Breeders’ Cup Analysis: Classic

Race 12

Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt

1- Tacitus

Emma: Tacitus has an excellent jockey-trainer combo with Jose Ortiz and Mott. This horse has the necessary speed figures and has them at a pretty consistent rate. He has lost to Global Campaign. By My Standards, and Maximum Security (twice). He has pretty good workouts, but Tacitus is a classic lead horse. If he doesn’t get the lead to himself, he is bound to fade. I don’t believe he will win.

Lucas: very good

I think my guests have this one cornered. Tacitus is a very good horse, but he doesn’t often deliver on the biggest stages. When there’s an equally talented horse running against him, he doesn’t often have the heart to put them away. In this race, there are several that are plainly superior to him, and improvement is unlikely.

2- Tiz the Law

Emma: Tiz the Law is a name everyone is already familiar with and is a horse that doesn’t need my analysis, but I will do it anyway. Hey Dad look it’s Franco again! Thank God! Franco has already ridden this horse enough and has shown that he is a fine jockey for him. He has a high-speed figure of 109 and has not had a speed figure below 100 in his past three races. Tiz the Law, however, has a lot to prove since Authentic beat him in the Kentucky Derby and now we get to see if Tiz the Law had an off day or if Authentic is just better.

Lucas: He’s Tiz the Law.

Here’s my problem: I want this so badly. I want Tiz the Law to win this race with every fiber of my being. As a result, I have to second-guess myself, even though I think my logic is sound. I think his win in the G1 Travers is indicative of his ability, while his loss in the Kentucky Derby was a result of his dislike of Churchill Downs. This is a new track for him, but if he can return to his form from over the summer, I don’t think any of the older horses here can beat him. Apparently I’ve imparted this bias onto my two students as well.

3- By My Standards

Emma: By My Standards has another Saez on him and I’m not familiar with him so I’m just going to go by his good jockey-trainer percentage. This horse does have the speed figures to be in the race and has excellent workouts. He has beat Tom d’Etat, but lost to Improbable, Tom d’Etat, and Maximum Security. This horse is okay, but I do not believe he can beat both Authentic and Tiz the Law.

Lucas: very good, early speed

He’s run incredibly well against several of the heavyweights in this race, like Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat. However, he’s never really notched that victory over them to establish himself as a real contender. He could very well be there at the end, but it’s hard to see him winning this event.

4- Tom’s d’Etat

Emma: Tom’s d’Etat has Rosario on him and Rosario to me is very average. He’s fine, but not my top choice. His speed figures are fantastic and consistent. He has both won and lost to Improbable and By My Standards. This horse doesn’t really have a clear running style, which is interesting, but good in the sense that he can adapt to the race. I don’t think he can beat Tiz or Authentic, but he could be a good pick in a trifecta.

Lucas: very good

He’s a very sneaky option that will take a lot of spoilers’ money, and rightfully so. At one point in time, he was the best horse in the country, but an unlucky start in the G1 Whitney led to a disappointing third place finish behind fellow runner Improbable, who won near the front through a very soft pace. My only issue with him is the layoff, which is extremely long for this race. The only horse to ever win the Classic off a three-month layoff was Invasor in 2006.

5- Title Ready

Emma: Title Ready has a jockey I am not familiar with and therefore I am already wary. This horse doesn’t seem to have the speed figures he should to compete with the horses in the race. He has never had a triple digit speed figure. He has lost to By My Standard in the past as well. A positive of this horse is its workouts, which are great. I don’t think this horse will win.

Lucas: Toss

I’d be stunned.

6- Higher Power

Emma: Higher Power has an okay jockey-trainer combo. I mean it’s fine. This horse has underperformed in his past two races with lower-than-expected speed figures and lost to Maximum Security in both of those races. And in the race before that he had a 101-speed figure and still lost to Improbable. This doesn’t bode well for Higher Power. I don’t think he will be able to win this race.

Lucas: Toss

I’d be slightly less stunned. What’s a good way to put it. Taken aback. After a loss to Improbable and another two against Maximum Security, I’d be taken aback if Higher Power won the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

7- Global Campaign

Emma: Global Campaign has been crushing it his past two races and has beaten Tacitus. I also believe that Castellano is a step up from his last jockey Saez. His workouts are okay, but nothing too special. I don’t have much else to say about this horse other than the fact I don’t think it will win.

Lucas: early speed

He’s really come along lately, with several races straight indicating improvement. He’s also taken to the early speed running style, which gave him the victory in the G1 Woodward over fellow runner Tacitus. However, I don’t see him contending with some of the others in here in any capacity beyond a pace presence.

8- Improbable

Emma: Improbable has also been kicking ass his past three races. In just these races alone he has beaten Maximum Security, By My Standards, Tom’s d’Etat, Higher Power. I think replacing Van Dyke with Van Dyke is a supercalifragilisticexpialidocious idea. It is also encouraging that within these past three races his speed figures are just continuing to increase. This horse is crazy good and definitely adds some exciting spice to the race.

Lucas: Stud

Improbable has been on fire lately, notching three straight victories in graded stakes competition with some eye popping speed figures. It establishes him as the likely favorite, and that designation is well-deserved. I’ve always liked Improbable, but I’m beginning to get the impression that his recent performances have been ever so slightly dressed up. He hasn’t really been against the race flow in any of his recent performances, nor has he had all that much trouble. He beat Tom’s d’Etat after he stumbled, while he got a perfect trip behind Mr. Buff through soft fractions. He beat Maximum Security with a deep closing performance that played perfectly with the track. He could very well win this race and Horse of the Year honors, but I don’t think he’s the best play.

9- Authentic

Emma: Authentic is another name that everyone is familiar with at this point, although his street cred has gone down since losing to Swiss Skydiver in the Preakness. You really can’t go wrong with Baffert and Johnny V. though and this horse is definitely in the running to win this race. We also have to remember that this horse has also already beaten Tiz in the Kentucky Derby, which no one really expected, so we know this horse is capable of some surprises. However, Authentic won’t have the lead to himself this time, which causes me to think that he won’t be so lucky today.

Lucas: early speed

He’s been perfect as of late, and maybe that’s not the best thing. His performance in the Kentucky Derby was probably the very best he was capable of that day. His performance in the Preakness, a losing one to Swiss Skydiver, was also just about his best. Both earned him 105 speed figures, which would not be able to defeat Maximum Security, Tiz the Law or Improbable on their best days. He’s an excellent horse that might have another bullet in the chamber, but I have my questions.

10- Maximum Security

Emma: Maximum Security is an extremely impressive horse. His speed figures are insane and the best in the race. What is curious to me is the fact that Improbable beat him in his last race. It definitely shows that this horse is beatable and that today’s race will be a challenge for him. His jockey is Saez though and I am not a fan so I’m leaning towards Improbable if I had to pick one for a trifecta.

Lucas: excellent

As much as I dislike this colt, I have to admit that he’s being slept on a little here. I think his defeat against Improbable last time out was more of a fluke. He’s capable of much more than that, and I’m very afraid we may see it here. Besides that race, he’s been brilliant this year, and a victory here would be yet another chapter in a very tumultuous, controversial career.

Pat’s Order: 2 10 8 4
Emma’s Order: 2 8 9
Lucas’ Pick: 2- Tiz the Law