Race 10
Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
1- Ce Ce
Emma: Ce Ce seems to be in a bit of a rut as of late. Her speed figures have been on a downward trend, but I have hope for her now that she has recently switched to good ol’ Johnny V. Her workouts have been pretty good and she has shown that when she is on her game, she is capable of beating other horses in the field (Point of Honor and Ollie’s Candy). If Johnny V can get her back on her game, she is a formidable opponent, but we shall see.
Lucas: good J/T, stepping up on the dirt, unlikely
Earlier this year, the argument could be made that she was the best older female in the country. Those days have passed, and she’s struggled to get involved in consecutive starts since. She’ll have to regain some of her old form to have any chance.
2- Harvest Moon
Emma: Harvest Moon has a fascinating jockey-trainer combo that I can’t help, but respect. I favor Ce Ce’s a little more, but this horse does have a much higher jockey-trainer percentage. This horse is also on a bit of a hot streak of late and has been having some great workouts. Her 97-speed figure in her last is also very impressive. She is however a lead horse and is not the only one in the race (Horologist). This is something to consider. She is not my pick to win.
Lucas: early speed hype, longer distance, decent value
With serious tactical speed, this filly has been a terror on the West Coast and is currently riding a winning streak of four races. She’s won two graded stakes as well, but I’m concerned that her competition has been far weaker than what she’ll be facing here.
3- Dunbar Road
Emma: Dunbar Road has my favorite jockey trainer combo that I have seen so far. Brown and Jose Ortiz are always a safe bet and have my full trust. In her last race, she lost to Horologist and Point of Honor, which isn’t the best. She does, however, have great workouts. To be honest, I find this horse to be very confusing and I don’t trust that. I do not think she will win.
Lucas: Chad Brown, decent
As a three-year-old, she was an extremely tough filly destined to win a race like this one. However, she hasn’t really developed at four, and others have definitely surpassed her. She can improve in her second race off the layoff, but it’s unclear if that will be enough to beat some of the others in here.
4- Horologist
Emma: Horologist seems to be yet again another inconsistent horse. In his last race she had a 100-speed figure (came in 1st beating Point of Honor and Dunbar Road), but in the race before that she had an 89-speed figure (came in 3rd losing to Monomoy Girl and Lady Kate). In past races she has also lost to Ce Ce and Ollie’s Candy. One could argue now that Alvarado is the jockey and was her jockey in her last race, that this is the change needed for her to succeed. I don’t know if I’m quite sold. Her workouts are good and all, I just don’t know if she has the ability to beat Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver. She is also a lead horse, like Harvest Moon. My prediction is they will tire each other out.
Lucas: Excellent
After coming up empty at Churchill two starts back, many suspected that her stellar performance in the G3 Molly Pitcher at Monmouth was a fluke. Then, at 7-1, she improved upon that performance at Belmont in the G2 Beldame Invitational. She’s earned two triple-digit speed figures now and enters this race poised for an upset.
5- Swiss Skydiver
Emma: Swiss Skydiver is another horse that has proven herself. She won in the Preakness with an impressive 105 speed figure and has beaten horses like Authentic and Gamine, which is no small feat. This horses’ speed figures in her last four races are beyond impressive. I believe if she is able to hang back, like she has done in her last two races, and let Horologist and Harvest Moon tire themselves out, she can win this.
Lucas: Extremely good
She’s defeated Gamine and Authentic, two of the best three-year-olds in the country. She’s the first filly to win the Preakness since Rachel Alexandra. Her performance in that race was one of the gamest of the year, as she fought Authentic for the entire stretch and prevailed at the wire. She deserves every bit of praise she’s been given, and she certainly deserves favoritism here.
6- Lady Kate
Emma: Lady Kate is another eh horse. I don’t love Gaffalione on this horse or in general. Lady Kate has beaten Horologist before, but has lost to Valiance, Ollie’s Candy, and Monomoy Girl (twice). Her speed figures are nothing to brag about and neither are her workouts. Overall, not a fan.
Lucas: Toss
Take everything I said about Swiss Skydiver and flip it. I don’t consider this one a contender.
7- Point of Honor
Emma: Point of Honor has my boy Castellano on her, which is always a good thing. In the past she has beaten Dunbar Road, Ce Ce, and Ollie’s Candy. She has beaten Dunbar Road and Lady Kate. Obviously, she is very comfortable with the competition, which I see as a good thing as well. While her speed figures aren’t anything crazy, they show slight improvement with each race, which is promising. Do I think she can beat Swiss Skydiver or Monomoy? No.
Lucas: probably won’t win but good for odds, consider in exacta
She’s always a contender but never quite manages to get across the line first. For a horse that hasn’t won since May 2019, it’s very difficult to visualize a victory here.
8- Valiance
Emma: Valiance has Saez on her, which isn’t my favorite, but I do like Pletcher so I guess they cancel each other out. Valiance beat Ollie’s Candy in her last race. Her speed figures, much like Point of Honor’s are nothing to brag about, but are slowly improving with each race, which is always nice to see. She is on a bit of a hot streak, but I am afraid that that will come to an end today. I just don’t think this horse can beat her competition.
Lucas: decent
It took the rain to convince Todd Pletcher to switch her to the dirt, but she’s made up for lost time quickly. In her first real dirt start in the G1 Spinster, she pulled off the upset and defeated fellow runner Ollie’s Candy and Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil. It was a very solid performance, but there’s another tier of fillies and mares here that she’ll have to improve to defeat.
9- Ollie’s Candy
Emma: Ollie’s Candy is a name I have written so many times in this race that I am currently shocked I haven’t officially analyzed him yet. It seems that his name is all over and he has raced many of the horses already. Something I noticed is the fact that in her second highest speed figure race (98) she still lost to Ce Ce, which to me signifies that even at her very best, Ollie’s Candy is still unable to pull off a win. She did beat Ollie’s Candy later on with her highest speed figure ever (100), but still lost to another horse. This to me shows that even when this horse is performing at her best she can’t win at this level.
Lucas: decent
She’s real quick and could probably get the lead here if she wanted it. However, hanging on has been the issue lately, as she’s had a lot of trouble finding the winner’s circle this year. I wouldn’t support the notion that today’s the day where she breaks this losing streak, now over a year old despite consistently high speed figures.
10- Monomoy Girl
Emma: Monomoy Girl is on the biggest streak I have seen in awhile, winning her past 10 races. She even beat Lady Kate and Horologist in her last race. Her speed figures are consistent and very impressive. I have nothing to say about her jockey Geroux because it seems as though he is working well with the horse to say the least. She is a bit of a lead horse, which I always tend to kick against. She is a tough horse to beat though. Definitely one of the best horses in the race, if not the best.
Lucas: very good
Before there was Swiss Skydiver, there was Monomoy Girl. She’s had two distinct racing careers, each one just as brilliant. She seems to run as hard as she needs to in order to win, which could mean her speed figures are erratic as a result. I think she’s one of two potential winners here, and she is another one that’s earned odds under 2-1.