Thursdays are typically a slow day at Belmont. However, there’s no such thing as a bad day at the track, and some wide open races followed by an exciting feature may attract bettors and sportsmen alike.
NOTE: THE NINTH RACE HAS NOT YET BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS ANALYSIS. THIS WILL BE UPDATED BY POST TIME.
Race 1
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Breds, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
This is a pretty routine maiden claiming race, and the hardest task for bettors is figuring out which horses will run well off of long layoffs. There are a few in here that should all settle between 9-5 and 4-1, and I took my best shot:
11- Graetz
Javier Castellano may not want to show up on a Thursday, so Luis Saez rides this Jimmy Bond trainee here as she drops into maiden claiming competition. Her last race on June 4 wasn’t great visually, but the speed figure is strong and the race didn’t set up well for her. Every horse in contention at the end was closing fast while the entire front running contingent collapsed in the stretch. That was her first race on her preferred surface and she may use it to take another step forward in her second start off of a five-month layoff.
1- Dream Chasing
This filly hasn’t raced since last November, but trainer Christophe Clement has been winning indiscriminately as of late. In three scheduled turf starts as a two-year-old, she only managed to race on the surface once, running fairly well to finish fifth in a statebred maiden special weight. She’s three now and takes a class drop to the maiden claiming level. This could be a good thing in the short term, as she has a solid chance of winning here. However, if she really improved significantly from two to three, I would have expected Clement to keep her in races where he couldn’t lose her. The addition of Manny Franco is also an odd wrinkle, as he succeeds with Clement but isn’t known as one of his more notable connections. She could win here, but my top selection simply has less questions to answer going in.
9- Plink Freud
Anyone betting on this filly in her last start in November must have been mighty frustrated. Racing against maiden claimers for the first time, she made a bold move on the turn and looked set to put the field away. Then… nothing. She was totally flat in the stretch and didn’t seem to have any interest in moving forward, finishing sixth within two lengths of the winner. This will be her first start at four and she stays at the maiden claiming level for Thomas Bush, who has found nothing but talented jockeys for her. Lezcano, Franco, Saez, Rosario and both Ortiz brothers have ridden her and haven’t managed to get her to the wire first. Jose Ortiz rides her again today, and she fits very well based on speed figures, but she’s really tough to take for the top spot.
3- Cemetery V I P
Occasionally a horse strikes me as a charming runner, and this is one such case. This Bruce Brown filly hasn’t proven she can run in a straight line yet, but it doesn’t appear to be from lack of effort. In her very first start last November, she broke dead last and gave five lengths to the rest of the field. In the stretch, she was all over the track but still closed fast to finish sixth behind fellow runner Dream Chasing. In her first start this year, she made up very little ground and was similarly unwieldy, but she was always running hard. Some day, this filly is going to put all the pieces together and shock a few people. It could happen in this one or it could happen three years from now at Penn National, but I hope I’m there for it.
Order: 11 1 9 3
The post position hurts a little, but in a one turn sprint, it shouldn’t matter too much. I think Graetz is the best prepared for this race, and I think she’ll manage to handle Dream Chasing in the stretch. Plink Freud always performs well but just didn’t seem all that interested in winning last year. Cemetery V I P is an honest runner with an upset chance.
Race 2
$16,000 Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This race is brutal. First off, there are eight or nine feasible runners with a chance. Second, every runner has a glaring issue. I tried to pick the least of all evils when forming my top four:
1- Mandatory Payout
The biggest knock on this gelding is that he hasn’t won in over a year, but in a race full of unanswered questions, that’s somehow not the worst thing. In his first start off the layoff, this Ryerson trainee did a little running from the back despite a race that was set up for front runners. He’s a pro that’s been racing at a slightly higher level than this, and in his second race off the layoff, he stands to improve to a point that he can compete well. Jose Ortiz also returns to ride.
5- Mental Model
This is one of those cases where asking a question only yields more questions. Having run in starter allowances on the dirt last year, why is this gelding in at such a low price today? Will a turf start off the layoff adequately prepare him here? Is Linda Rice’s cold streak over with her win last weekend or was it merely interrupted? With Jose Lezcano absent, was Luis Cardenas really the best jockey she could recruit? This was a very frustrating horse to analyze, so I’m placing him second out of spite.
7- Inside Info
I almost picked this one as my top selection until a doubt crept into my mind. This lightly raced Brad Cox gelding just broke his maiden against statebreds in impressive fashion, dueling on the outside and holding off late runners well in the stretch. Luis Saez has been enlisted to ride, a jockey that Cox works immensely well with. The recent workout, however, is what made me think. After some swift workouts entering his maiden breaking performance, his most recent work was pedestrian in comparison. I don’t necessarily subscribe to the “bounce” theory of handicapping, but after a tough race coming off a layoff, I do think this horse may need a start or two against winners before he rounds back into form.
10- Our Stormin Norman
This gelding hasn’t won a race since 2018. However, he also hasn’t finished outside of the top four since 2018. You see my plight.
Order: 1 5 7 10
I was stuck on this one for a long time. I long for the days when I could take one look at this race and immediately skip it. Mandatory Payout makes the most compelling case for improvement, while Mental Model and Inside Info make reasonable cases for regression. I’m taking a chance that the improvements and regressions are drastic enough to get Mandatory Payout his first win in over a year. Our Stormin Norman is a generational talent when it comes to losing well.
Race 3
$25,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Breds, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
I have no feel for this race at all, but I sure had a lot of fun trying to figure it out. I’ve concluded that no horse in this race is deserving of odds lower than 4-1, and I’ve figured out little else from there. In such a hard race to decipher, I can put on a professional facade, make shot-in-the-dark prognostications and try to sell them as informed opinions. But there are occasions in this pastime where you have to have some fun, as I did here:
10- Mariner Qui
This three-year-old gelding’s second start of the year was a significant improvement over his debut, in which he failed to get the lead and faded early. Earlier this month, he vied for the front early in a race that was setting up perfectly for closers. He and the rest of the leaders were overtaken in the stretch, but he held relatively well for seventh. That doesn’t sound great, but he outran his odds at 19-1. There’s no guarantee that this race sets up any better for him. However, there is a guarantee that Charlton Baker is preparing him well, and there’s a near-guarantee that Jose Ortiz gives him a good trip. I’ll take a shot here.
2- Imperio D
This colt ran well in his first start off the layoff to finish third at 74-1. When it comes to deciding between horses in this race, it may just come down to trainers, and there are very few scarier at this level of racing than Rudy Rodriguez. He’s excellent with horses in their second starts coming off this layoff, and Manny Franco comes back to ride. He’s one to consider in this wide open field.
4- Apex Predator
If this colt was trained by Charlton Baker or Rudy Rodriguez, he’d be my top selection. His last race was a regression over his form back at Aqueduct, but he still ran credibly to finish third. However, Mitchell Friedman and Dylan Davis don’t inspire as much confidence as other connections in this race, and that may just make the difference.
7- Carnegie Song
Wouldn’t it be smart if I used this spot to talk about the 8, Unbridled John? Yeah, we’re not doing that. Remember what I just said about the connections making a difference? Forget that too, it’s time for James Ryerson and Heman Harkie to make some noise. Now, in all seriousness, I’m only including this horse because he’ll likely be underbet. He’s the only horse coming out of a race against open company, and that performance was an improvement over his form before the layoff. In fact, his last start is even better than it appears. For a 132-1 shot, he seemed very interested entering the stretch before running into a wall of horses and steadying. He angled out and kept running, making up three spots in the process to finish sixth. That race heavily favored closers, but as such an unbettable long shot, that shouldn’t have made a difference. He would have to improve slightly to win here against statebreds, but not much.
Order: 10 2 4 7
As I’ve already said, I’ll accept defeat philosophically if it befalls me in this race. That being said, I believe I’ve found some interesting runners at a price to consider in a race with very evenly matched runners. Mariner Qui figures to lead or stalk, and her figures fit here. I had a very difficult time picking between Imperio D and Apex Predator for second position, but ultimately deferred to Rudy Rodriguez. Carnegie Song is a long shot that I believe may be an underlay, and chose him over more sensible horses because I spent too much time looking at him to leave him out.
Race 4
$40,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on the Widener Turf
This is a very odd race, one with very talented runners and a lot of unanswerable questions. This card has been punishing thus far, and this is yet another race that may trip up bettors. My top four:
4- Noble Thought
Why would Michael Maker ever take this horse off the turf? After running this seven-year-old gelding in graded stakes competition, he brought him to Gulfstream and tried him on the dirt. He tried to switch back to turf twice but both races were rained off. He finally brings him back here, in a much softer spot for a claiming tag. For a horse that finished fifth in the G1 Sword Dancer last year, this field shouldn’t be an issue, and Irad Ortiz returns to ride.
8- Siding Spring
Will she get worn down up front? This is the only runner in the field explicitly stepping up in class, but not by a significant amount. This one will also be returning to her preferred surface off the claim for Thomas Morley, who recruits Junior Alvarado, one of his favorite jockeys, to ride. This horse can compete here, but Abiding Star to his inside may pose a problem. The pace up front should be quick, and this gelding is quick enough to keep up with it. However, it may be more beneficial for him to stalk, much like he did in his last win back in September. Morley’s not great off the claim, but this one is still in with a reasonable chance.
2- Musical Heart
Does this horse have a preferred surface? This will be the third time in two years that this horse’s new trainer has tried turf with this gelding in their first start. The previous two attempts eventually resulted in a return to dirt, but perhaps Donk has found the right spot for him. The addition of Jose Ortiz is always welcome as well.
1- King Bubble (SCRATCHED)
Questions abound for this runner. The fact that Brittany Russell is a complete unknown in New York would normally be a big deal, but it’s a secondary issue with this seven-year-old from France that hasn’t raced in two years. The Belmont turf is also very hard right now and may not benefit a European runner. For what it’s worth, however, his last race in September 2018 was visually impressive, and Russell is clearly picking a spot carefully for this horse, even if it’s for a claiming tag. He’s certainly a wild card, but maybe he’s here for a reason.
Order: 4 8 2 1 (Note: The 1, King Bubble, has been scratched.)
This was a tough race, but if Noble Heart runs as expected, he’ll manage it well. Siding Spring and Musical Heart are very different horses in that one is a longtime New York turf claimer while the other is more versatile and well-traveled, but I have them competing for second here. King Bubble is a mystifying entry, and it makes me think he’s here to win.
Race 5
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Breds, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
This race features a rematch, a quest for redemption and a debutante in the maiden claiming game. That may be a little dramatic for such a ho-hum competition, but it’s a Thursday and I have to be enthusiastic. My top four:
11- Sandra’s Mine
I’m a little hesitant about taking this one on top as a ten-race maiden. However, she’s never been favored before and has encountered very stiff competition in statebred maiden special weights. She finally dropped down to the maiden claiming level in her last start of her three-year-old season, and fought bravely in between horses to finish second ahead of fellow runner Deja Rocante. Thomas Bush doesn’t always have his horses ready off of layoffs, but it’s a good sign that he managed to recruit Jose Ortiz to ride. She’ll likely be favored, and for good reason.
9- Deja Rocante
This filly is finally getting back to her preferred surface after nearly seven months training for the dirt. While Sandra’s Mine hasn’t raced since their meeting in November, Deja Rocante has run five times, most recently this month. However, none of those were on the turf, and Rudy Rodriguez finally makes the necessary change back to the grass. This is a surface switch he’s rather successful at, and he also works well with returning jockey Reylu Gutierrez. This one will try to get the lead and may have a say up front.
1- Saratoga Love
This is probably an unfortunate coincidence, but Christophe Clement is somehow 0-for-26 with horses in their second start off of a 180+ day layoff. Anyway, this filly is entering her second start off of a 180+ day layoff, and in her first start, she was somewhat disappointing. She performed worse at the maiden special weight level than she did as a two-year-old as has now been dropped in class. Rosario returns for a very successful turf trainer, but this isn’t exactly a soft field, and she’ll have to improve in order to win.
7- Quantitativbreezin
This is a poorly named filly that would benefit from a few more characters. Leave it to Brad Cox to make 15% look pedestrian, but for all of his talents, he’s a little less effective with first time starters and debuts at the maiden claiming level. Regardless, he recruits Luis Saez to ride, and if she’s ready, then this filly has the connections that can prepare her to make some noise on first asking.
Order: 11 9 1 7
Between the 9 and the 11, I thought that Sandra’s Mine ran the better race back in November, and made my decision on that basis. I think they’ll both give a good account of themselves though, and I have them in my top two. Saratoga Love has a little bit to prove, and at 3-1 on the morning line, I think there are better options. The poorly named Brad Cox firster fills out my top four.
Race 6
$56,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Non-Winners of One Race, 1 Mile on the Dirt
The result of this race is dependent on the condition of one runner coming off of a yearlong layoff. She’ll likely be the favorite, and it’s up to bettors to decide whether or not to take a shot against her, as I did:
4- Holmdel Park
This filly was running very well against tougher competition earlier this year, losing twice to talented New York filly Ice Princess. In her first start off the layoff for trainer James Ryerson, she improved again, albeit on the turf, at this level. She’s been training well recently and stands to take another step forward on the dirt.
3- Singular Sensation
If this filly repeats her performance from last August, she’s winning this race by ten lengths. Ratajkowski is an immensely talented filly and this one ran with her right to the wire under jockey Luis Saez. It was a brilliant performance that earned an eye popping 83 BSF, but then she was laid off for a year. Mark Hennig places her confidently in allowance competition for her first race back and Luis Saez returns, but there’s a chance she may just need a race. That makes her a vulnerable favorite, though she may be better anyway.
5- Nasty Affair (SCRATCHED)
The back-to-back barn changes for this filly prove that a NY-bred claimer should never leave statebred competition. Orlando Noda claimed her in her last race and places her in a race that he can’t lose her. Her last start was a solid victory, but despite the slow pace up front, the race seemed to favor runners from the back. Nevertheless, Jose Ortiz is a major rider upgrade and Noda’s placement of this filly, along with her speed figures indicate that she can probably compete well against this field off the layoff,
1- Lem Me Have It
This filly can usually be depended on for a solid performance, and her speed figures make her competitive. However, coming off the layoff for Bruce Levine and Eric Cancel, it’s possible that she just may need a race or two before she can contend for the top spot at this level.
Order: 4 3 5 1 (Note: The 5, Nasty Affair, has been scratched.)
I decided to take a small chance against Singular Sensation here, though I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she easily handled this field. Holmdel Park stands a chance to improve after facing some tough fields earlier in her three-year-old season. Meanwhile, Nasty Affair returns to statebred competition and can have a say at the end for Orlando Noda. Lem Me Have It fills out my top four, though I expect less from her than some others in here.
Race 7
$40,000 Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Non-Winners of Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
This is a very competitive race that I’ve decided to take a chance on. A lot of speed up front should aid runners coming off the pace, and with so many layoffs from last year, it’s important to find runners that will be ready. My top four:
8- Bourbon Mission
Manny Franco has left this runner to ride Valmont. This horse is also in for a claiming tag in an optional claiming race, although he’s not the only one. I’d like to get those two drawbacks out of the way first, because I love this long shot.
I was seriously considering placing this gelding second, but if I’m placing a win bet on him, then I should advertise that I’m doing so. Last year, after breaking the allowance condition for non-winners of one, Rudy Rodriguez claimed him for $40,000 and gave him two additional tries at this condition. He proved to be a step below at that time, regularly finishing behind fellow runners Fast Getaway, Dowse’s Beach and Discretionary Marq. At Aqueduct, Rodriguez started him twice on the dirt with little success and then gave him the rest of the winter off. For his first start off the layoff, he was placed in a very deep open company claiming race. At 47-1, he was still running well in the stretch when he was caught tight in between horses and couldn’t really move any further while checking several times. Despite the troubled trip, he managed to repeat the 77 BSF he was regularly getting last year. Now a four-year-old, he returns to this statebred optional claiming level, and he’ll be one of the few closers in a race that figures to have a lot of early speed. In addition, his three best turf starts have all occurred on Belmont’s inner turf. Rudy Rodriguez has excellent statistics for second starts off layoffs as well as in turf sprints, and he’s replaced Franco with Reylu Gutierrez, a young jockey he’s worked well with in the past. He’s still in a very talented field here, but such a preponderance of evidence requires serious consideration.
2- Discretionary Marq
This gelding really works like clockwork. Since 2017, this horse has appeared in the summer, run in six races during the season and then taken the winter off. This is the first race of the 2020 cycle, and the good thing about consistent runners is that they’re easy to evaluate. This runner has fired fresh off of this layoff in the past, and while others might need a race here, it’s less likely with this one. Robert Falcone succeeds off of layoffs like these anyway, and top jockey Irad Ortiz climbs aboard.
4- Fast Getaway
By the end of his 2019 season, this five-year-old gelding was running some of the best races of his life. However, he was still somehow unable to break the condition and returns here in his first start at five. He’s proven in the past to be a little slow to warm up, and Linda Rice isn’t great off of layoffs in any significant way. Jose Ortiz returns to ride and this one should run well, but may not peak for a few more starts.
3- Valmont
This five-year-old gelding pulled off two upsets in a row to end his 2019 season, winning an opening company conditional claiming race and a statebred allowance at long odds. He returns here in his first race of the season. Ray Handal is excellent off of layoffs and Manny Franco stays to ride, indicating that this runner may have a say on first asking, despite struggling to do so off of previous layoffs over the course of his career.
Order: 8 2 4 3
I should point out that I’ve excluded the morning line favorite, Dowse’s Beach, from my top four. He’s garnered a reputation of being an all-or-nothing horse in recent years; he wins or he finishes out of the money, regardless of his odds. Based on my projection of a fast pace for this race, I’m predicting the latter for the favorite. The 8, Bourbon Mission, may be 15-1 on the morning line, but I think he’ll be providing his best possible performance in this race against a field that may be a little cold off of the layoff. Discretionary Marq usually fires well on first asking and nearly took my first position. Meanwhile, Fast Getaway is a consummate talent but may not get rolling for a few races. Valmont rounds out my top four as a horse that consistently outruns his odds.
Race 8
Easy Goer Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
As six-horse races go, this is a stellar event, with at least four evenly matched runners, all with different running styles, going against one another. Any of those top four can win here, and I tried my best to differentiate between them below:
4- Sonneman
This colt’s performance in April at Gulfstream was very impressive. Breaking slowly, he gave 11 lengths away to a very talented field and ran them down in the stretch at seven furlongs. He moved to a new barn here under Steve Asmussen and figures as one who would appreciate some added distance, which could also put him a little closer to the leaders. With the right pace up front, this one should be dangerous late.
3- Casino Grande (SCRATCHED)
This colt found the perfect trip in his last start and can easily replicate it here. Sitting right off of a speed duel, he made a powerful move on the turn and drove away from the field to win an optional claimer at Gulfstream. Irad Ortiz returns to ride for this Clement trainee, and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t take to the extra sixteenth of a mile.
6- Toy
This poorly named colt had the worst trip imaginable in his last start, and yet, he still managed to find his way into this stakes race. In an allowance at Laurel, he was trying to find room inside when a hole closed and he was forced to check very late in the game. He moved to the outside and re-rallied, winning easily by the end. I don’t know about Laurel allowances or Michael Trombetta, but I can tell when a horse wants to win. I think John Velasquez agrees, as this is his first of two mounts on the day.
5- Prodigious Bay (SCRATCHED)
At Oaklawn for Ronald Moquett, this horse couldn’t have found a tougher optional claiming race in his last start. If Rushie and Candy Tycoon are the ones taking away a horse’s lead in the stretch, then that colt can be counted as a very talented front runner. This colt has run well with uncontested leads while routing, but in this race, he may have company. Celtic Striker may also go to his inside and provide Prodigious Bay with a new kind of test in the form of a duel.
Order: 4 3 6 5 (Note: The 3, Casino Grande, and the 5, Prodigious Bay, have been scratched.)
I may be playing towards my personal biases with Sonneman, as I’ve bet him on two occasions in the past. Casino Grande will be tough for him to run down in the stretch if he gets the perfect trip again, but I think they’ll both give very good accounts of themselves. Toy shouldn’t be counted out despite his somewhat humble origins in Maryland, and Prodigious Bay is an excellent colt that may just be compromised by other runners here. I look forward to watching this one.
Race 9
$53,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Breds, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf
This race has no pace, but does have several interesting runners that stand to improve. There’s also a compelling reason to go against the favorite, even if she seems superior on paper. My top four:
5- Towering Gaze
This runner started a step slow in her first start but closed well in the stretch to take third. David Donk is profitable with maidens entering their second start, but his real success comes when working with Jose Ortiz. This runner stands a chance of improving off of a very solid first start.
12- Fresco
This Christophe Clement filly is much the best on paper, and is only beatable with bad luck and an improvement from another runner. However, that was the case in her last start as well. She was very wide around both turns in her last start at Gulfstream, and she ran very well despite the circumstances but did not win as the clear favorite. She draws the far outside post again here, and if she can work out a trip, she’ll win by daylight. However, if she runs wide again, she may just be beatable at a price.
6- Helene Jacqueline
This filly is the only horse in the race with some sort of early speed, which could be a significant advantage in what could be a paceless race. Richard Vega and jockey Castillo are unknowns in New York, but the horse isn’t. She ran very well in her first start on turf earlier this month at Belmont, taking second despite having some trouble in the stretch. In her second start on the turf and her second start off the layoff, she stands to improve again on what appears to be her preferred surface.
10- Dancing Kiki
This filly was very wide in her last trip and still closed well from the center of the track. She finished behind fellow runner Towering Gaze, who managed to work out a much better trip despite the fact that they started from very similar positions. The reason I’m taking Towering Gaze on top and this one for fourth is because there’s a very good chance that the same thing happens again. She draws another outside post here, which could hurt her chances as it did last time.
Order: 5 12 6 10
I’ve concluded that if Towering Gaze improves and works out a trip, she can beat Fresco going very wide around the turn. If Irad Ortiz and Fresco find a trip from the far outside, then every runner in this race is in trouble, but I don’t believe the odds will compensate bettors appropriately for that dice roll. Helene Jacqueline and Dancing Kiki are also encouraging based on their last starts and stand to improve in this one as well.