and Ward’s knack for stretching out runners minimizes that issue. She’s a super talented filly that’s been training at Keeneland for some time now.
11- Royal Approval
Jill: “Keeneland (where the race is held, I think) is in Kentucky. We don’t need no Royal Approval to git anything done ’round these here parts, so Royal Approval doesn’t have my vote for winning this race.”
Gil: “Wow, very bold. I guess if this one’s got royal approval, who am I to challenge that?”
In her last two starts, the other Ward filly has taken care of business, following up a maiden victory with a win in the G3 Matron against fellow runner Union Gables. She’s never run this far before, but again, that’s not such an issue for Ward in this spot. The real issue is that she’s been defeated by her stablemate Campanelle on two separate occasions. She also made that overseas trip but lost badly in the Queen Mary, while Campanelle won the event. She’s certainly playing the bridesmaid a little.
12- Spanish Loveaffair
Jill: “Since I have an hour left in listening to The Sun Also Rises, my mind immediately goes to the fruitless hope I have for Jake to end up with Brett. And I don’t think that’s happening, what with his war wounds and all. So I unfortunately have no faith that Spanish Loveaffair will win this race.”
Gil: “Qué romantico. My first thought is that a love affair finishes as quickly as it starts, and such is the case for a successful horse in a race. Godspeed to this one.”
In her graded stakes debut, she was competitive but failed to make up ground on fellow runner Aunt Pearl. My concern here is that the speed figure didn’t improve at all from August to October, leaving her little room to take the step forward here. However, she seems to appreciate the mile a little more, and a race under her belt at Keeneland could lead to further improvement this time around. She’s an outsider to consider.
13- Union Gables
Jill: “Although Kentucky remained part of the Union during the war, it really didn’t want to be. Union Gables might have a better chance at winning if her name were Rebel or Confederate in the land of Dixie.”
Gil: “This just sounds like a horse racing name. Like, when I imagine horse races, I imagine men in suits and fedoras betting on horses named Union Gables. That sounds like it would be a good thing, but do I really want to bet on the horse of the patriarchy?”
She failed to steal the race away from Royal Approval at 10-1 odds in the G3 Matron, despite establishing a clear early lead. She’ll have to improve significantly with added distance in her second turf start, at which point she could possibly qualify for a position in the top four.
14- Editor At Large (Ire)
Jill: “ME. Oh I like this one. Editor At Large is, like myself, a pedantic editor, so she has my heart. She might place below first, but she’s No. 1 in my eyes for her name alone.”
Gil: “What I call my newsroom colleagues when I can’t reach them on Slack. Kidding. “At large” means “on the run,” so I have faith in this horse to run with the urgency of an editor who knowingly put an Oxford comma in their article and has the copy team hunting them down.”
This draw is really a killer here, which is a shame for this promising filly. In only her second start, she finished well to take third behind fellow runner Plum Ali in the G2 Miss Grillo. She could very well improve again here, but the far outside won’t treat her very well in most cases.
ALSO-ELIGIBLES
15- Invincible Gal (GB)
16- Snowfall (Jpn)
Pat’s Order: 10 9 4 5
Campanelle strikes me as a very dangerous horse, because it’s very rare to see an American have such success overseas. Wesley Ward has been planning for this one, and I’m curious to see how she matches up against her contemporaries. Madone seems like the type that’s going to close regardless of her class, and if there are fractions here, I expect her to be around late. Plum Ali is obviously talented and could very well win here, but it felt a little obvious to place her too highly. Aunt Pearl will run as hard as she can for as long as she can, but I don’t believe she’ll hold late.
Jill’s Pick: 10- Campanelle (Ire)
“Campanelle because Pat said “she’s a beast” (note: they are all beasts as in beasts are animals and they are horses) and because she’s undefeated. She’s got a good chance, though I wouldn’t be surprised if someone else like Madone or someone won instead. I won’t be surprised no matter what because I don’t trust myself, but I will be very proud of my guessing if Campanelle does win.”
Gil’s Pick: 12- Spanish Loveaffair
“Between Nazuna, Miss Amulet, Royal Approval and the Mother Trio, there’s a lot of power to be had here. But it’s the boldness of Spanish Loveaffair that captivates me and, ultimately, wins my support. Buena suerte.”
To return to the Master List: https://paddypicks.com/breeders-cup-day-analysis-master-list/