This is a slow day, but it would be an insurmountable task to top Belmont Stakes Day yesterday. A weekend recap will be coming in the next few days, but in short, Saturday’s card lived up to every expectation a racing fan could have. For those closely following the Moquins’ quest as 0.1% owners of Power Up Paynter, I can say it was an amazing feeling to own a part of a winner on such a big day of racing. The reaction in my household to his statebred allowance win was more frenzied and raucous than any other race on that stacked card. It was probably the most fun I’ve ever had at the races.
Today’s a day to relax and express gratitude for fathers everywhere, and there’s no better way to spend it than playing the horses. Let’s take a look.
Race 1
$40,000 Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Widener Turf
Following the graceful, classy, highly competitive showcase on Belmont Stakes Day, this race represents a violent crash back down to Earth. In a turf sprint featuring winners, only five of the nine scheduled turfers have won a turf race. Really? These races are only fun when there’s a 1/9 shot in there to embarrass the rest of the field, and I don’t see any such entrants here. My top four, if you’re still interested:
8- Noble Jewel
Well, this filly’s won a race on turf, which apparently isn’t a requirement for $40,000 turf claimers in this race. This Carlos Martin runner is coming off a long layoff and is stepping out of statebred competition into an open company race here. She ran well enough at that level, and there’s no guarantee she’ll fire fresh off the break. That being said, she won’t exactly need her fastball to handle this field.
4- Temperance
Patrick Moquin Sr. says to follow the Ortiz brothers when in doubt. This filly comes off a maiden win at Gulfstream, not exactly a stiff test as she steps in against “winners.” Jose Ortiz hops on this John Stephens trainee, and I don’t expect him to ride for fun. In a race with horses that seem to avoid the winner’s circle, a recent winner may be more likely to repeat.
1- Shannon’s Girl
This filly is winless on the turf in ten starts, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t her preferred surface. She raced on the dirt at Aqueduct in the winter and struggled so badly, she actually won, breaking her maiden in January with a 39 BSF. She returns here for her first race since, returning to a surface she was much better on last year. I don’t like her for the top spot, but she should be able to outrun some of the clinkers in here.
5- Doll
This filly is 5-2 on the morning line, and that frustrates me. This former trainee of 0-time Kentucky Derby winner Jason Servis spent nearly his entire career on dirt up to this point. She’s sprinted on the turf once, finishing fifth in a statebred maiden special weight at Saratoga last July. Entering Brad Cox’s barn, can this filly win coming off the layoff? Sure, this field is terrible. Is she a worthwhile investment at odds near 5-2? Absolutely not.
Order: 8 4 1 2
Noble Jewel is a lightly raced NY-bred trying open company off of the layoff for Carlos Martin. That almost sounds like a functioning animal, so I’ll take her on top here. Jose Ortiz is convincing me that the 4 may be worth a shot based on the recent win at Gulfstream off the layoff. Shannon’s Girl fits well as an also-ran in here while Doll is a value play offering no value. Let’s move on.
Race 2
$64,000 Maiden Special Weight, Five Furlongs on the Dirt
For the most part, this is a first time starter race. Everyone knows the drill: Find a trainer, a jockey, a Tomlinson, and a few good workouts. If this takes more than fifteen minutes, then you must not be writing a blog on a tight deadline:
3- Roderick
Wesley Ward is 28% with first time starters. I have it on good authority that Irad Ortiz is a talented jockey. This colt has a 388 Tomlinson for the distance and is very quick in the morning.
5- Winfromwithin (SCRATCHED)
Todd Pletcher is 21% with first time starters. I have it on good authority (Wait a minute…) that John Velasquez is a talented jockey. This colt has a 388 Tomlinson for the distance and is very quick in the morning.
6- Zippy Baby
Alright, I have to get a little more serious to talk about this horse. But only a little. This gelding is the only one in here with experience. Two weeks ago, she ran in a turf sprint and closed very well on first asking. Dermot Magner switches surfaces here, which he does with some success. Joel Rosario sticks around to ride this one in a race he can win if he takes to the dirt as well as he took to the turf.
2- Copley (SCRATCHED)
Wesley Ward is 28% with first time starters (Hey!). I have it on good authority that Jose Ortiz (That’s not different enough!) is a talented jockey. This colt has a 346 Tomlinson and a reasonable work tab.
Order: 3 5 6 2 (Update: The 2, Copley, and the 5, Winfromwithin, have been scratched.)
Without the opportunity to go to the paddock and look at these, this kind of race is a crapshoot. Ward has two in here, though one is clearly entering with more hype than the other. Pletcher’s starter is in with a chance, and Magner’s colt is giving me something to go on and I’d like to reward that.
Race 3
$66,000 Allowance for Non-Winners of One Race, 1 ¼ Miles on the Inner Turf
Long routes on the turf are a lot of fun to figure out, but this one is a little strange. The favorite is a good turf runner that’s never won on the turf, and there are several stepping up sharply in class for trainers that can be trusted. My top four:
5- Civil Union
This mare hasn’t won a race since 2018, but she’s only made four career starts. Her last race in January was stellar as she raced widest in a four horse duel and outlasted all of those to her inside in a strong third place finish behind fellow runner Cap de Creus. Shug McGaughey is reasonably successful coming off of this kind of layoff and she has to get a better trip than she did last time. Based on the race replay alone, I feel secure taking this one on top against her main contender to her inside.
2- Cap de Creus
It’s almost unbelievable that this filly is winless on the turf in nine starts. She’s run so well on several occasions, but has never taken more than place money. She gets some class relief off the layoff for Todd Pletcher, who is likely looking for a softer spot (and a win) before stepping her back up to stakes competition. Based on her race last December, I wonder if she would appreciate a shorter route, but she runs again at this very demanding distance. This horse has a lot of trouble finding the wire first, and there’s a very credible runner in here that can challenge her.
1- Setting the Mood
This horse will need to improve, but Pletcher is a trustworthy trainer. The filly ran well to finish second in her first race on the turf, running wide but determinedly while coming up short. She was supposed to return to the turf but adjusted well to the dirt to break her maiden in a race that was taken off. This is her second race off the layoff, and Pletcher ships her to New York for a steep test. She could improve, but I prefer the two proven at this level.
3- Blame Debbie
Hey, Graham Motion has another weird one in here. He really does add some spice to the handicapping process. This filly raced on the turf in her last race while losing badly in a G3 stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. She had run well on dirt before, so what does Graham Motion do off the layoff? He brings her back in another turf race at an unfamiliar and difficult distance. If anyone else were training, I’d go with others. Unfortunately, I have a soft spot for Motion’s weird runners, although it’s an angle that’s been working surprisingly well recently.
Order: 5 2 1 3
Civil Union feels like the pick here against a morning line favorite that doesn’t seem to like to win. I don’t always love that angle, as I feel it’s overused, but in this case, Cap de Creus has really frustrated bettors. Meanwhile, Pletcher and Motion have some less experienced runners that stand a chance of improving. This should be entertaining to watch, as every horse has a sort of distinct character on paper.
Race 4
$25,000 Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Races, 1 Mile on the Dirt
This race has a very obvious top choice to accompany horses fighting for second. Someone will have to improve or regain form in order to take the top prize, and I don’t see it. My top four:
7- Bebe Banker
Well, here’s your winner. I wish I could be more exciting, but this gelding simply isn’t allowing it. This horse’s speed figures before the layoff are in a different league than the rest of these. To ensure that he’s coming back in condition, trainer Rudy Rodriguez recruits Luis Saez to ride, a jockey he wins with 35% of the time at Belmont. This horse hasn’t won in a long time, but he’s never been so heavily favored either. He would have to fall on his face to give the others a chance, and even then, his fellow competitors might wait for him to catch up before they get going again.
2- More Than Striking
This gelding was crushed in his last start, though the connections probably weren’t expecting to face competition like Belmont Stakes runner Tap It to Win in a Florida statebred race. He ships up to New York for new trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci, who is surprisingly effective training newcomers. This horse returns to a distance he excelled at back in February, and while I don’t think the 80 BSF is coming back, he may wake up a little and take some purse money.
3- Vinesse
Michelle Nevin and Jose Lezcano work well together, and this horse performed very well to break his maiden back in February. The layoff may have actually given this gelding some time to develop, which could come in handy as he steps up to face the toughest challenger he’s encountered on the dirt thus far.
6- Oneshotatforever
Richard Schosberg and Romero Maragh connected for a $22 winner at some point in time, and it’s the only time they’ve ever worked together. This gelding broke its maiden in statebred competition, which is immediately a knock considering that others in here managed to get a win in open company. Once again, the layoff gives him time to improve, but he’ll be fighting for second place.
Order: 7 2 3 6
Bebe Banker is superior and shouldn’t find too much trouble against these. His opponents aren’t particularly interesting or encouraging as underdog candidates.
Race 5
$66,000 Allowance for Non-Winners of One Race, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
This is the type of race where I can identify a potentially weak favorite but can’t nail down a horse to take away the top spot. I took a shot here in my top four:
2- Montauk Daddy
The list of horses this colt competed against as a two-year old is astounding (Chimney Rock, Another Miracle, Proven Strategies, Embolden). A very tough two-year-old season ended with a fast closing sixth place finish against Jack and Noah, who nearly ran a track record on the turf this past Friday. Linda Rice finally notched her first win of the meet with Power Up Paynter yesterday, and like that one, she recruits Jose Lezcano to return to ride this one off of a layoff. Defeating older horses is always difficult for three-year-olds, but this one fits well here.
3- Morning Breez
For whatever reason, I don’t love this gelding in the top spot, though I’ve struggled to find someone to replace him. Back when this horse was running on turf, she competed very well with consistently high figures. Then she returned to Aqueduct in February and found some success on the dirt. Robert Klesaris made a choice bringing this one back on the dirt earlier this month, and he’s apparently changed his mind and switched the surface again. He’s still winless at this distance on the turf, though there’s no doubt he’ll make a good showing.
7- Quarky
An Oklahoma-bred?! Anyway, I’m 60% sure that last race was just a bad start. This horse clearly prefers to six furlongs to five, and the race didn’t set up for early speed and he faded badly. He’s had a a few months to rest and will run six furlongs in his return race. This one will be quick to the lead, but he doesn’t keep it too often. His figures last year were astounding, and should he return strong, he’ll have a say here.
6- Cucina
This Bill Mott gelding underwhelms me just a little. She had a solid two-year-old campaign, though speed figures indicate that Montauk Daddy was a shade better at the time. She’s run well this year at Gulfstream improving from two to three, but she’ll have to improve again in order to contend with some of the older horses in here.
Order: 2 3 7 6
Morning Breez is very qualified and is in a position to succeed here, but I get the feeling he’s beatable. I took a shot with three-year-old Montauk Daddy, who ran very well last year at two. I believe Quarky will come back strong off the layoff, but even at his best, this horse never had staying power in the stretch.
Race 6
$75,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile on the Widener Turf
Races like these provide trainers with a slightly softer race for their maiden special weight horses. Very rarely is a horse claimed for $75,000, giving trainers the opportunity to get their horse into weaker fields without the risk of losing them. This maiden field isn’t the best ever assembled, but it’s fair enough for Brown to try to steal with a firster. My top four:
1- Tilsa
I like this one’s first race, but I like the trainer even more. Jonathan Thomas produces some very smooth turf runners across the country and brings this filly from Tampa Bay Downs. In her first start there, she made a decent rail bid but had to settle for place money. Thomas is incredible with maidens in their second start and this one stands a chance to improve this time around.
8- Checksandbalances
This Chad Brown runner enters her first start in a pretty soft spot, and she’s certainly in good hands. Brown is excellent with firsters and works well with Klaravich Stables and Irad Ortiz. On the turf, he’s nearly unstoppable, and I expect this one to fire when asked.
2- Lovely Lucky
This Thomas Albertrani trainee came off the layoff and found new life on the turf for the first time. Down at Gulfstream she made a decent bid on the turn at 71-1 odds to finish fourth by less than four lengths. Her trainer was to wise to keep her on the surface, and coming second off the layoff, this horse will ship to New York for another shot. Jose Ortiz works well with Albertrani, which indicates that the connections believe their horse is live.
7- Come Storming
In this filly’s first race off the layoff at Gulfstream, she showed little improvement from two to three while holding on to fourth place in the stretch. Thomas Bush attracts Luis Saez to ride, a sign that she might improve further second off the layoff. That being said, I’d prefer others in here and will leave this one fourth.
Order: 1 8 2 7
I’ll try to beat Brown’s first time starter with Jonathan Thomas’ entrant running second time out. Maybe the 8 will simply be too much, but the 1 got a decent trip on the rail in her last race and may be able to pull it off again. My bottom two runners are a step below the top two, but are selections I think can do some running in the stretch.
Race 7
$32,000 Claiming, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is the type of race that I can get suckered into. The morning line favorite holds a slight edge over the rest of the field, and it’s close enough that I’ll try to find a value play instead of going with the chalk. My top four:
5- Hot Little Honey
I gave this horse a second look because of the jockey upgrade from Eric Cancel to Irad Ortiz, and I wasn’t disappointed upon second viewing. Two races back, the filly beat fellow runner Stunning Munnings in a straightforward stretch duel; she had to chase her down and did so with determination. Last race was probably a result of the mile being too long for her, and she cuts back to six furlongs here for Michael Maker. This horse is coming off a layoff, but Maker wouldn’t hire Ortiz unless he thought she was ready.
8- Wedontbelieveher
I can easily see this filly winning the race, as she has superior figures and always runs fairly well. However, she only has a slight edge over this field as the morning line favorite, so I took a stab and tried to beat her. This horse will likely stalk the pace behind stablemate Our Lady of Loreto and make a move on the turn. My only worry is that she’ll be a little wide out there while stalking, and I don’t trust Romero Maragh to get this one a trip she deserves.
4- Our Lady of Loreto
The other Rudy Rodriguez filly here is the fastest in the race, and may get away with an uncontested lead for awhile. Last year, this horse broke her maiden in her second start, breaking loose early from the rest of the pack to secure an easy eight-length win. She won’t get it that easy today, but there’s also a chance she improves as a three-year-old. I have two concerns, however. The first is that Rudy Rodriguez is focusing more on his other filly in here to the outside. My other concern is that Rodriguez is putting a jockey on the horse that he isn’t familiar with, which may indicate that he’s not making as compelling an effort to win in her first race off the layoff.
3- Stunning Munnings
This filly trained by David Duggan fills out my top four as a consistent runner that could fight for show money. She was beaten straight up by fellow runner Hot Little Honey back in February and hasn’t raced since. She returns here for a trainer that is not very successful off the layoff, working with Kendrick Carmouche, a jockey he doesn’t often succeed with.
Order: 5 8 4 3
I’m hesitantly going against the morning line chalk with Michael Maker’s filly cutting back to six furlongs with Irad Ortiz riding. Both of Rodriguez’s fillies could run well, though I suspect one will fare a little better than the other. Stunning Munnings was once defeated in the stretch by my top selection, and I believe they’ve gone in different directions since.
Race 8
Lady Shipman Stakes (Ungraded), Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
This is a nondescript feature with a considerably large field and some solid runners. I’ve narrowed it down to three horses for the top spot, which might suit Pick 5 and Pick 6 players more than it will win bettors. My top four below:
11- Miss J McKay
Trainer Cathal Lynch is winless in 18 starts off of long layoffs, but I think this one is here for a reason. At two, this filly was dominant last September at Laurel, winning an ungraded stakes race there by five lengths and earning an 87 BSF. She returns here at three for her first start of the year, and while Lynch doesn’t always handle that well, this move feels too intentional. The trainer doesn’t ship to New York nearly as often as he used to, and he never came to Belmont as often as he did to Aqueduct a few years ago. This one is being entered by a trainer that wouldn’t waste his time in New York. The 11-post is unfortunately going to send her wide if she can’t find a trip, but one turn won’t be as punishing as two would be and Lynch has recruited Jose Ortiz to ride.
6- She’s My Type (Fr)
Come post time, I still might place a win bet on this Christophe Clement trainee. I was very torn between this filly and the one to her far outside, but I ultimately decided to take the shorter price because I feel she’ll improve more than this one. In four career starts on the turf down at Gulfstream, this filly hasn’t done anything wrong, winning her first two and battling to the wire in her last two. In her last race, she was running hard in the stretch but had to settle for third behind Highland Glory, runner-up in yesterday’s G3 Wonder Again, and Cheermeister, a notoriously stubborn front runner. Clement is the type of trainer that would take a feature like this with Joel Rosario aboard, and I think this one will make a good showing off the layoff.
4- Chili Petin
This is a strange entry for Wesley Ward that I can’t really decipher. Her one turf start was probably the classiest one start possible, as she finished 12th in a 25-horse field overseas at Ascot in the Albany Stakes. She returned to the states on the synthetic track at Turfway Park in Kentucky (not Turf Paradise in Arizona), and easily handled an optional claimer there wire to wire with an 80 BSF. Wesley Ward is a bold trainer with some overseas connections, and he wouldn’t have brought this one there if he didn’t respect her ability on the turf. She enters into an ungraded stakes at Belmont here, and she has a strong chance based on her trainer’s previous confidence alone. The pace scenario sets up for her as well, as she’ll likely be running by herself up front for a while.
1- Bredenbury (Ire)
This Graham Motion filly fits well here based on speed figures as well as class. My one knock on her is her tendency to hang in the stretch. In her last race, she seemed more than prepared to rally down the middle and pick up an easy check. Instead, she was very even and finished fourth despite having a very clear path. She usually runs well, but I’m not endorsing her for the top spot here.
Order: 11 6 4 1
I wouldn’t be surprised if my top three selections finish in a different order. Miss J McKay may be ready to go for her three-year-old season, She’s My Type is ready to go off the layoff following a solid Gulfstream campaign and Chili Petin will be the speed in a race that may set up well for her. This should be fun to watch, but I’ll be sticking to exotic wagering in a relatively open affair.
Race 9
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Breds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Widener Turf
This is a surprisingly deep statebred maiden claimer, with several interesting runners figuring to compete. I usually dislike these races, but this one had some interesting angles to consider. My top four:
8- Bricco
At two, this gelding ran well in her only start to finish third in a statebred maiden special weight. She drops to maiden claiming competition here for Jimmy Bond and has been gelded since that start. Bond does reasonably well off of layoffs, but the real indicator here is that Luis Saez returns to ride. This horse has a solid chance to improve from two to three and he’ll be the one to beat on the tote board.
11- Zipalong
This colt ran in one turf race in his two-year-old season, sprinting in a statebred maiden special weight at Aqueduct in his first start. He finished fifth behind Power Up Paynter that day, who took down a statebred allowance at 15-1 in the final race yesterday. Like Bricco, this colt drops to the maiden claiming level for his first start on the turf in his three-year-old season. Michelle Nevin should have this one ready to go and Manny Franco returns to ride.
9- Hurricane Andrew
If this horse doesn’t run well, then I fully blame the trainer, because Rohan Ramdat has been given a horse with some talent on the turf here. Last year, the connections got a little unlucky when entering this runner, as two of his five turf starts were rained off and put back on the dirt. This horse did absolutely no running on dirt, but when he got to go on the turf, he was consistently competing at several levels. He didn’t belong in that open company maiden claimer in November, but he was far from disgraced, finishing sixth within three lengths of the winner. If this colt can return strong, he’ll have a shot here, but it’s so hard to trust this trainer to get him ready off of a long layoff. Recent workouts only reinforce that idea further.
3- Shared Success
I wish Brad Cox and Rohan Ramdat could trade horses for this one. After three maiden special weights on the dirt at Finger Lakes as a two-year-old, this horse’s fortunes take an incredible turn as he enters the barn of Brad Cox, one of the best trainers in the country. In an even stranger turn, Cox switches surfaces immediately with his new colt, entering the dirt sprinter in a turf route in his first race as a three-year-old. Cox is excellent with all of these changes (25% success rate following a trainer switch, 17% off a layoff of 180+ days, 30% when stepping down to maiden claiming, 24% with first time turfers, 31% switching from dirt to turf and 23% switching from a sprint to a route). However, there’s not much to go on with this horse outside of the trainer, which relegates him to the status of an intriguing long shot.
Order: 8 11 9 3
I think Stucco stands the best chance of coming off the layoff ready, with Jimmy Bond recruiting Luis Saez for a colt that’s already run well on the turf at two. Zipalong should improve as well, having run in deeper waters before on this surface. Hurricane Andrew showed some turf form last year, and I really hope his trainer has him ready, though I was concerned enough to move him down to my third position. I can’t place Shared Success any higher than fourth, as there’s very little to go on when considering the Cox horse. He could run well, but he’s untested coming from Finger Lakes.