The Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint can sometimes be a little overshadowed by other events on the massive Saturday card. This rendition, however, could be one for the ages, given its collective star power. Several extremely talented sprinters, new and old, have made their way onto the scene this year, setting up for an excellent race.
Emma Moquin and Lucas Ludgate will be weighing in as guests with me for this race and many others today. They’re arguably the two best students of the game I’ve happened to have, and they’ll be giving analysis for races all day for this epic event.
Race 4
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
1- Speech
Emma: Everyone’s favorite Moquin is back. Speech has my all-time favorite jockey on him (Castellano) and is paired with an excellent trainer with the jockey-trainer percentage of 44% to back it up. She seems to have inconsistent speed figures, which I find to be a little concerning. She has also lost to Gamine and Venetian Harbor in the past, but has since beat Venetian Harbor in July. She has not had the best workouts as of late either. This horse is a contender, but I’m not sure she can beat Gamine. Like Gamine, she is a lead horse and I think Gamine is better at keeping this lead.
Lucas: good J/T combo, more of a longer distance type
I was somewhat encouraged when this filly took a big step forward in the G1 Ashland, defeating Venetian Harbor and setting herself up as a contender in the Kentucky Oaks. However, she was really a non-factor in that next start, which the connections are apparently chalking up to the added distance. Shortening up for the Breeders’ Cup is the move then, but something’s making me a little uncertain. I’m not sure this short distance will suit her in comparison to others in the field.
2- Gamine
Emma: This horse has proven herself time and time again. You can’t do much better than Velazquez and Baffert as your jockey and trainer and her speed figures speak for themselves. She did show a possibility of defeat in her last race, when she came in third in the Kentucky Oaks. Despite this, I still think she is one of the best horses in the race and is in my opinion the horse to beat.
Lucas: clear favorite, early speed
Well, nothing’s changed on my end. She may have failed another drug test, but the methods of Mr. Baffert have no effect on my adoration for this very talented filly. If she can repeat her performance in the G1 Test, when she sprinted and easily defeated fellow runner Venetian Harbor by open lengths, then this race shouldn’t be in question. However, while she had to duel that day, it’s unlikely that she’ll only have one runner to fight off here. Even still, I really appreciate her chances.
3- Come Dancing
Emma: Come Dancing is an interesting horse. She seemed to have hit a bit of a rut in November of last year, but she slowly seems to be getting her mojo back. Her speed figures have been steadily increasing with each race in her past four races and she has been having excellent workouts. She has lost to Serengeti Empress in the past, but since she has switched jockeys and she seems to be doing much better with Irad Ortiz Jr. Than Castellano. I really like this horse, but I don’t know if she is quite ready to face this level of competition just yet.
Lucas: don’t know what to do (early speed)
I hate to say that this mare is over the hill, especially after an impressive victory in the G2 Honorable Miss. However, to win this race, she will have to regain a little more of her old form to have a chance. Carlos Martin has been training her up to this, which means that such an improvement could come, but I’m too enticed by others to give her win consideration.
4- Inthemidstofbiz
Emma: Inthemidstofbiz has a jockey and trainer I have never heard of. They seem to have a pretty decent jockey-trainer percentage of 21%, but I tend to stay away from horses that don’t have a team I have seen before. This horse does seem to have pretty good workouts and seems to be improving with each of her races according to her speed figures. I have the same concern as I did with Come Dancing that this horse isn’t ready for this level of competition, but I am more wary because I am not familiar with this jockey trainer combo.
Lucas: Will be trying longer distance here
This is one of those cases where an average horse suddenly finds their stride later in their career. After wallowing in allowance competition for a year, this filly has come alive in her last three starts, culminating in a three-length win in the G2 TCA. She earned a 95 BSF that day and the best runners in these races are the ones that pea, at the right time. Maybe she’ll manage a say underneath as she tries an extra furlong.
5- Sconsin
Emma: Sconsin has yet another jockey-trainer combo that I am not completely familiar with, but again they seem to be okay with their 23% jockey-trainer percentage. This horse has not had great workouts, but her speed figures have been increasing with each race. I don’t believe this horse can beat Gamine.
Lucas: Can come from behind (value play)
Her last start, a come-from-behind victory in the G2 Eight Belles, is the one that qualifies her for this start, and I think it’s a little dressed up. Four Graces and Mundaye Call dueled each other Into the ground that day and opened it up for Sconsin in a big way. On another note, both of those runners came back to lose their next start. This race also features a lot of speed, but I consider it quality speed that might hold a little while longer. I’m unsure whether she can make up the ground in this spot.
6- Venetian Harbor
Emma: Venetian Harbor has my father’s all-time favorite jockey, Manny Franco, and the jockey-trainer percentage is the best in the race (50%). This horse has very consistent speed figures with good workouts. She has previously lost to Gamine and Speech, but has also beat Speech. This horse is familiar with the other horses in the field and she came in second in each race she lost against Gamine and Speech. She is a contender for sure.
Lucas: early speed
I’m actually a big fan of this filly, as she’s been a very brave dueler in the face of some stiff competition this season. This race exists for a runner like her, a three-year-old that never had a chance going long in the Oaks. However, she’ll now have to duel with the likes of Serengeti Empress, and we’ve already seen her try to duel Gamine in the G1 Test. She’ll make an honest run, but I’m not sure what that will look like in the end.
7- Serengeti Empress
Emma: Serengeti Empress has Saez has a jockey trainer percentage of 29%, but to be frank I am not the biggest Saez. This horse seems to be very hot and cold with one race having a 98-speed figure and in the next having a 78. Unpredictability is never a good thing. In her last race, she came in second, losing to Bell’s the One and beating Sally’s Curlin. She has also had pretty solid workouts. This horse is definitely good, but I don’t believe she can beat Gamine.
Lucas: early speed
I really gave up on her too early. I always sort of considered the 2019 Kentucky Oaks win a fluke and she always struck me as a speedball, so when she lost a step earlier this year, I readily began to dismiss her. However, in the G1 Ballerina, she delivered one of the bravest performances I’ve seen all year, fighting against several horses for the lead and withstanding a host of late challengers to hold on and win. An immense performance like that one deserves recognition, but she’ll have to do it again here against newer, younger early speed types. She already had to come close to repeating it in the G1 Derby City Distaff, when she set another blinding pace, hung on late but came up short in a photo against fellow runner Bell’s the One.
8- Sally’s Curlin
Emma: Sally’s Curlin is a very average horse. She has an okay jockey-trainer percentage and fine workouts. She has lost to Bell’s the One twice and Serengeti Empress once. This horse also doesn’t have the speed figures that she should to do well in this race. This horse is the definition of “eh”. I don’t believe she will win the race.
Lucas: Toss
She finished behind fellow runners Serengeti Empress and Bell’s the One in her last start, and has never demonstrated the speed necessary to win a race of this caliber.
9- Bell’s the One
Emma: Bell’s the One is another interesting horse. I am not in love with this jockey-trainer combo, but this horses’ past races are what I really like about this horse. She had her best performance at this length in her last race and beat two horses that are also in this race. I don’t think this is something that should be overlooked. I am not sure if she can beat Gamine, so I think she is an interesting horse that would make a good addition to an exacta bet.
Lucas: can come from behind
She’ll need a pace to run at up front, but it’s very likely that she’ll get one, which makes her very dangerous here. In her last start, she did just enough to capitalize on the blinding pace of fellow runner Serengeti Empress to win by a nose. Demonstrating that ability in that start is very helpful in figuring out her game plan here. I’m just concerned that many of the pacesetters will be more stubborn in this race, which may give her a tall task coming from the back of the pack.
Pat’s Order: 2 7 9 3
I think the pace will be hot, but the fillies setting that pace will have staying power in the stretch. It’s a bold prediction that I don’t usually make, but Gamine is a runner that’s always had my respect and Serengeti Empress is another that’s recently earned it. I’m giving the former the edge because she’s been faster by a significant margin and also draws the inside post. Bell’s the One and Come Dancing could very well be around to pick up the pieces, but I’m not sure they’ll manage to reach the front of the pack considering the competition they’re giving a head start.