Who needs the Breeders’ Cup when you can just make your own every year? Between the conclusion of the Triple Crown, new challenges for older horses and some of the best races of the year on American turf, the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival offers more than nearly any other event in the sport.
In addition to the countless quality horses competing on the track this afternoon, it feels immensely gratifying to have so many people to share this weekend with. As we speak, my family is setting up a small picnic in the backyard to watch the day of races. My friends going to the event itself have all asked me for links to purchase the Daily Racing Form.
An obscene number of guests have made Belmont Stakes picks which will be compiled in an article to be published at a later date. All eyes in my immediate vicinity seem locked in on my favorite place in the world, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. What better place to start than Race 1?
Belmont, Race 1
$90,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 11:20 a.m. ET
5- Accept the Outcome (IRE)
9- Love to Shop
3- Roman Goddess
12- Advance Attack
Accept the Outcome (IRE) took a nice step forward for Chad Brown in her second start at Aqueduct last time out, and the fact that she wasn’t favored that day suggests that the field was somewhat lively. Irad Ortiz could’ve taken a mount on the morning line favorite but lands on this one instead. Love to Shop still deserves respect after losing Ortiz to the Brown runner, as her performance at Belmont last time out was by far the strongest in this field. She can win easily with another step forward and might be good enough anyway. Roman Goddess earned an excuse last time out at Aqueduct when she stumbled out of the gate and virtually lost all chance. Michael Maker has decided to ease her into her second start of the year and Flavien Prat takes the mount at a price. Advance Attack is a firster for Todd Pletcher and I tend to trust that guy. It’s not always rocket science.
Race 2
$80,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf
Post Time: 11:54 a.m. ET
2- Solib
4- Weekend Rags
1- I’mhavingamoment
5- U Should B Dancing
Solib has struggled for most of her life bouncing between trainers, but her debut for Michael Maker last time out was a revelation. It’s hard to assess quality between statebreds and open company at these levels, but she easily handled that starter allowance field with an 83 BSF and seems to be in a great position to move forward again. Weekend Rags shouldn’t be the morning line favorite in this field, but there is obvious upside because she might end up being the lone speed. She managed to transition well from dirt to turf at Aqueduct last time out and Jorge Abreu leaves Frankie Pennington behind in favor of Irad Ortiz this time around. I wouldn’t be surprised. I’mhavingamoment has gone winless in four straight starts since breaking her maiden on debut, but she hasn’t run worse than fourth either and continues to improve. The switch to turf last time out was positive and John Velasquez returns for a rare collaboration with Bill Mott. U Should B Dancing gets Jose Ortiz back after a rough patch to begin 2023. Though she hasn’t yet run back to the 74 BSF she earned way back in July 2022, she hasn’t acted out of character either. The only problem for the deep closer this time around could be the pace setup.
Race 3
True North Stakes (G2) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 12:29 p.m. ET
4- Elite Power
5- Strobe
1- Today’s Flavor
3- Anarchist
Elite Power is arguably the best pound-for-pound runner in the country at the moment with six straight victories since June 2022. His closest call in that stretch was a commanding 1 ¼-length victory in the BC Sprint ahead of C Z Rocket and Jackie’s Warrior. If he can fire fresh off the layoff, there shouldn’t be any issues here. Strobe isn’t quite where he needs to be to truly be a contender with Elite Power on his best day, but he’s the most likely to take advantage if the favorite regresses. His graded stakes debut for Brad Cox last time out was solid, as the 100 BSF frankly means more than the runner-up finish to an extent. He only needs a small step forward to challenge. Today’s Flavor has been having a blast at the lower levels in New York, winning five of his last six starts in dominant fashion. Four of those wins came under statebred conditions and he clearly needs to improve to challenge the favorite, but he’s firmly in the mix for exotics. Anarchist is continuing a national tour of sorts, coming from Keeneland earlier this month after racing at Woodbine and Santa Anita earlier this year. He earned his first graded stakes win on the synthetic in Canada last time out, breaking up a streak of four runner-up finishes on the West coast. He’s in with a shot at a minor prize.
Race 4
$95,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 1:06 p.m. ET
7- Life Changer
1- American Law
10- Luni Sima
8- Asmodeus
This race is a nightmare and I don’t like it. Life Changer has clearly lost a step in recent months as he struggles to string two races in a row together, going on three separate layoffs since November 2022. There are reasons to expect improvement, however, as trainer John Terranova recruits Joel Rosario to ride in the horse’s long-awaited return to Belmont. Terranova and Rosario work spectacularly well together and this particular trainee has two wins in five starts at this track. American Law was the victim of a heavily biased track in his last start, causing him to wilt in the stretch after chasing a pair of front runners out of the starting gate. The fact that he delivered a career-best performance under the circumstances is impressive, though he still only has one win in 13 career starts. Luni Sima shortens up to a more appropriate sprint distance after a poor showing on an off track in May. This colt has thrown in clunkers in the past and recovered well in subsequent starts, and his last race at a sprint distance was very productive. Asmodeus is cutting back to a sprint distance after a poor effort in the G3 Peter Pan, but he has back form to suggest that he can bounce back in the right spot. Dylan Davis jumps back in the saddle after guiding this colt to his maiden win at Aqueduct back in March.
Race 5
Poker Stakes (G3) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Widener Turf
Post Time: 1:44 p.m. ET
1- Chez Pierre (Fr)
2- Emaraaty (GB)
6- Emmanuel
7- Filo Di Arianna (Brz)
Chez Pierre (Fr) defeated Modern Games in the G1 Makers Mark Mile last time out. That is all. Emaraaty (GB) is a bit of a puzzling addition to this field, as he delivered a very nice win in the G3 Baruch in September 2022 before heading to the shelf for the rest of the year. If he can carry that form into his 2023 debut, the eight-year-old trained by Chad Brown could make a little noise here. Emmanuel beat Chez Pierre in the G3 Canadian Turf back in March but his foe returned the favor and then some next time out at Keeneland. This colt seems to have hit a very hard ceiling for the moment, one that may limit him against the very best runners in this field. Filo Di Arianna (Brz) has been most effective at Woodbine since moving from his home country in 2019. His last try at Belmont was a disaster but he seems to have improved since and could make a better showing this time around.
Race 6
Brooklyn Stakes (G2) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 2:22 p.m. ET
5- Next
7- Warrant
8- Lone Rock (SCRATCHED)
4- Bright Future
Tricky race here. Next has some rather humble connections, but he can win this race if he runs back to the 105 BSF he earned at Keeneland last November. His five-year-old debut last month was troublesome but he’s never fired fresh before and can improve in his second start off the layoff. Warrant beat Next last time out in an ungraded stakes at Churchill Downs, which could be enough to make him the favorite here. Brad Cox has played around with the idea of running him at longer distances but seems fully committed now. He’s hard to leave out. Lone Rock may be over the hill at this point, as he hasn’t won a race since last May. That being said, he still matches up to this field of horses if bettors are willing to excuse his last start at Churchill. Bright Future will certainly attract a lot of attention with Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz joining forces, but the colt has never run further than a mile and will have to deal with a very salty group of runners in his graded stakes debut.
Race 7
Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 3:02 p.m. ET
2- Search Results
6- Clairiere
4- Secret Oath
5- Played Hard
You could throw a blanket over the top three, who have raced each other countless times now with inconclusive results. Search Results gets the nod despite finishing third in the G1 La Troienne, which she ran in off a six-month layoff. If she got within a length of a pair in this field on that attempt, another month of training could put her over the top. Clairiere overcame a setback last August to nearly take the BC Distaff in a thrilling photo finish. Though she got the short end of that exchange, she returned strong in 2023, finishing flatly behind Secret Oath before improving to beat her in the G1 Apple Blossom next time out. She’s a dependable type. Secret Oath always seems to be on the cusp of hitting the next level, but 2023 has proven just as frustrating for the filly as 2022. After taking the G2 Azeri in March, she has since lost two straight photo finishes in G1 competition to different opponents. Played Hard was one of those opponents but still needs to take a step forward to truly qualify as a contender at this level.
Race 8
Woody Stephens Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 3:42 p.m. ET
8- Fort Bragg (SCRATCHED)
4- General Jim
3- Arabian Lion
13- Drew’s Gold
Fort Bragg might seem like an odd pick based on his runner-up finish in the G2 Pat Day Mile, but I get the sense that he ran the better race of the top pair and could get another boost re-entering Bob Baffert’s barn. He’s been racing at distances way outside his comfort zone but seven furlongs might be perfect. General Jim improved dramatically off the layoff last time out to win the G2 Pat Day Mile, and there’s little doubt that he can handle seven furlongs after winning the G3 Swale earlier this year. Arabian Lion took the Sir Barton in a virtual walkover at Pimlico last time out, and while I don’t know how well that race prepares him for this one, the 103 BSF he earned makes him a contender by necessity. Drew’s Gold is a very tempting play at a price based on his win in the Gold Fever at Belmont last time out. That 98 BSF puts him squarely on the level with these far classier contenders, but the far outside post could be a killer.
Race 9
Jaipur Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Widener Turf
Post Time: 4:19 p.m. ET
11- Casa Creed
12- Caravel
8- Arrest Me Red
2- Go Bears Go (Ire)
Casa Creed is frankly a must-play at Belmont after winning this race in two straight years with overwhelmingly high speed figures compared to the rest of his form. At most tracks, the horse is still an extremely tough turfer, but he simply manages to find an extra gear on the grass in New York. He has managed to fire off layoffs in the past and made a strong showing in Saudi Arabia last time out, suggesting he still has some pep in his step at seven years old. Caravel remains a deserving favorite as the reigning BC Turf Sprint champion. Though she has not run back to the shocking 107 BSF she earned at 42-1 that day, she has won both of her starts in 2023, including the G2 Shakertown in another effort against the boys. Arrest Me Red is another runner that simply seems to love the Belmont turf, though his recent form elsewhere does leave something to be desired. He hasn’t won a race since last May, but at least the last effort at Churchill can be excused for a troublesome trip. Getting back on this turf track could give him a chance to straighten things out. Go Bears Go (Ire) has made a full transition to racing stateside after making two successive trips to the Breeders’ Cup from Europe. Now in Wesley Ward’s barn, he took a nice step forward in his 2023 debut at Churchill Downs and could continue to round into form as the season progresses.
Race 10
Metropolitan Handicap (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:04 p.m. ET
1- Cody’s Wish
5- Charge It
6- Zandon
3- Dr. Schivel
Cody’s Wish has been unstoppable for more than a year now, racking up five straight victories with triple-digit speed figures. A win over Jackie’s Warrior last year alone makes him an overwhelming favorite in any event going forward, but his win in the BC Dirt Mile makes him inescapable. Charge It hasn’t looked great in awhile, admittedly, but I think he’s a candidate to improve getting back to the one-turn mile at Belmont. In the G3 Dwyer last July, he exploded to win by 23 lengths with a 111 BSF. It might be exactly what he needs. Zandon is a really cool horse that simply hasn’t lived up to expectations. Once thought to be one of the next great classic-distance horses, he’s struggled to break through to the point that Chad Brown has begun cutting him back in distance. That hasn’t worked either though, so while a minor prize is possible, a win seems less likely. Dr. Schivel is a sprinter through and through with just one start in the past year, but it was a very encouraging prep and I trust him to get a few extra furlongs for a minor prize.
Race 11
Manhattan Stakes (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 5:54 p.m. ET
4- Ottoman Fleet (GB)
8- Up to the Mark
3- Warren Point (GB)
5- Soldier Rising (GB)
Ottoman Fleet (GB) looked very impressive winning the G2 Fort Marcy in his stateside debut, kicking clear of several legitimate, albeit weaker, rivals. It was a very good prep for this race and the price should be fair on the Appleby runner. Up to the Mark improved significantly to take the G1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs last time out, but his performance in the G1 Makers Mark Mile provided a hint. Finishing third behind Chez Pierre and Modern Games was more of a statement than some people may have recognized, as he won next time out at 5-2. It’s unlikely that he goes that high again, even while facing a pair of Appleby invaders. Warren Point (GB) struggled mightily in the G1 Man o’War in his first race in the U.S., which could have been a result of asking too much of him off a layoff. Appleby is keeping him over here and is actually shipping in one of his old jockeys. Soldier Rising (GB) isn’t necessarily a win candidate in my mind, but his performance in the G1 Man o’ War might be a sign that he’s rounding back into form. He’s been good enough to win this race in the past and Christophe Clement has been ambitious in trying to prepare him for this level.
Race 12
Belmont Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ½ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 7:02 p.m. ET
For full-race analysis of the 2023 Belmont Stakes, click here.
Race 13
$80,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 7:47 p.m. ET
1- Spirit of St Louis
9- Curly Larry and Mo
2- Let’s Go Big Blue
5- Sell Something
Spirit of St Louis only has two career starts and both were on dirt, which could make him a poor favorite. But no one is more trustworthy switching surfaces than Chad Brown, and the fact that he’s making this move with a horse that did so well on dirt before should be enough justification. He’s the pick. Curly Larry and Mo is a bit of an outsider that’s been racing way outside his league for some time now. This is a more comfortable spot and I like that Reylu Gutierrez is returning to ride. Let’s Go Big Blue is another one that raced over his head, though he did so as a two-year-old and hasn’t been seen since. Improvement from two to three is likely and this is a much more comfortable spot for the three-year-old. Sell Something went from a plodder to a pretty sharp horse in recent months for trainer Gary Sciacca. His most recent starts on turf have been strong enough to make him a contender here, and Sciacca only recruits Joel Rosario to ride when he thinks he has a live one.