Race 7
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 3/16 Miles on the Turf
1- Starship Jubilee
Before her last race, this mare would have had to improve a little to have a chance. That performance against the boys in the Woodbine Mile was very impressive, however, and qualifies her as a contender here. She has a stalking style that’s suited to any situation, but I’m not sure of the quality of the horses she was beating up there in Canada,
2- Sistercharlie (Ire)
It may seem like she’s over the hill at this point, but that’s what people said about Got Stormy earlier this year too. The truth is that she’s one of the best turfers in recent memory, and while she’ll have to get back to some of her better performances last year to win here, I’m not ruling it out entirely. She’ll likely be overbet on that premise though.
3- Peaceful (Ire)
Coming off a big loss is never a great thing, but before that, this runner was competing well in Europe. That’s promising and all, but I think there are a few too many variables to take her with any confidence.
4- Mean Mary
She’s only as effective as the lead she acquires, which always seems to be clear and uncontested. She’s a serious contender here, and one of the few turf routers in the country that can outrun fellow runner Rushing Fall early on. Unfortunately, Rushing Fall beat her gamely last time out in the G1 Diana. I could easily see another stretch duel forming, and it remains to be seen who comes out on top over Keeneland.
5- My Sister Nat (Fr)
Her late running style has been frustrating as of late, as she always seems to be around without winning that big event she needs to break through. She’ll have to take a step forward in the biggest race of her life after taking consecutive losses to fellow runner Civil Union.
6- Rushing Fall
Based on her form over the summer, she appears to be the pick here. The layoff was likely Chad Brown’s decision to train her up to this event, so I’m not all that concerned about that. She has tactical speed and will likely stalk Mean Mary, as she did when she won the G1 Diana. She seems tough to beat here.
7- Terebellum (Ire)
My analysis for Peaceful works very well here. Coming off a loss, improvement is certainly possible for this European, but I wouldn’t want to wager on that prospect.
8- Mucho Unusual
She’ll have to improve significantly to win here.
9- Harvey’s Lil Goil
She’s established herself as one of the top three-year-old turf fillies around with victories in the G3 Regret and G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup. However, her speed figures are light as she prepares to face older horses. She’ll have to improve, and I don’t really see it.
10- Civil Union
Those with encyclopedic memories will recall that I picked this horse to win in her last start at the allowance level. She’s taken off since then, winning four straight races of exceeding class. However, despite the fact that her races have become more competitive in class, she’s been beating many of the same runners, like fellow runner My Sister Nat. The strength of those fields is questionable, and her speed figures will have to improve slightly regardless.
11- Audarya (Fr)
I’m intrigued. This filly struggled for a long time overseas before improving significantly in her last three starts. The Breeders’ Cup is all about runners rounding into form, and this seems to be one such case. I also appreciate that she’s won in several close races. I think she’s an interesting option to consider, despite the weaker European contingent in the race.
12- Lady Prancealot (Fr)
She’ll have to improve a ton.
13- Nay Lady Nay (Ire)
In her last graded stakes attempt, she finished third behind fellow runners Civil Union and My Sister Nat. I consider that a weak prep for this event anyway, so she’ll have to exceed my expectations in several respects to win.
14- Cayenne Pepper (Ire)
This is another European rounding into form, but there are a few issues. The first is the post, which is less brutal on the turf but brutal nonetheless. The second is that I’m unsure of the quality of the races that she’s been competing in. I’m mostly just uncertain, which usually keeps me from betting.
Order: 11 6 4 2
I’m very, very tempted to take Audarya on top, but Rushing Fall does look mighty daunting. I think I’ll take the shot with a warning that Rushing Fall appears to be much the best. From there, Mean Mary seems to have the competing speed to find a minor prize here, if not a wire-to-wire victory. Meanwhile, I think Sistercharlie finds her step a little, but doesn’t challenge as she used to.