Belmont Analysis: Thursday, June 3, 2021

I hear the rain on my bedroom window this morning and I hope it ceases some time soon. The temporary return of Paddy’s Picks at Belmont will likely be hampered by some moisture in the track this afternoon, but similar conditions didn’t hurt me last weekend.

On Saturday, May 29, my father and I went to Belmont for the second time since 2019 to watch Power Up Paynter. As 0.1% shareholders in the horse’s interests through the MyRaceHorse service, we signed up for a lottery that allowed us box seats for the day and paddock access for the sixth race. There was slight confusion about this lottery at first, as my mother expressed little interest in raising a dog when the “P.U.P. lottery” came up in family group chats.

In the end, my cousin, another shareholder in the horse, won the tickets but couldn’t attend, leading to a mad dash to get them transferred over to me and my father. My day Saturday began in a New York City apartment where I had spent a long Friday night with friends, but in a telling sign of what motivates me in life, I was out of bed at 9 and on the L.I.R.R. by 9:45.

My cousin and father played phone tag for most of the morning and eventually worked out a plan. I was supposed to be my cousin’s husband according to their devious machinations, a role I feebly accepted on short rest. I just wanted to go to the track. In hindsight, I don’t know why I couldn’t have been my cousin’s brother, but I guess that wasn’t as humorous to them. If anyone asked, my wife was sick and my father was attending in her stead. Whatever.

On arrival, we appeared to all the world as the greenest owners to ever grace the Belmont clubhouse. The parking went seamlessly, but we used the wrong entrance and a Belmont staffer would have led us right into the jockey’s room if we had let her wander any further.

We eventually returned to where we started, found the owner’s entrance and set off to find our box seats. This was also surprisingly difficult, considering we had been in box seats before to see P.U.P. But we accidentally ended up on the third floor instead of the second, which led us straight to Anthony Stabile, who was wrapping up another edition of “Talking Horses.” He was friendly in a coarse way, like someone who gets too much unwanted attention doing the thing he loves. He gave us a tip on South Bend in the Blame Stakes at Churchill, and I tailed him like the tourist I am. He must have been mighty frustrated when his pick got fouled in the stretch and wound up fifth. If not for a savior a few minutes before the race, I would have been too.

As soon as we sat down for a beautiful day of racing in our luxuriously desolate box seats, I realized that it was freezing. I could have rolled down the sleeves on my flannel, but it wouldn’t have looked as good and I can’t really afford to make many sacrifices. It was a Belmont day, though, and I was willing to sit through anything.

At 3:05, we headed down to the paddock to watch P.U.P. warm up for the sixth race. My father, the same one who had enthusiastically signed me up for a shotgun marriage a few hours earlier, got a big kick out of taking photos of me as I tried to watch the horses. I looked cold in every single one of them. Linda Rice came out to talk to the rubes about the horse. I knew I couldn’t ask her about her pending ban, so instead I turned around and continued to study the horses. 

P.U.P. had clearly grown as a four-year-old, but my attention on our horse was waning as another runner caught my eye. Wow Brown looked ready to run through a brick wall. He had one of the bushiest coats I’ve ever seen, and while I didn’t know enough to glean any meaning from that information, I knew what a horse looked like when he was prepared. I had hesitantly crossed him out in the Form because of subpar connections but quickly changed my mind. As the group walked out to the track to watch P.U.P. run, I put a $2 flyer on Wow Brown on my phone.

It was a shame that I had to match the muted disappointment of my fellow owners in the winner’s circle when Wow Brown came home to win at 28-1 odds. P.U.P. never got close, which was a real downer on one of the better wagers of my handicapping career. My teeth were chattering by that point, but it’s hard to leave on that note, isn’t it?

There’s no real point to this story, except to introduce the temporary return of Paddy’s Picks for Belmont Stakes week. I’ve gone back and forth on publishing this because of the inclement weather, but the handicapping has been done for some time now, so I might as well. Hopefully the track dries by Saturday, but for now, the die hard fans among us can try to navigate some tricky track conditions on the quest to kill some time. Perhaps my story from last weekend can speak to some of the potential rewards of this persistence. Let’s take a look at the first.

Race 1

$25,000 Claiming for NY-Breds Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

4- Steam Engine

3- Dark Money

2- Big Mountain

8- Seven Lilies

Note: On the off-chance that the sun shines on a fast Belmont track Thursday, I would throw the 5, Runaway Lute, into the mix, and was even considering him on top. His form on wet tracks in the past, however, leaves something to be desired.

This race figures to be controlled by two horses dropping down in class for the right reasons. Steam Engine and Dark Money have been competing at the statebred optional claiming level and should get some relief against this softer field. The pair have faced off in their last two races, and as was the case both times, the result here will likely be decided by Dark Money’s ability to run down Steam Engine on the front end. I’m wagering against that prospect on a wet track, as the Karl Broberg trainee should manage to have things his way here. Big Mountain is at the right distance and level here, and Joel Rosario is a very interesting addition for trainer Michael Miceli. That being said, most of his best trips have come after getting an early lead, and that may be a tall order this time around. Seven Lilies is another runner dropping in class, but he’s also trending in the wrong direction. If I was one to speculate blindly, I would say that trainer Robert Klesaris was making a mistake entering this runner for $25,000 instead of giving him a layoff and bringing him back in the summer.

Race 2

$90,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf

On Turf:

7- Six Feet Apart

1- Isle of White (Fr)

8- Quick Conversation

3- Gailhorsewind

This isn’t the sort of race I would play by choice because there’s plenty of promising talent and not quite enough to go on. Six Feet Apart doesn’t stand out from the other contenders based on his first start, but he does gain an edge through his connections. The combination of Wesley Ward and John Velasquez has been lethal at the Belmont meet this year, and the filly possesses significant competing speed that should help her. I’m taking a shot in the dark on Isle of White (Fr) in the hopes that Chad Brown knows something I don’t about her form in Europe last year. Quick Conversation and Gailhorsewind ran against one another last time out and I have no indication of how they’ll improve in their second starts.

On Dirt:

11- Steal My Sunshine (SCR)

12- Ms Penelopepitstop (SCR)

10- Before You

6- Commandandcontrol

Update: The 11, Steal My Sunshine, and 12, Ms Penelopepitstop, have been scratched.

This race becomes far less competitive if the rain forces runners off the turf, but Wesley Ward may have the answer regardless. Steal My Sunshine has run well enough on the dirt to topple these runners and should make it into the field off the also eligible list following a lot of scratches. Ms Penelopepitstop is a first time starter that Rudy Rodriguez is pointing to the dirt anyway, which gives him a massive advantage against runners aiming for the turf. Before You and Commandandcontrol have run on the dirt before, which may just be enough.

Race 3

$92,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

3- Following Sea

1- Wudda U Think Now

6- Reinvestment Risk

4- Life Changer

I really like these allowance races for three-year-olds, as they often feature stakes-quality runners before they take on deeper waters. Following Sea demonstrated devastating early speed in his second start at Oaklawn Park, in which he dusted a talented maiden field with a 97 BSF. I suspect that “Previously trained by Bob Baffert” is going to become a very popular tagline for talented West Coast shippers going forward, and getting this runner into Todd Pletcher’s hands is a very interesting development. The colt has a ton of talent, but he isn’t alone here. Wudda U Think Now seems to be coming into his own as a sprinter for Rudy Rodriguez and has a significant experience  edge over the rest of the field. Stepping into open company can be difficult for some horses, but he has run well enough to earn the chance. Reinvestment Risk was a very early Kentucky Derby contender last year when he entered the BC Juvenile as the second betting choice, but something clearly went wrong in that big spot and Chad Brown put him on the shelf. Any improvement as a 3YO could lead to a crushing victory for the once-promising colt here, but he’ll have to deal with a lot of sharp talent in his first race since November.

Race 4

$75,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf

On Turf:

4- King Angelo

10- Sheriff Bianco

8- Fast Gordon

3- Majestic Tiger

I have very little to dislike about the two favorites here, but I think the loser in the pair’s last exchange was actually the more talented runner. When King Angelo and Sheriff Bianco last squared off, K.A. dueled three wide with S.B. on the rail and remained game to the wire. Both were overtaken late but finished on even terms for place, and in this race, King Angelo will get the inside post. Wesley Ward is unconscious right now at Belmont, which makes it difficult to go against him with a Philip Serpe trainee, but the horses tell the tale in the end. Fast Gordon and Majestic Tiger could pick up the pieces, but I’m not sure they’re coming out of strong races.

On Dirt:

6- Nemo’s Fortune

4- King Angelo

10- Sherriff Bianco

11- Oliver’s Fortune

Don’t bet this race on the dirt. I see your hand hovering over the button, but you have to stay strong. You can skip one. It’s a long week of racing; we can’t throw it all away on low-level New York turfers in the slop. Come on now. If you have a multi-race bet going, I’m picking the runners that have run relatively quickly on dirt before and tossing the MTOs.

Race 5

$90,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

5- American Parade

2- After the Party

1- Lady Valentine

6- Equal Pay

I’m a little lost here. Sometimes Shug McGaughey has a live firster, and American Parade might just fit the bill as a $975,000 purchase. After the Party ran well enough in her first race and could improve in her second start. Lady Valentine and Equal Pay are debuting for Pletcher and Brown, which makes them just as likely. Have fun folks.

Race 6

Intercontinental Stakes (G3) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf

On Turf:

2- Sweet Bye and Bye (SCR)

8- Regal Glory (SCR)

4- Change of Control

1- Publication

Update: The 2, Sweet Bye and Bye, and 8, Regal Glory, have been scratched.

In graded stakes races on the turf, even I have to depend on class handicapping a little, especially in races like this. The field for the G3 Intercontinental is full of talent grass runners that haven’t quite broken through in graded stakes races — with one exception. Unfortunately, Regal Glory deserves favoritism as the classiest runner, and has delivered consistently for more than two years now. I won’t be surprised when she makes it three in a row, but I will take a small chance against her. In a paceless race, Sweet Bye and Bye has been sharp and could manage to kick away from her adversary on a softer turf. Change of Control has been on her game as of late, but I think the distance and Belmont turf are both going against her. It wouldn’t affect her in an allowance race, but she’ll need her best to win here. Publication will have to significantly improve to have a chance here, but I think she has a sneaky chance to do some running for Chad Brown. 

On Dirt:

9- Aunt Kat

6- Piedi Bianchi

3- Subsidiary

2- Sweet Bye and Bye (SCR)

There’s nothing worse than a graded stakes race taken off the turf. The wasted potential! In this case, Aunt Kat is by far the strongest competitor. Single her in multi-race bets and move on.

Race 7

Astoria Stakes for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

4- Happy Soul

2- Mainstay (SCR)

6- American Bound

Update: The 2, Mainstay, has been scratched.

Am I being chalky or can we blame the horses? I’m trying to find value for my readers here, but there are a lot of talented favorites on this card. Happy Soul is one of two runners in this race to have broken her maiden, and she did it fashionably, pulling away to win by nearly 12 lengths with an 81 BSF. She’s the one to beat. Mainstay is a first time starter for Robert Reid, and while firsters do occasionally win this race, she has a tough foe. American Bound has some seasoning but doesn’t seem strong enough.

Race 8

Wonder Again Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/8 Miles on the Inner Turf

For Turf:

6- Gift List (GB)

10- Plum Ali

5- Jouster

2- Con Lima

Four evenly matched contenders figure to vie for the top spot in this very competitive stakes race. In her last start, Jouster used significant early speed to earn her first graded stakes victory over fellow runner Gift List (GB). She won that race at a mile, however, and since then, Gift List (GB) has come back with a stellar performance in the G2 Edgewood, her second start stateside. I think that the added distance, combined with the presence of Con Lima to the inside, will set up a more favorable pace scenario for Gift List this time around, and I would feel fairly confident wagering on the prospect. Plum Ali should not be counted out entirely, however, as the added distance will likely help her as well. She only finished a half length behind Gift List in the G2 Appalachian and will likely improve in her second start of 2021 after a promising 2YO season.

For Dirt: 

2- Con Lima

4- Alwayz Late

5- Jouster

This race becomes a total disaster if it gets rained off the turf. Unbettable.

Race 9

$90,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 Mile on the Widener Turf

For Turf:

10- Bleecker Street (SCR)

2- Split Then Double (GB)

3- Star Command

1A- Miss Bonnie T

Update: The 10, Bleecker Street, has been scratched.

This is the sort of race that gives Chad Brown the training title every year at Belmont. It’s not the graded stakes wins or the massive purses; it’s these maiden races where his lightly raced horses are invariably well prepared against overly seasoned runners. I’m putting Bleecker Street on top for the simple reason that I’ve seen Brown win with firsters against experienced fields in the past. Split Then Double (GB) is probably his more likely filly, having run as a 2YO in her only start on the turf. I expect both of them to run well. It’s a shame that Brown has two in here, because I actually see evidence pointing to some improvement for Star Command, who has been on the shelf since January after some solid performances up to that point. My one issue with her is that she has had a lot of chances at this level and hasn’t yet broken through. Miss Bonnie T fills out the top four, and John Velasquez’s presence with David Donk is encouraging considering that he could have ridden for Wesley Ward on the 6, Bitten by Kitten. 

On Dirt:

4-Thisladyis the Law

10- Bleecker Street

9- Meet the Beauty

3- Star Command

Thisladyis the Law has a 444 Tomlinson for the wet and George Weaver strikes with 53% of his new barn additions. That’s good enough for me. I like Bleecker Street either way, and there’s a decent chance that Chad Brown leaves her in to give her a trip around the track. Meet the Beauty has run twice on dirt and Star Command has a pedigree to suggest that she wouldn’t be completely useless on the surface.