Breeders’ Cup Analysis: Dirt Mile with Guest Lucas Ludgate

Race 6

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Dirt

1- Art Collector

Lucas: very good horse, might want a little more distance

I liked him in the Preakness, but that was apparently a little too far for him, which explains the cutback. There’s not too much to say about this one, because he’s a reliable pick. He’s a professional that can certainly make a difference here, but it’s notable that he’ll have to take a small step forward against older to win.

2- Sharp Samurai

Lucas: great horse, odds, J/T combo (not a closer)

A turf horse nearly his entire career, this gelding turned a few heads when he ran gamely behind Maximum Security in the G1 Pacific Classic. He possesses a stalking style that’s very appealing in a race like this, and it seems like he’s still in great condition based on his turf form. That being said, it’s not always wise to bet on one race, and I feel that he’ll have to take a step forward to win here.

3- Silver Dust

Lucas: Toss

He hasn’t really broken through as a contender at this level.

4- War of Will

Lucas: Turf horse

The 2019 Preakness winner is extremely difficult to forecast making his first dirt start since last year. He’s clearly versatile and has taken a step forward as a four-year-old. However, it’s impossible to tell how that improvement on the turf will transfer to the dirt. I’d view him with caution.

5- Knicks Go

Lucas: great horse, early speed

This horse went from Breeders’ Cup Juvenile shocker to laughing stock to obscurity. Now, he’s suddenly turning in monster performances in allowances as a four-year-old. I love this sport. Based on the massive 107 BSF he earned in an allowance victory at Keeneland, he fits extremely well in this field. However, it’s very difficult to predict how that speed figure will improve or regress with such a massive step up in class. I might not be betting him, but a part of me is rooting for him.

6- Mr. Money

Lucas: Toss

He’s seen better days, and while a victory in his last start is encouraging, it seems that a further improvement is asking a lot.

7- Rushie

Lucas: Toss

I really like Rushie as an individual, because he’s mixed it up with some of the best three-year-olds in the country and competed well, but seldom receives recognition for it. In this spot, however, he seems overmatched.

8- Pirate’s Punch

Lucas: Toss

He’s been beating up on lowly Monmouth competition for some time now, but he’ll have to improve to take this one.

9- Mr Freeze

Lucas: Toss

At one point an extremely potent runner, it appears that he’s lost a step since last year.

10- Complexity

Lucas: early speed, best max performance, can come from behind when needed

Is he as good as his speed figure? The 110 BSF he earned in the G2 Kelso was extremely impressive, but was likely a little dressed up by a favorable track and pace scenario. That being said, he’s been a force at this distance in the past, and finally seems to be stepping into the mold laid out for him when he lost badly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile two years ago. This may mark his ascension after a very checkered career.

11- Jesus’ Team

Lucas: Toss

I didn’t like him in the Preakness, so it makes very little sense for me to like him here.

12- Owendale

Lucas: Toss

He’s one of my personal favorites, right up there with Frosted and Sadler’s Joy. I really appreciate a runner that always puts in an honest effort, and this horse simply doesn’t have bad races. He doesn’t seem too overmatched, but the main problem is that he doesn’t really improve often. The post is also very treacherous for him because he lacks significant competing speed, though he did display some of it in a softer field last time out. I’ll be rooting for him.

Pat’s Order: 10 4 5 12

I don’t love Complexity, but unfortunately, this is a fairly weak field for him to deal with. War of Will and Knicks Go are the two that I think stand the best chance of competing with him, but they both have serious question marks attached that make them difficult to support wholeheartedly. Owendale sneaks ahead of Sharp Samurai because I’m biased.

Lucas’ Bet: 2-10 exacta box