Usually, I write these introductions after I do all of my analysis. However, following the beating I’ve just taken on the Saturday card, I need to write before I begin handicapping, as a way to calm down.
In horse racing, you sometimes have to reject what’s happening right in front of you, and more importantly, you also have to adjust to the chaos. The number of racing anomalies I witnessed yesterday would be tedious to recount, and it was a result of a unilateral early speed bias across all surfaces. On a day of great racing, I was somewhat unprepared for it in my analysis and tried to push it away throughout the day. In short, I have a new mantra that I’ll repeat to myself to maintain my sanity through this weekend: “Newspaperofrecord isn’t three lengths better than Uni. Newspaperofrecord isn’t three lengths better than Uni. Newspaperofrecord isn’t three lengths better than Uni.”
It might rain today, but it shouldn’t be bad enough to warrant any races being taken off the turf. I’ll simply be analyzing here under the assumption that there’s some moisture in the track. Let’s turn the page and have some fun here.
Race 1
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Breds, Six Furlongs on Dirt
This is a fairly routine race to begin the day with, and it seems a little light on strictly qualified runners. My top four:
7- True Grace
First off, True Grace is more of a filly’s name. Couldn’t you see Chad Brown winning a turf stakes with a filly named True Grace at 3-5? Anyway, this gelding had a rough start last December while dueling, fading badly on the rail to finish eighth. Christophe Clement drops her into maiden claiming competition, and he should get a more manageable pace scenario up front this time around. I don’t believe the wet track was to blame for his last start, and the conditions aren’t as important as Joel Rosario’s ability to establish a clear lead early.
2- Danegeld (SCRATCHED)
This gelding hasn’t been too encouraging in three starts, as it appears he’s run well enough to contend but not to win. He’s been at this level since February and isn’t in for a claiming tag under the new rules for these races in New York. Luis Saez is a major jockey upgrade, and he works very well with Jimmy Bond. He’s had trouble reaching the winner’s circle, but there’s reason to hope in this one.
5- Liquor (SCRATCHED)
In two starts running in maiden special weights, this colt ran reasonably well and drops to the maiden claiming level for James Ferraro. Luis Cardenas isn’t the best pickup to ride, but this horse fits well here based on very consistent speed figures earlier in the year.
3- After Prom Party (SCRATCHED)
This is a five-year-old maiden that’s only made three starts in his career. Based on his speed figures from last year, he strictly fits in with this field. However, this will be his first race of 2020 and he hasn’t been able to put two races together in his life yet.
Order: 7 2 5 3 (Note: The 2, Danegeld, the 5, Liquor, and the 3, After Prom Party, are scratched.)
I won’t try to beat the favorite with runners I consider uninteresting. That would be reaching, and while I’m not certain that True Grace will run his best race, I’m also struggling to find a runner that could feasibly run him down if he’s in condition.
Race 2
$12,500 Claiming, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
For a $12,500 claimer, this is actually an interesting race with some variety. There are few horses shipping in, and every running style is well represented as well. We’re finally beginning to escape the dread forced layoff, which only creates a new problem in figuring out horses’ performances in their second start off of the forced layoff. My top four:
3- Moneymeister
This gelding was running exceptionally well before the layoff, but didn’t return as sharply coming off the layoff. That race earlier this month favored closers, which led to an eight-length win by fellow runner Business Cycle. Unless there’s a dramatic change in the track conditions, this race likely won’t favor closers in the same way. In that last race, he still ran well to finish fourth behind Blue Belt, who ran a similar race stalking the pace. Blue Belt came back to win a $10,000 claimer this past Friday. I like this horse’s chances of improving second off of the layoff for James Ferraro.
7- Business Cycle
I’ve already said that this race won’t set up for him like it did last time, but his performance in that race was too good to ignore here. He made a very bold move on the turn and had the field put away before the stretch run, cruising home to win by six lengths. He has a little tactical speed, though not as much as Moneymeister, and he should be in the running here regardless.
8- Graves Island (SCRATCHED)
(NOTE: With this runner scratched, the 4, Tipsy Moose, will likely be getting an uncontested lead.)
I’m honestly proud of myself that I knew this jockey’s full name. Regular Parx rider Angel Rodriguez is apparently taking a day off to come to Belmont for one mount, this gelding for trainer Joseph Taylor. This Pennsylvania-bred was running reasonably well at Parx, at least in terms of speed figures, and after a short trip to Charles Town, is now shipping to Belmont to try to steal this race on the front end. What are the odds Rodriguez is simply taking a day trip for some good pizza before heading back to Philadelphia? It’s a possibility, but there have been some pretty improbable winners on the front end as of late, and this cheap runner may warrant more attention than he would normally receive.
1- Deep Sea
This is a very competent runner that warrants consideration underneath. There are two significant knocks on the eight-year-old when considering him to win, however. First, he hasn’t found the winner’s circle since December 2018. Second, he’s a dead closer, and his race last time out at Churchill probably represents the best possible BSF he can attain closing in on fast fractions. He might get up for a minor prize, but I prefer others here.
Order: 3 7 8 1 (Note: The 8, Graves Island, is scratched.)
Moneymeister finished eight lengths behind Business Cycle in their last meeting, but I think they finish much closer together today. The 3 could easily round back into form and compete with an adversary that may have already shown his hand last time out. Graves Island was an interesting entry to consider, and I was entertained enough to put him in my top three.
Race 3
$66,000 Allowance for Non-Winners of One Race, 1 Mile on the Widener Turf
If this race gets rained off, then don’t bet on it, because it goes from a very talented turf field of future stakes runners to a field stumbling home in the mud. As it is though, there’s a lot to like about this one, and I found a few interesting angles when making my top four:
1- Jazzique (Ire)
I’m aware that this is a boring pick. I also realize that this one likely won’t be 2-1 at post time. That being said, this filly ran very well in the G2 Miss Grillo last year to finish third and comes back here for trainer Chad Brown. Irad Ortiz stays on, and a training tab at Saratoga might indicate that Brown is thinking big with this one. Improvement from two to three is fairly certain.
4- Xanthique
Javier Castellano returns to ride this Thomas Morley trainee in her second race off of the layoff. In her last race, she entered a stalking position and held well in the stretch. She ran against some very talented horses as a three-year-old, and in her second start of 2020, she has a running style that will benefit her here.
2- Indochine
This is clearly the less highly touted of the two Brown firsters, but I’m placing her in my top three because jockey Joel Rosario has a bold streak. This field lacks serious pace, and Brown’s other runner is clearly being favored in here. This horse showed some speed at certain points in her two-year-old season, and there’s very little preventing Rosario from trying to steal it on a runner that will likely improve from two to three. It’s far too hypothetical to support consistently, but Rosario’s only other option is to try outrunning Jazzique in the stretch.
7- Hotsy Totsy (Ire)
In her first start of the year at Gulfstream in May, this filly ran very well and just missed as the favorite in an optional claimer. Clement ships her up here for her second start of the year, and while it’s concerning to see both Irad Ortiz and Joel Rosario leave to ride others, Junior Alvarado is always a welcome addition. This runner can improve as she ships up to New York.
Order: 1 4 2 7
I like Chad Brown’s fillies for different reasons here. Jazzique was a promising two-year-old that should step forward at three, while Joel Rosario can be dangerous on the front end with Indochine if he wants to be. Meanwhile, Xanthique ran well in her last start and should be able to run a similar race today. Hotsy Totsy lost two jockeys to other horses in here, but still ran well at Gulfstream and deserves a look.
Race 4
$40,000 Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
7- Deputy Flag
When picking this one on top, I understand that it’s not guaranteed that he can run on turf. What I can reasonably suspect, however, is a horse maintaining his form. Among the serious contenders in this race, most of them are entering here off of very poor and uncharacteristic starts. This runner was very consistent in the winter at Aqueduct before he was claimed and laid off by new trainer Brad Cox. He’s never raced on turf before, but Cox is successful when doing that. In addition, he recruits Irad Ortiz to ride, which is as compelling a case there is that this one’s going out to win.
8- Wild William
This gelding’s last race was pitiful as he dueled on the inside and faded badly to finish ninth earlier this month. The horse that dueled to his outside that day, Yes and Yes, outran him by a lot and won yesterday in a wire-to-wire performance. He probably won’t be alone up front this time either, but it’s possible he needed the race and will come back stronger in this one.
6- Hurricane Hill
This gelding was laid off by Linda Rice after a very poor start in January at Gulfstream. He returns here as the 8-5 morning line favorite, but there are a lot of questions to ask before he enters the gate. He’ll likely overcome whatever was wrong back in January, but Linda Rice isn’t remarkable off of layoffs, and this one may need a race.
1- Frosted Rose
I don’t particularly care for this horse, but I need a runner to fill out my top four. This Tampa Bay shipper fits the bill, although she has several issues related to distance and a layoff preventing her from the top spot.
Order: 7 8 6 1
In a race where performance is an issue, I’m willing to take a horse running on the turf for the first time, so long as I think he’s in good condition and has Irad Ortiz on his back. Wild William is more likely to recover from his poor start before the layoff, while Hurricane Hill feels like the least unsure commodity of the three.
Race 5
$20,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
This is a very ordinary race with some longtime runners that win when they’re supposed to. My top four in a race that could go a few ways:
4- California Night
This horse’s best days are probably behind him, but he was still running fairly well before the layoff. His return race was uncharacteristic, as he started slowly and failed to get the lead, fading badly while trying to come from off the pace. However, given his history, Thomas Morley probably wasn’t sending him out to win at six furlongs, as this horse has always proven more effective going a little longer. He gets the added distance today, drops down from $40,000 to $20,000 and John Velasquez returns to ride. This runner will go to the lead at this longer distance, and he’s usually a mile runner, so it’ll be interesting to see what he does with the extra sixteenth.
7- Armament
This gelding has been fairly consistent in 2020 despite undergoing several odd conditions. After running very well to win by six lengths in February, Eddie Barker entered him in a very long stakes race just six days later. That didn’t work out, but he recovered and ran well again in March before the layoff. He returned earlier this month and was switched to turf, a surface he had never won on before. He ran as well as he could be expected to there, and now he switches back to dirt in what should be a legitimate attempt to win. Eric Cancel isn’t a great jockey, but if his horse is running close to the lead, he’s a tolerable rider. Under the right circumstances, this horse can be a very tough competitor.
2- Walkoff
Under Todd Pletcher in 2019, this gelding won the first two races of his career before struggling on both surfaces at higher levels than this. In January, he was claimed by Brad Cox for $35,000 and immediately stepped up to a $50,000 conditional claiming race, which didn’t work out. He broke the condition off of the layoff at $14,000 with an 80 BSF and finally enters non-conditional claiming competition in this one. Luis Saez climbs aboard a horse that is three-for-three at Belmont, and Brad Cox has excellent numbers on horses entering their second start off of a layoff. This horse can easily contend here.
6- Lil Commissioner
This former Jorge Navarro trainee ships up to New York and enters the barn of Rob Atras. Atras is a very talented dirt trainer, but his statistics off the layoff are lacking and this one hasn’t raced since March. He fits here based on his previous figures, but there are several reasons to take a wait-and-see approach.
Order: 4 7 2 6
The track has been kind to early speed recently, so I’m favoring tactical horses over late running horses here in situations where they appear equal. California Night should return to form here for Thomas Morley and John Velasquez, while Armament is getting back to dirt in his second start off the layoff. Walkoff will have a lot to do in his first race outside of conditional claiming competition. I would like to see Lil Commissioner race before I endorse him too heavily.
Race 6
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Breds, 1 Mile on the Widener Turf
This race is offensively bad. A horse entered for Main Track Only has one of the better turf starts in the field. I didn’t waste too much time forming an opinion here:
6- Fridaybeers
I have no idea whether this gelding can run on turf. That being said, there are horses that have already run on turf in this race, and I’m not sure if they can run on turf either. Rudy Rodriguez isn’t at his strongest in turf routes, but he recruits Luis Saez, who is one of his most profitable jockeys by far. If this horse takes to the surface in any capacity, that might be enough.
1- Selfmade
This runner has a 382 Tomlinson for the turf but has only seen the dirt at Aqueduct so far in competition. Bill Mott is his new trainer and Junior Alvarado returns to ride. I like Bill Mott.
10- Coragescontender
This horse has a terrible name. Anyway, he’s the only one in the race that’s run a solid race on the turf, making up a little ground to finish sixth last time out at 58-1. A repeat performance here would probably yield a better result.
11- Bielefield
The horse didn’t perform well in his first start earlier this month, but Irad Ortiz is riding a horse trained by David Donk. It’s not much more complicated than that.
Order: 6 1 10 11
I’m taking a shot with a dirt speedster on the basis that Rudy Rodriguez recruited Luis Saez to ride. Mott and Irad Ortiz attracted me to the 1 and 11 respectively, while Coragescontender ran the least terrible turf race last time out. Let’s move on.
Race 7
$66,000 Allowance for Non-Winners of One Race, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
There have been more compelling turf allowances at Belmont this meet, but several runners in here are already preparing for Saratoga. They’re not lacking in talent, but nothing really jumped out at me as I looked:
1- Peaceful
As a three-year-old, this filly performed well against older horses on several occasions, including a fourth place finish at this level. This will be her four-year-old debut, and Javier Castellano returns to ride for Michael Stidham, who’s relatively successful with horses racing off long layoffs.
9- Mo Me Mo My (SCRATCHED)
Hmm, I wonder what Doug O’Neill has planned for this filly. In her first race as a four-year-old in May, she outran her odds while holding fourth in an optional claiming contest at Santa Anita. Then, O’Neill shipped her across the country and even gave her two workouts over the Belmont dirt to prepare for this race. This isn’t a move he typically makes, as he usually reserves his cross country moves for stakes horses. He recruits Luis Saez to ride, and this one could be interesting based on the special attention her trainer seems to be giving her.
3- Cariba
Based on this filly’s performances at Gulfstream, she fits well in this contest and should display tactical speed early. Joel Rosario seems to be Christophe Clement’s go-to jockey, and while this is likely a prep race before he stretches her out to longer distances, that doesn’t mean she can’t win. The 398 Tomlinson for the distance reinforces that notion.
5- Stop War
This filly wouldn’t deserve much attention if not for the connections. Christophe Clement has been putting her in workouts at Saratoga, and Irad Ortiz is riding. Ortiz’s presence isn’t as grabbing here as it would for other trainers, but it’s still an implication that this horse is better than she was earlier in the year at Tampa Bay Downs.
Order: 1 9 3 5 (Note: The 9, Mo Me Mo My, is scratched.)
Michael Stidham’s horse, Peaceful, was well suited to this distance at three and should take another step forward here off of a long layoff. I’m curious about Doug O’Neill’s intentions with Mo Me Mo My, as he could have very easily kept her in California. Cariba could very easily win this race, but I think she’s preparing for longer distances and there are others in here that are more equipped. Stop War is the other Clemente runner that shows signs of improvement.
Race 8
Bouwerie Stakes (NY-Bred), Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Jeremiah Englehart has the top two horses on the morning line in this race, an impressive feat for this smalltime trainer. I’m getting a little adventurous and trying to beat the heavy favorite, though I wouldn’t be surprised if he exceeds my expectations:
4- Risky Mischief
Of the two in here trained by Jeremiah Englehart, I prefer this also-ran from the G1 Spinaway last year. She and her stablemate have been training well, which partially negates their trainer’s lack of success off of layoffs. Most importantly, I think this one’s geared toward sprinting and is in a better position to win than her counterpart.
2- Ilchester Cheetah (SCRATCHED)
This horse’s first trip to Belmont back in September was an unmitigated disaster, but she’s had two poor starts in her career and they were both a result of not getting the early lead. That could explain her first performance off of the layoff as well, and Jeremiah O’Dwyer enters her confidently here. Jose Lezcano returns to ride and this horse should be closer to the lead in her second start off of the layoff.
1- Critical Value
At the end of her two-year-old season, this filly performed well in the G2 Demoiselle, which will likely earn her favoritism in this statebred stakes. My only question is that her success in routes last year is a sign that this race isn’t a prime target, especially since Jeremiah Englehart has another runner in here. She’s likely the most talented in here, but this feels more like a prep race than the end goal.
6- Big Q
Her race in November, an 81 BSF and five-length win, came out of nowhere and left just as quickly. By the end of 2019, she was competing in statebred stakes without excelling in them. He could come back strong, but there were several in here that were better at two.
Order: 4 2 1 6 (Note: The 2, Ilchester Cheetah, is scratched.)
I think Risky Mischief is better suited to this distance, and has been training every step of the way with favorite Critical Value, who may be working towards longer distance. Ilchester Cheetah could be a value play on the front end for a very confident trainer shipping in. Big Q fits here and could improve from two to three, but I prefer others.
Race 9
$53,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Breds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Widener Turf
This is a decent statebred competition with a good mixture of proven runners and relative newcomers. It’s the type of race that might send bettors looking for value, and I also got a little adventurous when find my top four runners:
9- Crescent Lady
Bill Mott and John Velasquez are 0-for-15 together at Belmont? Regardless, I like the logic behind this filly’s last start. There was never an expectation that she could win at six furlongs after competing exclusively in routes as a three-year-old. Mott is much more successful in second starts off of a layoff and has a reputation as a patient trainer. Velasquez returns to ride, and she should be ready to go this time around.
1- Kiss and Run
I like that Jose Lezcano regularly rides for Cherie DeVaux. I’m not sure why, but I like the idea of a smalltime trainer retaining a top jockey like that. This horse was trounced in an open company maiden special weight at Gulfstream, and it’s not always great to take Beyers at face value for horses finishing near the back of the pack, but a 66 might compete well here if it’s genuine. I’d prefer to see her closer to the lead, but I’ll trust Lezcano to get her the best ride he can.
12- Kept Waiting
There’s not much to go on here, but Danner Kelsey recruiting a jockey like Javier Castellano to ride a first time starter is huge. This horse has been solid in workouts and Kelsey has one win in two starts at Belmont this meet. Maybe this horse can perform well on first asking.
4- Giacosa
I don’t love this Jimmy Bond trainee, as she showed little improvement from two to three in her first race back this month. However, she ran competently there and it’s not impossible that she improves in her second start of the year.
Order: 9 1 12 4
I see a plan for Crescent Lady, and even though Bill Mott is cold, I’m willing to make a small wager on his preparation of this filly. Kiss and Run was beat badly at Gulfstream and gets some much needed class relief in this one. Kept Waiting is an intriguing first time starter running for a patient trainer and top-tier jockey. Giacosa could feasibly improve in this spot, and she may warrant consideration underneath.