For the rest of my life, Belmont Stakes weekend will always make me think of Paddy’s Picks most.
When I first launched this website on June 5, 2020, the reception I received from readers in every corner of my life was overwhelming. I’m grateful to have this platform to return to again and again, and I’m just as grateful that many of you have stuck around.
At first, Paddy’s Picks was simply a preferable alternative to watching the grass grow in the backyard and taking trips to 7/11 in a hazmat suit. The pandemic affected all of us in different ways, and my unhinged response to the chaos was to get a pony blog going. The site has evolved as the world returned to normal and I took on other responsibilities, but every now and again, I like to turn back the clock. It’s time for some classic full-card analysis, as it was in the beginning. I hope you’re all with me.
Over the years, the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival has quietly become one of the most competitive and star-studded events in horse racing, though it still lives in the shadows of larger events throughout the year. This Friday card is merely a preamble to an even bigger day tomorrow, but these races alone could satisfy any racing fan with room to spare. Let’s get going.
Belmont, Race 1
$75,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 12:50 p.m. ET
1- Flying in Style
7- Fast Buck Freddy
6- Newport Bridge
5- Leftembehind
Flying in Style is an unknown firster for Charlton Baker, but that’s the game we’re playing here. There are small hints pointing to some ability though, as he has routinely beat stablemate Spoofy in the mornings and gets Joel Rosario to ride. Fast Buck Freddy is sure to get some attention with Irad Ortiz aboard on debut for Jorge Abreu, but this doesn’t feel like such a sure thing. The price has to be right but it probably won’t be. Newport Bridge is probably the best contender with experience in the field, though that 66 BSF off the turf in May deserves skepticism. The main draw here is trainer Linda Rice turning to Jose Ortiz for the mount. Leftembehind is… around. Let’s throw him in there.
Race 2
$95,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 1:22 p.m. ET
5- Winter Son
1/1A- Bold Journey/Sosua Summer
2- Elusive Edge
7- Famous Gent
Winter Son could have showed a little more in his return to turf last time out, but Irad Ortiz is a very inspiring addition for small-time trainer Marcelo Arenas. This gelding won a Saratoga allowance at 43-1 last year and could take another step forward. Bold Journey and Sosua Summer would not be 6-5 shots on their own in this race, but together, they do make a formidable pair. It’s worth noting, however, that the former has just one career turf start while the latter holds a 1-for-15 lifetime record. Elusive Edge has run competently in two starts off a long layoff and could improve after a subpar trip last time out behind fellow runner Bold Journey. Famous Gent managed to string a few races together at Gulfstream earlier this year, and the decision to move him up to Belmont after so much time in Florida is encouraging. I need to see a start at a sprint distance beyond five furlongs to trust him though.
Race 3
$75,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt
Post Time: 1:55 p.m. ET
6- Meteorite
5- Blue Plate Special
7- Battleoflexington
2- Refuah
I can’t say I’m pleased with this one. Meteorite is going to be a massive favorite after moving into Todd Pletcher’s barn after a respectable debut effort. Once nominated for the Triple Crown, it’s hard to see him taking any steps backward at this stage in his career. Blue Plate Special is the common man’s alternative to Pletcher’s blue-blooded favorite, as Rick Dutrow acquires this one off the claim and steps him back up to MSW competition. Horses have always had a habit of improving under Dutrow and this gelding’s last start was strong despite some gate trouble. Battleoflexington is getting back to the dirt, where he earned a 67 BSF in April, after a much less successful attempt on the turf last time out. He was clearly a step below other runners in his last dirt start but could improve with some more time on the track. Refuah has burned a lot of money in his 14-race career, earning eight second-place finishes at odds as low as 9-5. I guess you shouldn’t leave him out of your exactas, though the 40 BSF he earned last time out may raise some more concerning questions.
Race 4
Just A Game Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 Mile on the Widener Turf
Post Time: 2:28 p.m. ET
3- Spendarella
1- In Italian (GB)
5- Speak of the Devil (Fr)
4- Wakanaka (Ire)
In the face of an overwhelming favorite, let’s take the fool’s errand and try to beat her. Spendarella has shown spectacular ability at every stage of her career to this point, rattling off four wins at five starts at three and finishing second in the G1 Coronation Cup at Ascot last June. Her four-year-old debut probably should have been a win at 4-5 odds, but a runner-up showing behind Fluffy Socks is nothing to be ashamed of either. The most interesting angle for her is that she hasn’t managed to get two starts in a row without a layoff in some time, and Graham Motion does spectacularly well preparing horses in this manner. She’ll be near the front early and could give me my best shot, hopefully at odds a little higher than 2-1. In Italian (GB) doesn’t need my justifications as the runner-up in last year’s BC Filly & Mare Turf. She’s been practically unstoppable as of late and will deserve absurd favoritism here. Speak of the Devil (Fr) is Chad Brown’s other runner in this field and hasn’t managed to put all the pieces together in recent starts, though she’s seems to be rounding back into form at the right time. Wakanaka (Ire) has come very close to breaking through the G1 level in the past but has always proven to be a step below the very best. The trip could be right for her with the top pair both going to the lead, but she would have to improve to capitalize for a win.
Race 5
$50,000 Starter Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt
Post Time: 3:02 p.m. ET
8- Endowed
5- Ice Road
3- Long Term
4- Fromanothamutha
I must have an ROI under $0.50 in these dirt allowance races, so please take me as seriously as you’d like. Endowed was a nightmarishly bad money burner last year for Christophe Clement, losing six straight starts at odds under 3-1. That being said, his last win came fresh off a November-to-June layoff with Irad Ortiz aboard. Let’s ride this carousel one more time. Ice Road could have run in a much softer spot last weekend at Belmont but trainer Jose D’Angelo scratched him in favor of this field. His only two dirt starts recently were against way, way stronger fields and he didn’t even run that badly. This is a very reasonable spot and Luis Saez takes the mount. Long Term is sure to take some money with the back-to-back 80 BSFs and Todd Pletcher sending him out to the track. The problem is that he seems unlikely to take a step forward coming off a maiden claiming win and unimproved performance at this level. Fromanothamutha has a little trouble finding the winner’s circle but has sharpened into form in recent starts, putting him squarely in the mix here. Joel Rosario stays after guiding this gelding to a runner-up finish at this level last time out.
Race 6
$62,000 Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 3:35 p.m. ET
5- Dream Shake
10- High Connection
7- Listentoyourheart
1- Cazadero (SCRATCHED)
Dream Shake charmed me immediately with a stellar maiden win and hasn’t done much of note since. Wonderful. This is a new version of the horse though, one that is coming off a long layoff as a first-time gelding with new trainer Michael Stidham preparing him. His potential always felt sky high, so I’m willing to take a chance on him in his long-awaited return. High Connection deserves a little more respect than he’s currently getting on the morning line, as he looked very solid for Bob Baffert at certain points last season before tailing off later on. New trainer Todd Pletcher is cutting him back to a sprint distance as either a freshening prep or a more honest move to what he considers to be a better distance for the colt. Bettors will likely be compensated fairly for taking a chance on him. Listentoyourheart has earned back-to-back 100 BSFs and deserves respect as a contender here. The only knock on him is that those performances came on speed-favoring racetracks and he got away with very moderate fractions on both days. Cazadero is another runner that may be overlooked, but his recent (and honest) efforts in turf sprints shouldn’t distract bettors from his solid form on dirt at three. He’s never fired off layoffs particularly well, but he can still compete in this field if he can take a step forward after a year on the grass.
Race 7
$80,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf
Post Time: 4:08 p.m. ET
5- Be the Boss
11- Ortus
7- Dr. Settle’s Dream
2- Conman
Be the Boss doesn’t seem like a turf horse on paper with three winless attempts earlier in his career. But Michael Maker seems convinced that it’s his preferred surface, even after he won a starter allowance that got rained off the turf with an 82 BSF back in May. I’m willing to trust the trainer in this case and take a chance. Ortus has obvious upside as the favorite in this race, as he appears to be the stereotypically precocious Christophe Clement runner with Joel Rosario aboard. He’ll be in the mix, though the connections will likely drive his price down. Dr. Settle’s Dream is the sneaky contender in this field, as Bill Mott clearly had some hope in him as a juvenile last season when he entered him in the Central Park at Aqueduct. He’s been on the shelf since, but Mott seems to do well with horses developing from two to three. He has a chance at a price. Conman has lived up to his name in his last two starts, hanging like a chandelier as a heavy favorite on both occasions. Bettors are obligated to try and beat him.
Race 8
New York Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 4:41 p.m. ET
7- War Like Goddess
8- With The Moonlight (Ire) (SCRATCHED)
6- McKulick (GB)
5- Virginia Joy (Ger)
1- Flirting Bridge (Ire)
There are so many options to take underneath, but even in this stacked field, there’s really only one option on top. War Like Goddess has been nothing short of perfect for the past two years and there’s absolutely no reason to go against her now. Can’t wait to see her again. With The Moonlight (Ire) isn’t the best runner Charles Appleby has brought over from Europe, but that bar is incredibly high considering his immense success here. This filly is getting back to what seems to be her preferred distance and should take a step forward against older horses. McKulick is another one stretching out to a more comfortable distance, and the price on this Chad Brown runner should be good because of her poor showing in the G3 Modesty. I expect her to run back to and improve on her three-year-old form at longer distances, when she defeated With The Moonlight in the G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational. Irad Ortiz gets his pick of Brown runners and landed on this one. Virginia Joy (Ger) has been War Like Goddess’ foe in the past and even got the better of her in the G2 Flower Bowl last year. Her best days might be behind her but she’s proven at the distance. Bettors can enjoy a bonus long shot pick for this race as well, as I feel a little partial to Flirting Bridge (Ire). I don’t expect a win, but her last race at Keeneland was obviously a warmup off the layoff and she nearly won the G1 E.P. Taylor last year at this distance. 20-1 feels a little high, right? No? Get out of here with my long shot picks? Don’t sass me.
Race 9
Acorn Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:14 p.m. ET
5- Munnys Gold
6- Pretty Mischievous
1- Dorth Vader
2- Randomized
Munnys Gold might have been the vanquished favorite last time out in the G2 Eight Belles, but it’s really hard to watch that race and imagine her losing again. Dueling from the outside, she seemed to tire when Red Carpet Ready blew past her at the top of the stretch. Still, she found enough to gather herself and re-rally, falling short by a head. I would love to see her try to win from off the pace in this one. Pretty Mischievous is the G1 Kentucky Oaks winner and deserves all the respect in the world as a contender here. In fact, her presence alongside Munnys Gold should ensure fair prices for both of them. With plenty of speed in the race, the trip should be right for this closer as well. She’ll have a chance. Dorth Vader ran well in the G1 Kentucky Oaks even as the track played against her in a crowded field. It’s encouraging that she still took a step forward under those conditions, making her a candidate for further improvement this time around. Trainer George Weaver feels like a small upgrade as well. Randomized is one of three Chad Brown runners taking a shot in this race, and it’s always scary when he empties the barn to win a race. That being said, I like to think that his trio is simply outclassed by others in the field, though I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them improves to win.
Race 10
Belmont Gold Cup (G2) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 2 Miles on the Widener Turf
Post Time: 5:47 p.m. ET
2- Siskany (GB)
11- High Definition (Ire)
7- Amazing Grace (Ger)
4- Tide of the Sea
This is a mystifying race and I love it. Siskany (GB) clearly separates himself from the rest of the pack as the only horse seemingly preparing for this distance. Most of these runners are either hurdlers switching to flat racing or long-distance American runners stretching out to a marathon. But Charles Appleby seems to truly have his gelding in top form at two miles, making him an obvious favorite. High Definition (Ire) was a high-profile loser in Europe before switching to hurdles for trainer Joseph O’Brien. The younger O’Brien fields some live runners in the U.S., however, and the timing of his trip overseas demonstrates hope in the horse’s potential. Amazing Grace (Ger) doesn’t seem perfectly suited to two miles, but she seems like a prime candidate to deliver a sharp performance. After a very nice win in the G3 Orchid in her stateside debut, she ran into a very tough pace scenario and failed to make up any ground in the G2 Sheepshead Bay. They’ll all be crawling home in this one, so she has as much a chance as any of the boys. Tide of the Sea probably isn’t a serious win candidate, but I thought I would point him out because I have a suspicion that he might try something crazy. Katie Davis tried and nearly succeeded with a bold front-running strategy with him in the G2 Fort Marcy, and the only way he can win this one is through a similar plan to steal it.
Race 11
Intercontinental Stakes (G3) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 6:19 p.m. ET
5- Bay Storm
7- Bubble Rock
6- Amy C (GB)
1- Poppy Flower
Bay Storm has suffered a lot of tough defeats in recent starts, suggesting that she still might not fully understand the game she’s playing. Her last race at Churchill Downs was very solid, however, and even more importantly, she’s finally getting back to Belmont, where she has earned three of her four career wins. Jonathan Thomas doesn’t waste much time in New York these days, so the ones he decides to ship can be trusted. Bubble Rock earned respect for his win in the License Fee last time out, but he didn’t win convincingly enough to make him a standout in this field. He’ll be a short price in a race that probably deserves a little more creativity than I’m conjuring at the moment. Amy C (GB) makes her return to New York after winning all three of her turf sprint attempts in California for trainer Phil D’Amato. Shipping her across the country is a bold move, but her familiarity with the Belmont turf from her Chad Brown days should alleviate surface concerns. Poppy Flower nearly did enough to get past Bubble Rock in the License Fee last time out, and there’s nothing suggesting that she can’t be involved at the wire again this time around.