This year’s Juvenile Fillies race has the smallest field in this year’s Breeders’ Cup, but it doesn’t lack at all in terms of competition. Many of these fillies are better than their male counterparts in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, although this race still retains its entrants because very few trainers want to try against Jackie’s Warrior. This is a compact field representing the top dirt fillies from Kentucky, New York and California, which should make for a very interesting race.
My guests for this race are Juliana Burke and Kristina Stevanovic, who both make their returns to Paddy’s Picks after providing analysis on Travers Day. Since picking Tiz the Law that day, Kristina has learned how to throw a baseball. Despite picking up some haters along the way, her rise to full-fledged second baseman is inevitable at this point. Meanwhile, Juliana recently suffered a sprained ankle while skateboarding. I’d like to say she’s taken the injury well, but she hasn’t. Lot of complaints. I’ve also noticed she was much faster before. Anyway, she’ll look to rebound after selecting sixth-place finisher Uncle Chuck in the Travers. She’s also asked that I include her analysis first for each runner, with her explanation being, “my opinion is superior.”
Race 8
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
1- Simply Ravishing
Juliana: “I think that is a beautiful name for a horse. It is very proper and very elegant.
Kristina: “Sounds lovely. I’d bet on this horse while wearing a nice hat.”
This filly has been brilliant in two dirt starts, and while the first was rained off the turf, the second was legitimate and the result was the same. She romped in both and actually improved with added distance, earning an 89 BSF in the G1 Alcibiades to defeat fellow runner Crazy Beautiful by six lengths. However, she did get an uncontested lead and soft fractions in that race, two luxuries she won’t likely get this time around. She’s certainly a talented filly, but she’ll have to win under more adverse conditions this time around.
2- Vequist
Juliana: “I don’t like it. Sounds evil.”
Kristina: “?????”
My two guests seem profoundly disturbed by the owner’s choice to combine the names of this filly’s parents, Nyquist and Vero Amore. The resulting name does, however, sound evil. After dominating the G1 Spinaway in September at Saratoga by nine lengths, she found an even more difficult test in the G1 Frizette. Facing fellow runner Dayoutoftheoffice, she improved to earn a 91 BSF but couldn’t quite muster enough to win, falling short by two lengths. As a result, she’ll have to improve if she wants to win, but that’s likely as that was her first route attempt. Luis Saez leaves to ride Simply Ravishing, but Robert Reid seems to have stumbled on a very solid runner here.
3- Dayoutoftheoffice
Juliana: “I like that one, but it sounds too wordy. This horse may be overworked since its name is.”
Kristina: “This sounds like someone asked what to name this horse and the guy answering was already in the middle of a sentence and this was the answer.”
After dominating the G1 Schuylerville at Saratoga by six lengths, this filly had a tough task in the G1 Frizette. Coming off a layoff with added distance is a challenge for any horse, but she handled it with ease, holding fellow runner Vequist well in hand to win by two lengths with a massive 95 BSF. Her sprinting background gives her excellent tactical speed, while her performance off such a long layoff could lead to further improvement. There’s a vague concern in the back of my mind that she could bounce, but she didn’t seem all that challenged in her last start and shouldn’t be too worn out here. She’ll be very tough.
4- Thoughtfully
Juliana: “That is sweet. Probably a genuine horse. But since she is weak and fragile she will not go far.”
Kristina: “Good name. Thoughtfully lost, Thoughtfully won. Being thoughtful is always a good thing.”
On a philosophical level, I agree with Kristina wholeheartedly in this instance. However, I must regretfully mention that this filly struggled mightily in the G1 Alcibiades behind fellow runners Simply Ravishing and Crazy Beautiful. She’ll have to improve significantly to win here.
5- Girl Daddy
Juliana: “WOAH. Way too sexual for my liking. However, seems like a fierce competitor.”
Kristina: “Creepy. I’m picturing a young girl with a baby that has a beard.”
She seems to be a very promising filly, and her performance in the G3 Pocohantas shouldn’t illicit too many complaints. She controlled the field easily to defeat fellow runner Crazy Beautiful and earn an 82 BSF. She hasn’t raced in a while and is trying added distance for the first time, which means that Dale Romans will be asking a lot of her here. However, he knows when to push his horses, and it’s likely that she’ll be prepared for this start. She’s an outside contender.
6- Crazy Beautiful
Juliana: “Aw that one is also sweet. Reminds me of myself.”
Kristina: “They named a horse after me?”
Humility abounds on Paddy’s Picks this afternoon. This filly has lost two straight races to fellow runners Simply Ravishing and Girl Daddy, making her a fairly obvious long shot. She didn’t have great racing luck in either start, however, which could indicate sneaky improvement. As 20-1 shots go, she’s interesting, but she’ll have to improve.
7- Princess Noor
Juliana: “Eh, I’m shaky on that one. I feel as if the horse might be a strong contender, but might also come from daddy’s money and could be spoiled. Could lead to her downfall.”
Kristina: “Princess neither”
I’m going all in on my New York bias here, because the Beyer boys seem to be with me. This Baffert filly has won three straight races out west without much of a challenge, but the speed figures she’s been earning have been paltry in comparison to her eastern counterparts. Despite winning three starts by a combined 17 lengths, her figures indicate that she would lose to Dayoutoftheoffice by open lengths. If she’s favored at post time, I’ll readily go against her.
Pat’s Order: 3 2 5 6
Dayoutoftheoffice should be favored in this race in every instance. She’s demonstrated ability statistically as well as visually, and she’s yet to be truly tested despite facing tough competition. She’s the pick here, and 5-2 would be a criminal price. Vequist is another runner that could improve in her second route attempt, but I don’t have any reason to suspect she could out-improve her old foe. Girl Daddy will likely challenge Simply Ravishing on the front end, and while I believe she’ll win that exchange, I doubt she’ll manage to hold off other rivals. Crazy Beautiful sneaks into the top four as a potential sleeper candidate in exotic betting.
Juliana’s Pick: 6- Crazy Beautiful
“I identify with that horse. I believe I am both crazy and beautiful, and together it is an even more powerful combo. I find that this horse is probably slept on, but when in action, she’s ruthless.”
Kristina’s Pick: 4- Thoughtfully
“I would go with Thoughtfully. Naming something an adverb can go a long way in terms of what they do. Like I said, can’t be mad at a win or loss because at least it was Thoughtful.”
To return to the Master List: https://paddypicks.com/breeders-cup-day-analysis-master-list/