As Thursday cards go, this one was actually rather interesting, with a variety of different races all providing competitive fields. If anyone happens to find the time, I recommend they give it a look.
Race 1
$64,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Six Furlongs on the Widener Turf
When’s the last time there’s been a bomb in one of these first time starter races at Belmont? I feel like the favorites have been pretty reliable lately, which I suppose is good for my analysis and little else. My sensible top four:
2- Alda
A horse’s first start is almost always a learning experience, which gives this filly a significant advantage over a few of her competitors. In that start, she didn’t seem all that interested in running until the final furlong, when she made up eight lengths to finish third by a length and a quarter. John Velasquez stays on this Graham Motion trainee, and hopefully she starts running a little earlier this time around.
7- Steal My Sunshine
Wesley Ward wins with 29% of his first time starters. Irad Ortiz is the best jockey on the track right now. This filly has a 406 Tomlinson for the distance. That’s about it.
6- Frankel At Ascot (Fr)
This filly is superbly named. Mark Casse is a little cold at the Belmont meet thus far, but his filly seems qualified here. Jose Ortiz is an excellent jockey, and she has a 365 Tomlinson for the distance. I don’t love the morning line odds guy at Belmont, but the fact that he or she’s giving her some love with 5-2 odds doesn’t hurt either.
4- Illegal Smile (Ire)
This filly is the second of three in the race that have already raced, though her first start wasn’t nearly as promising as fellow runner Alda’s. Even still, it was certainly one for her to learn from. Dueling on the outside is tough for any horse of any age, and I don’t blame her so much for struggling that day. The addition of Dylan Davis isn’t too encouraging for this horse trained by Wesley Ward, who recruited Irad Ortiz to ride his other horse in the race. Maybe she picks something up in her second start.
Order: 2 7 6 4
This appears to be a three-horse race between Alda, Steal My Sunshine, and Frankel At Ascot. I wouldn’t give up on Illegal Smile just yet, but she does appear overmatched here.
Race 2
$10,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This race has a very obvious favorite that I have my doubts about. He might just blow out this field, but I feel there are enough questions to take a shot. My top four:
9- Moneymeister
I guess I’m stuck with this horse now. In his last start, I predicted that he would make up some ground on Business Cycle to defeat him after suffering an eight-length defeat two back. I was right to a point, and thought I might be cashing in at the top of the stretch, but Business Cycle proved to be too much once again. He was wide all the way around the track in that race, so his trouble in the stretch is understandable, but he improved on his first start off the layoff. Every now and again, this gelding puts up an exceptional performance, and I think he may be rounding into another one.
3- Stoney Bennett (SCRATCHED)
I’m extremely concerned. When a horse shows regression at a higher class, a steep class drop can be a sensible, if dangerous, option for a trainer trying to find the horse an easier field. However, when a horse does well at a higher class, a class drop is a sign that the trainer and owner are trying to get rid of their horse while they still can. That’s the problem I struggle to overcome here: Linda Rice is losing this horse. It’s nearly guaranteed. She could have run him in a statebred race, or even a slightly classier claiming field in open company, and he would still fit well. He was selling for $25,000 in his last start at Laurel, where he performed admirably. Instead of pursuing any of those options, Rice is putting a $10,000 price tag on one of the more well known front runners in New York. There’s no way he’s staying in her barn, which is why I’m very dubious that he’ll maintain his superb form.
8- Javelin
Yeah, I’ve bet on this horse before. I don’t remember when, but he probably finished second. This gelding hasn’t won in a very long time, but he’s always close. Irad Ortiz rode him intelligently last time out, taking advantage of a speed bias with a horse that usually closes to finish second behind front runner Blue Belt. Irad Ortiz returns for Rob Atras, and this horse has been improving a little lately, but he’s a consistent money finisher while others in here are inconsistent winners.
1- Vincero
I have a theory, and it feels a little dumb. What if this horse’s recent loss of form is the result of bad racing luck and a couple of wet tracks? Two starts back on a sloppy track at Gulfstream, he didn’t get as close to the lead as he usually prefers, and was bumped and had to steady. In his last start, a good track at Belmont, he dueled for the lead with two other horses in a race that heavily favored closers. In this race, he’ll likely get a fast track, and Hector Diaz merely has to find a stalking trip on the inside. I don’t think he’s as far off as he seems here.
Order: 9 3 8 1 (Note: The 3, Stoney Bennett, is scratched.)
I thought Moneymeister would improve last time, and I think he’ll improve again, so I’m taking another chance. Stoney Bennett is supposed to crush this field on paper, and in a way, that’s actually a compelling reason to go against him for the $10,000 tag. Javelin should run creditably, as he always does, and I think Vincero deserves a little more attention that he’ll get.
Race 3
$66,000 Allowance for Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 ¼ Miles on the Inner Turf
This is a weak field for this condition, which unfortunately happens from time to time. Nothing really jumped off the page at me, despite the fact that I usually love these races. I had at least one question to ask before I endorsed any of my top four selections, which is never a great sign:
4- Ebony (Fr)
It’s rare to see a money burner in Europe, but this filly was just that in her time overseas. She’s been favored in five of her eight career starts, but only has one win, which came back in 2018. If this field was a little stronger, I’d feel comfortable going against her, but this is weak competition for this level and there’s a lot to like with this filly too. Graham Motion is excellent when bringing horses from Europe (29% success rate in 17 starts), and Irad Ortiz definitely had a few choices in this one and chose to come here. She ran in the Prix de Diane Longines last year, something none of these other runners would qualify for. Maybe someone can beat her, but I’m not convinced.
2- Whatdoesasharksay
Did this filly get an excellent trip last time? Of course she did, getting a clear lead and holding well to finish fourth behind some talented turf runners. The problem is that it would be very easy for Kendrick Carmouche to work out another front running trip in a similarly paceless race. She’s run well recently, has proven she can handle the distance and Belmont turf, and she should have a say here.
5- Hungry Kitten
I think Shug McGaughey suspects improvement from his filly here. She didn’t improve at all off of her start down at Tampa Bay Downs in her first race at Belmont, struggling to close on a speed-friendly track and finishing sixth by eight lengths at a shorter distance. This filly also lost to Madita and Xanthique that day, two fillies much more talented than the field on display here. She stretches out to a mile and a quarter, and Jose Ortiz takes the mount. That’s a significant upgrade over Manny Franco, and there’s enough going for this one to take a second look.
6- Setting the Mood
This filly seemed hesitant to make a move down on the rail, and as a result, never really got going in a last place finish. That’s no reason to despair, because the speed figure she earned is still good enough to compete here. John Velasquez returns for this Todd Plaetcher trainee, and after getting experience at the distance, she may run better this time around.
Order: 4 2 5 6
Ebony is a Graham Motion trainee in the United States, and while he’s been a little underwhelming in Europe, I trust him to be well placed in this small field. Whatdoesasharksay could try to wire them again, which worked reasonably well last time. Hungry Kitten and Setting the Mood will try to close, which could be challenging but certainly isn’t impossible.
Race 4
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
I identified three main contenders in this pedestrian race, and then found a very fun fourth selection for some readers to throw some money at. My top four:
5- Allure Fortune
To take this horse, I need to have faith in the trainer. She showed some promise in her only start as a two-year-old, and came back a little flat in her three-year-old debut last month. However, Jeremiah Englehart is phenomenal with runners in second starts off of layoffs and dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming. I trust him to have this filly, who’s previously shown ability, ready to run in this one.
7- Belleza
In a race taken off the turf last year, this filly made a very professional move on the turn. It wasn’t nearly enough to beat The Great Johanna, but it was good enough to beat this field. Linda Rice drops her down to maiden claiming competition and cuts her back to a sprint. She’s fairly successful at all of those things, and Irad Ortiz is encouraging as always. She’s the only qualified four-year-old in the race.
4- Love Me Tomorrow
I’m not sure how this filly managed to lose in that start back in March. She seemed to be in supreme command at the top of the stretch but coughed it up in the final yards. This is her second start off the layoff after a pretty successful turf attempt, and I think she’ll make it to the inside for a potential duel up front, though the fractions shouldn’t be too tough on her. I like her chances.
9- Giant Stella
Sometimes the most interesting horse in the race isn’t the winner. I’m wasting space to talk about this horse, so I’ll point out quickly that Central Exit and Madam Deputy are both fine choices for this race if you’re interested. But I’m not, so let’s have some fun.
John Morrison has only entered five horses in 2020 so far, and two of them have won. They were both first time starters, with The Last Ace paying $6.40 at Aqueduct in February and Hunnybunnerdini paying $97 at Belmont last month. Morrison’s only entered three horses so far at Belmont this meet, and two of them raced on June 4. One was the aforementioned 47-1 shot, while the other was She’s a Lumberjane, who finished third in her start at 17-1. Both horses were ridden by Luis Cardenas. His third horse of the meet raced two days later and finished 12th under Kendrick Carmouche. I don’t know anything about this particular filly, and everyone’s a genius these days, so she probably won’t be 20-1. But if bettors don’t put $2 on this filly at the right odds, then I don’t know what we’re all doing here.
Order: 5 7 4 9
Allure Fortune has Jeremiah Englehart, Belleza has the extra year of maturity, and Love Me Tomorrow has the best recent start. They’re all qualified to win, but their victories won’t be memorable. Giant Stella’s potential victory, however, would be a great way to light up a Thursday afternoon.
Race 5
$35,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Widener Turf
If only Spirit Animal could see all of the horses he vanquished from the $50,000 claiming level. Four of the seven horses in this race are coming off of a tough defeat against the new Rudy Rodriguez runner, who is still yet to race again, having been scratched on last weekend’s card. As for this race, I can throw a blanket over all of these. Therefore, I’m switching up my analysis a little here. First, I’m going to identify the three horses I felt comfortable definitively tossing, with a brief explanation why:
1- Monaghan
Serious step below, coming out of statebred competition, Romero Maragh is a bad sign.
2- Tricky Magician
Seems to like a slightly shorter distance, off form in recent starts, John Velasquez leaves to ride C C Rider.
8- Riendo
Would have to run a lifetime best, and his last race makes that tough to believe. I’ll be rooting for him.
From there, I’m going to identify my top six, all contenders that I believe can feasibly win this wide open contest:
4- Channel Island
Based on his past performances, I would usually wait for this runner to try a longer distance. However, based on Michael Maker’s statistics, now just might be the time. In his 2020 debut, he ran fairly well behind Spirit Animal, though a mile was clearly just a prep. He stretches out again here, and Maker is 37% with horses on their second start off of layoffs. Combine that with the presence of Irad Ortiz, and this horse suddenly becomes a very interesting play, even if he appeared comfortable going longer last year.
3- War Film
Now here’s a horse for the distance. Steve Asmussen hasn’t been fantastic when shipping horses north this season, and this runner’s last race was a little disappointing. However, he returns to his preferred distance, one he’s had some stellar performances on in the past. Jose Ortiz takes the mount, and a return to form could lead to a score here.
9- C C Rider
I wonder why they’re trying to sell him. He was racing exceptionally well last year, and consistently so, at higher levels than this. However, in 2020, he’s already been entered in a claiming event that was rained off, and another here. If he returns to his 2019 form, he’ll blow these runners away for Michael Matz, and John Velasquez seems encouraged as well. It just seems like there’s enough talent in this field to take a shot against him.
6- Quiet Out East
This horse is stepping up in race condition, and it’s a steep field to be doing so. However, this is the only real horse for the course in the race. In three career starts on the Widener turf, he’s run better than his previous start, including his 2020 turf debut last month. He’ll have to improve again to win this one, but that’s not such an unreasonable expectation in the barn of Brad Cox.
7- Uhtred
The once and future Lord of Bebbanburg has been provoked for the last time. Anyone that’s confused can look it up, I’m leaving that in. This colt has seen better days given his more recent races, as he ended 2019 as a beaten favorite at Tampa and faded badly behind Spirit Animal in his return. However, Christophe Clemente remains hopeful and drops him slightly in class in an attempt to find a softer spot. Junior Alvarado is going elsewhere, but Javier Castellano is an excellent replacement. Maybe he can come back in his second start off the layoff, and if he does, he’s dangerous here.
5- Another
This horse’s performance back in February was far more deserving than the ninth position for which it was designated. He was running as well as any other horse that day but failed to circumvent a wall of horses in a blanket finish. He returns here for Mertkan Kantarmaci at a condition he was competitive at as a lesser horse at Aqueduct. Based on his last start, he appears to be coming back around to his form from early 2019, and while he hasn’t won a race since December 2018, I’m not counting him out.
Order: 4 3 9 6 7 5
Hey listen, I’m not on NYRA. I can do what I want, and it’s a Thursday anyway. When I say that any horse can win this race, I mean it, and that includes the ones I tossed. I made my selections hesitantly, and we’ll see if my guess is better than everyone else’s.
Race 6
$64,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a competitive maiden race with some interesting runners. Some of the best angles in New York racing are on display here, but I’ve decided to go against Brown’s layoff numbers and Rice’s second start stat for the top spot:
10- Harlem Heights
Last year, this filly was running very well at the tail end of her juvenile season. She returns here for her third start and three-year-old, and something tells me that Shug McGaughey isn’t looking to be patient thus time around. He adds blinkers and recruits Jose Ortiz to replace Jose Lezcano, both signs that he’s looking to compete immediately. I like his filly’s chances.
4- Orsay
Well, here we are again, Chad and Irad are teaming up to slam the tote boards. This filly proved much better on dirt as a two-year-old and returns here for her three-year-old debut. Forecasting improvement for these horses is impossible, so I’ll just have to go on their two-year-old form and give a slight edge to Harlem Heights. For a better opinion, listen to Maggie Wolfendale in the paddock before the race, as she’ll have a more profitable opinion.
7- Simply Sweet
Bill Mott’s success with first time starters comes in stretches, and a bettor has to watch out for them. He won with firster Rivendell last week, so it’s time to start paying attention. That filly also had Junior Alvarado in the saddle, was getting Lasix, and was working quickly in the morning. She was also the 7, for what that’s worth. Keep an eye out for this one.
6- Back Channel
Linda Rice is phenomenal with maidens making their second start, and this one didn’t do too poorly on her first start either. In that race last month, she dueled well but lost the lead in the stretch to finish second in a field of five. Based on that performance and her trainer’s statistics, this filly fits well here.
Order: 10 4 7 6
I think that any of these four could win here, though I believe that McGaughey’s runner has the edge in his two-year-old form. if I’m being honest, I’m tempted to move Simply Sweet up to second, but I’ll hesitantly keep Orsay in that spot until I hear from Wolfendale in the paddock before the race. Back Channel is as good as any, and has a recent start to show for it.
Race 7
$80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Inner Turf
This is a great race for future stakes runners that had very promising two-year-old careers. They haven’t all stepped forward as three-year-olds, but they’re all still talented enough to make this race competitive. My top four:
5- No Word
Of all of the talented colts in this race, none of them have improved as much as this Todd Pletcher trainee. Last year, he was running competitively with Our Country and Shamrocket, but now, he seems to have taken a big step forward while the rest of them haven’t developed in the same way. His last start at a mile and a quarter was his most impressive performance, but his other starts indicate that his handle the cutback well. He’s going to be tough.
1- Our Country
This gelding ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year to end a pretty solid two-year-old campaign. However, in two starts at three, he’s been a little disappointing as a beaten favorite showing little development. He’s still a very professional horse, and he has the seasoning and ability to win here for George Weaver, who’s been hot this meet. He also regains the services of Manny Franco, his regular jockey last season.
4- Shamrocket
Our Country, No Word, Proven Strategies, Express Pharoah, and Venezuelan Hug. These are the five horses that defeated this runner in his six attempts to break his maiden. There isn’t one bad runner on that list. He finally broke through in his last start with a much improved performance, one that might indicate he can turn the tables on a few of his former rivals. When horses take a long time to break their maiden, it’s good to keep an eye out for their next start after they do. For whatever reason, the wins come much more frequently once that first one is out of the way. Horses are weird. In this case, I have to wonder if the mile and a quarter is what this horse really preferred, in which case the cutback would hurt his chances slightly. Even still, he’s too good to toss entirely.
3- On Base
Man, Jonathan Thomas is making me look bad this meet. Maybe it’s shipping from Tampa Bay Downs, which hasn’t been a favorable angle for anyone, not even Chad Brown. This one comes from down south as well, and I was ready to toss him until I noticed that he was coming out of a better race than that track usually provides. Back in March, he soundly defeated Sunsation, who then went on a pretty good run, defeating fellow runner Our Country in his last start. In an odd turn, this horse is also the only one in the race with a win at the distance. The layoff could hurt or help his chances, but if Javier Castellano keeps coming back for Thomas, then I’ll continue to consider his horses.
Order: 5 1 4 3
No Word has demonstrated improvement that none of these other runners have, which makes him a very tough horse to ignore. Our Country hasn’t really impressed this year, but he returns to Belmont, where he made his best career start last year, and Manny Franco finally gets back in the saddle. Shamrocket took a big step forward last time out, which suddenly qualifies him for the top spot against runners he’s previously lost to. On Base is a sneaky option for a very cold trainer, as there’s a chance he improves as a three-year-old off a four-month layoff.
Race 8
$66,000 Allowance for Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, One Mile on the Dirt
The last time Mrs. Danvers ran, it was a two-horse race between her and Indian Pride. This time around, it appears to be another two-horse race between her and Grand Cru Classe. My top four isn’t necessary, but I provide it below nonetheless:
5- Mrs Danvers
The only reason this filly didn’t win her last race was because of Indian Pride, a filly that seems destined to wreck some allowance fields in the future. Last race, I wrote this about this Shug McGaughey trainee:
In her maiden win last August, she was ridden confidently by Joel Rosario, and despite finding some trouble in the stretch, managed to run down Finite (future winner of the G2 Golden Rod and G2 Rachel Alexandra) at the wire. While I’m confident that McGaughey will have this horse ready off of the layoff, I’m even more confident that Brown will have Indian Pride ready as well. She’ll likely improve from two to three, but it’s unclear if that progression will be enough.
There are some talented horses for her to deal with in this race, but there is no Indian Pride.
2- Grand Cru Classe
This filly romped on a sloppy track to break her maiden in first asking down at Gulfstream. It was an impressive performance to take down Doll Collection, who won in her next start. She was running greenly in the stretch, which means that Bill Mott still has some work to do, but that’s good, because she’ll have to improve a little to beat the favorite here. That 77 BSF was earned in a perfect trip, which means that it was probably the best she could have possibly earned at the time. She’s not that far off, but she’ll have to make another move or get some racing luck to win here.
6- Maiden Beauty
This horse probably isn’t good enough to win, but she’s good enough to stick around. She’s raced against talented fillies her entire career, even in statebred competition, and while she’s routinely lost to better runners, she’s managed to get some purse money on several occasions. She was nearly six lengths slower than Mrs. Danvers last time out.
3- The Great Johanna
Anything I have to say about this filly would be very similar to my analysis of Maiden Beauty. Good NY-Bred, lost to some talented horses, probably not good enough to win here.
Order: 5 2 6 3
I don’t see Mrs. Danvers losing this race. She was qualified to win last time but ran up against a very tough opponent, one she won’t be facing here. Grand Cru Classe should run well here, but there are questions that make her tough to take against such a proven opponent. My third and fourth selections are likely also-rans here.
Race 9
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Widener Turf
Maiden races are the trademark closing event of nearly every Belmont card, and this one isn’t much more interesting than the average. My top four:
4- Come Storming
This filly ran very well in her last start but was run down in the stretch and had to settle for third. Thomas Bush drops her slightly, and she appears to be the most sound runner here. She should be fairly close to the pace early, which should help her in a race that will likely be run at slow fractions.
7- Matador Moon
I didn’t think this horse’s performance last time out was all that bad. No one was making up ground that day, and by adding blinkers this time around, John Terranova might be trying to get him a little more in touch early. John Velasquez’s presence is always welcome, and I can see this one improving in her second start.
5- Toastnjam
When I’m not sure whether a horse is going to come back strong off a layoff, I typically look for signs that the connections are confident. After performing poorly back in April, John Kimmel brings this runner back with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. That’s a great sign that this horse will return to some of her better races, and with a little improvement, she can be a profitable runner here.
10- Wicked Happy
If I had to choose between this filly and Simply Miss Red, I’d go with this one because she had a slightly tougher trip last time out. She was wide all the way around the track in that start, and while it’s not hard to visualize the same thing happening again, I think she might be a little better than what she showed last time out.
Order: 4 7 5 10
Come Storming seems to be a little too tough for these runners based on her previous performances. However, I believe Matador Moon and Toastnjam provide bettors with some valuable options, as they’ll likely outrun their odds based on the changes being made by their trainers. Wicked Happy and Simply Miss Red are going to be overbet because of their performances last time out, but they’re both qualified here as well.