This card begins with some awful racing, but progressively improves throughout the day. After a chalky Saturday, many handicappers are still looking for that long shot to make their weekend, and there’s no better place to find one than in the cellar of New York racing.
Note: To be candid, my morning was occupied by a stirring rendition of the Austrian Grand Prix, the first race in the modified Formula One Championship. As a result, while my Belmont analysis is more or less completed, I’ve only written up the first five races. Check back throughout the day for the remaining card. Viva Ferrari.
Race 1
$16,000 Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This race likely won’t put anyone into an early retirement, but it’s an honest way to start the card and try to make some money. My top four:
3- Enough Love (SCRATCHED)
This filly’s last race qualifies her to take down this field, as she finished ahead of fellow runner Queendom and behind Kinky Sox and Rousey, who both ran well in their starts this past weekend. Luis Saez returns to ride for this Robert Falcone trainee off the layoff.
7- Mosienko
She’s been running on turf for a long time, but way back in her two-year-old season, she ran a pair of races on the dirt that fit against these three-year-olds. I wouldn’t jump on the idea that she’ll improve from two to three though, since this horse has been dropping drastically in class over her last few starts and yielding disappointing results.
1- Queendom
This deep closing filly had a somewhat difficult trip last time out in a race that didn’t seem to set up well for her. This race also lacks serious pace, however, and it really did seem like Enough Love was better last time out. Bettors will have to hope for improvement second time out off the layoff for Carlos Martin and Eric Cancel.
6- La Negrita
She’s a tad bit slow, but Rudy Rodriguez knows how to drop a horse in class. Outside of Mosienko, this runner has faced the best competition in her career. The first race off the layoff was on turf and can be tossed, making this is her first real effort of the meet to win with Reylu Gutierrez in the saddle.
Order: 3 7 1 6 (Update: The 3, Enough Love, is scratched.)
I’m taking Enough Love over Mosienko on the basis of recent form because Mosienko has been skidding down the class ranks in recent starts and may just need a few races to round back into form. That being said, her performances at two are very close to winning this race as a three-year-old. Queendom will likely have too much to handle coming from far back, while La Negrita makes up for speed with class and good connections.
Race 2
$64,000 Maiden Special Weight, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf
This is a very weak maiden special weight field. My guess is that trainers are saving their best runners for Saratoga, because there aren’t many in this field that leap off the page. My top four:
5- Too Sexy
This filly lands in a very soft spot for Christophe Clement in her second start off the layoff. She finished sixth in her last race in a close finish while going wide behind horses like Windfall Profit, who would handle this field easily. Joel Rosario signs on to ride for a runner that’s run her race three straight times this year.
2- Sing Me Home (GB)
If I have to choose between Chad Brown horses, I’ll go with the one that’s being pointed to the turf from the very beginning. Brown is 27% with first time starters and brings Castellano along to ride. This horse doesn’t appear to have as much hype as some of her stablemates, but this is a very weak spot for her on first asking.
6- Risk Model
I’m not sure why this horse’s first two starts were on dirt, but Chad Brown is the type that can be trusted with this sort of thing. He puts the horse in on the turf for the first time here, a successful angle for him like most others. Irad Ortiz returns to ride, making this one an overbet option based on the connections.
3- Morality Clause
This filly was a little light on speed as a two-year-old, but she competed in some very steep races. She lost to several runners that went on to compete in juvenile stakes races, and the talent on display in those races simply isn’t present here. Ray Handal is very successful with horses coming off of layoffs, making this a long shot with some upside.
Order: 5 2 6 3
Too Sexy should handle this field based on her recent speed figures, while everyone else will have to improve or show something on their first start. Brown has two annoying runners in here to try and take down the clear favorite, while Ray Handal has an experienced and intriguing long shot filling out my top four.
Race 3
$30,000 Maiden Claiming, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This race is a little tricky, because I feel that improvements and regressions between horses will be drastic and sporadic. I identified three key contenders, but I’m honestly not sure what it will take to win this one:
5- Height
This Bill Mott trainee raced on the dirt twice as a two-year-old at Saratoga in maiden special weight competition. After a strange turf start to begin his three-year-old season Mott drops him into maiden claiming competition against a much lighter field. The drop is somewhat concerning and indicates that he hasn’t improved at three. However, Mott is successful with horses in their second start off the layoff and Junior Alvarado sticks around to ride.
3- Tri Saint Lorenzo
This is the only competitive four-year-old in the race, which could be an advantage related to development and maturity. This horse’s best race came back in March in a third place finish against maiden special weight competition. He came back last month with a decent performance in his first start against maiden claimers, but it represented a small step back in form. Carlos Martin is very unprofitable at several angles at play here, but the horse has what it takes to win here.
10- Warfront Fighter
This colt’s first race off the layoff was his debut in maiden claiming competition, and he made up ground down the center of the track in that one but came up nearly four lengths short. Gary Gullo adds blinkers, which isn’t an angle he’s succeeded with recently, but this horse can obviously improve in his second start of the meet. Irad Ortiz stays as well, and at this point, he’s not in a position where he has to ride hopeless runners.
1- Fed Funds
I think this gelding needs a race for trainer Horacio DePaz, but that doesn’t mean he won’t run well. The maiden special weight field he faced at Laurel in December was fair, and now he ships to New York for a maiden claiming competition. DePaz is generally successful when making that drop, though he isn’t as effective off layoffs.
Order: 5 3 10 1
Height is the class of the field after several starts at Saratoga in his two-year-old season. Two Saint Lorenzo has the advantage of age on other qualified runners, but some of Carlos Martin’s statistics concern me here. Warfront Fighter can easily improve on his last start with Irad Ortiz returning to ride, while Fed Funds is a horse I’m considering for a spot underneath.
Race 4
$40,000 Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is an interesting turf race that’s a little stronger than the claiming condition might suggest. Several runners should be making moves from the back, and it becomes an exercise in figuring out which, if any of them, will make it to the front in the stretch. My top four:
7- Bray
In his four-year-old debut, this colt picked up right where he left off, finishing well for third in a starter allowance last month. He takes a small step down here, which should help his chances, as he seems to be a little bit stronger than his opponents now. Joel Rosario leaves my second choice, Torres Del Paine, to ride this one for Christophe Clement, and he’s back at a longer distance he seemed to appreciate last year.
9- Torres Del Paine
This gelding has raced at six tracks during his seven-race career, but is finally settling down at Belmont for his second start off the layoff. He ran well last month in an unconditioned claiming race, and this will be his first opportunity as a three-year-old to put two races together. Graham Motion has been lights out at Belmont this meet, particularly with horses that seem a little overmatched. He seems to be judging his horses’ ability very well lately, and if he trusts his runner in this spot, then so do I.
10- Mandate
This colt was performing at a very high level at Gulfstream, but his return to Belmont was a little underwhelming, as he was well beaten in fourth behind fellow runner Bray. Irad Ortiz returns to ride this horse, having ridden him in Florida, and he’s a contender here in any case. However, it will be difficult to endorse him in the top spot after losing so convincingly to Bray last time out.
1- My Sacred Place
Brad Cox and Luis Saez have been on fire when racing together at Belmont, and this former Jason Servis trainee is going to benefit from that connection on the tote board. He only has one start on the turf, and it was unremarkable (a distance sixth behind budding turf star Decorated Invader), but Cox brings him to the grass off the layoff nonetheless. He’s good at everything, so it’s somewhat difficult to tell if this is a permanent change or a surface switch to prepare him for future dirt starts.
Order: 7 9 10 1
Bray is a very qualified runner that I won’t try too hard to go against here. That being said, I am intrigued by Torres Del Paine, and will likely involve him in some way. Mandate just raced against Bray and couldn’t match him, while My Sacred Place is a wild card that will likely be overbet.
Race 5
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Breds, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf
This is a bad race, even for the statebred maiden claiming condition. Most of the contenders are stuck on the also-eligible list, and most of the scheduled runners would be long shots in any other race. My very disappointed top four:
9- Long Island City
Assuming the also-eligibles are all scratched, this horse’s last performance is much better than any other runner in this field. He was in a good field last month in his first start on turf, but he held well while stalking to take fourth in a 12-field. This race isn’t nearly as tough as that one was, and I have no issues with the way Kendrick Carmouche has been riding him.
5- Fast Gordon (SCRATCHED)
Normally, I wouldn’t be interested in a Linda Rice second time starter debuting on the turf. However, in this gelding’s first race, he was ridden by Dylan Davis, a sign that Rice was trying to prepare her horse. Now she recruits Jose Ortiz, which may indicate that he’ll be racing more competitively. In a field of underwhelming runners, it’s preferable to choose a horse with unrealized potential.
4- Unlikely
The extent of this horse’s ability is fairly clear, but in such a poor race, John Pregman may just be able to pick up a minor check here. For what it’s worth, the horse could improve in his second start off the layoff.
7- Daring Disguise
This horse has too much experience to trust as a maiden. It appears that his best races are behind him, and even then, he couldn’t get a win. He can still run a little, but I don’t trust him all that much.
Order: 9 5 4 7 (Update: The 5, Fast Gordon, is scratched.)
Long Island City and Fast Gordon are the only two I’m considering for the top spot. I believe that my third and fourth runners are somewhat interesting underneath, but this is an unappetizing race by most standards.
Race 6
$50,000 Starter Allowance, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
If I was going to show someone an average dirt race at Belmont, this would be it. There’s a good variety of running styles and race backgrounds, and it should play out interestingly on the track. My top four:
1- Mister Bobby
This gelding’s only win came via disqualification, which makes him a little difficult to take on top here. That being said, I happen to appreciate him as a runner. He had no chance in his last start before the layoff chasing lone speed, and he was passed in the final yards by two horses in a negligible finish. His worst two starts by far have come at Belmont, but one was his first start and the other was his only route attempt, so I don’t believe it’s the track. He gets Luis Saez back for his first start off the layoff and Jimmy Bond does fairly well off layoffs.
2- Fevola
Chad Brown had a very sensible second time starter with this gelding in February at Aqueduct, but this horse exceeded those expectations, dominating a maiden claiming field by eight lengths. He had the race to himself that day and took advantage of it, but it’s unlikely that will happen again here. Chad Brown has his horses ready off of layoffs like this, though he usually has his horses ready regardless. I think he’ll be a little overbet here on account of his connections, though this field may not be strong enough to deny him.
6- Riken
Luis Cardenas will try to wire this field with a horse that’s proven he can do it. This four-year-old came back last month with the best performance of his career, getting a clear lead and staying clear to win at 25-1 odds. He steps up again here for trainer David Donk, and if he gets a clear lead, he’ll be tough to beat. There is, however, a little more pace in this race than there was in his last start.
5- Tapizearance
This is a tough horse to analyze. On his ninth attempt, this gelding improved dramatically to dominate a statebred maiden claimer at Aqueduct for Brad Cox. In his next start, he was heavily favored in an open company optional claiming race and win again by daylight. His speed figures in those races are almost enough to contend here, but then he was claimed by John Toscano. He came back off the layoff at Belmont, and he lost badly, returning to his form as an eighth-race maiden. Kendrick Carmouche was on board for both of his wins and comes back today, but it’s unclear if it was the jockey or the trainer that was responsible for those wins earlier this year. I’m interested, but there’s some wariness too.
Order: 1 2 6 5
I don’t think I’ll be appropriately compensated for endorsing Fevola, so I’ll take a chance with Mister Bobby, who I believe may be able to notch his first real win here. Riken has a chance of wiring them, but I don’t think he’ll have the same trip this item around. I’m mentioning Tapizearance because he doesn’t make sense to me, and when that happens, it usually goes one of two ways.
Race 7
$62,000 Optional Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Races, 1 Mile on the Widener Turf
This race is completely wide open, and that’s much more tolerable for me when the horses are this good. This field comes from all over the world and many of them are trying to establish themselves in the United States. Among these international runners, I tried my best to form a top four:
6- Stone Tornado (GB)
In her first race stateside, this filly was excellent, dueling well in the stretch before getting caught by her entrymate. Chad Brown is brilliant at stretching horses out to route distances, and while many of these runners will contend early, she’ll more likely close. This race sets up well for her, and while she’s one of several evenly matched fillies here, she may be in the right spot to get on top.
7- Madeline Must (Fr)
This filly interests me despite a poor performance last time out. That was her first race in the country for Christophe Clement, and she appeared uncomfortable throughout and faded late. One performance like that under the circumstances can be excused, and in her European races, she found a lot of success stretching out from seven furlongs to a mile. Joel Rosario takes the mount, a long shot that I’m willing to give another chance.
8- She’s Got You (GB)
This filly and fellow runner Chaleur bring their rivalry to the U.S., and I prefer this filly as she enters Chad Brown’s barn. Overseas, she hasn’t run a step out of place on the grass, and while Brown has more profitable angles than with his international acquisitions, but Javier Castellano rides for a horse with talent and a brilliant turf trainer.
5- Madita (Ger)
She was excellent in her first start off the layoff for Arnoux Delacour, running away from an allowance field and winning by four lengths in the end. She takes the necessary step up here, and Irad Ortiz and Joel Rosario have both elected to ride for other trainers. However, Luis Saez is as able as those riders, and this horse has as good a chance as any.
Order: 6 7 8 5
Based on the projected pace scenario, I expect Stone Tornado to fare well here, as she’s a closer that’s not afraid to fight for the lead in the stretch. Madeline Must is a little risky in this field, but I don’t think Clement brought her over here so that she could run like she did last time. She’s Got You is another talented runner trying North American turf for the first time, while Madita has one great performance already, albeit at a lower level.
Race 8
$56,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Non-Winners of One Race, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is an interesting race that could go to a few different runners here. That being said, I have a pretty strong conviction about my top choice, and my top four feels good as well:
2- Big Thicket
This horse was entered in a race at this level on Friday, as a part of a Rudy Rodriguez entry. He scratched him that day, and the other part of the entry won. That indicates that Rodriguez considers both of them highly and didn’t want them competing when he could collect two purses instead. He was excellent in his last start at a lower level, and performed well enough to appear better than most of the other runners in here. Irad Ortiz stays on, and I love this horse’s chances.
7- Quickflash
His last race was simply bizarre, as he seemed to fade badly while contending for the lead before charging down the center of the track to pass fellow runner Tale of the Union for second. It would’ve been strange if had truly run poorly, because this horse always seems to run well. He’s entering his second race off the layoff for John Kimmel, and Junior Alvarado stays to ride.
8- Tale of the Union
I didn’t know Bob Baffert was allowed to train NY-breds. That’s annoying, I don’t like that. Anyway, this horse has run high speed figures in both of his races this year, but he hasn’t run well, if that makes sense. His last race may have been a result of the sloppy track, and he has a right to win here, but I just like others at similar odds.
1- Giant Shoes
This colt appears to be a little out of her depth, but it feels like Brad Cox is pointing him for the dirt. He has excellent numbers transferring from turf to dirt and with horses entering their second races off layoffs, and he hasn’t raced on the dirt since February. For a three-year-old, that’s a lot of time to improve, and maybe this one fits here more than it appears on paper.
Order: 2 7 8 1
I really like Big Thicket here, as his excellent performance last time out has been reinforced by Rudy Rodriguez’s handling of him. Quickflash nevers runs poorly, and I personally appreciated her persistence when defeating Tale of the Union, who I have finishing third. Giant Shoes may be a sneaky runner for Brad Cox, and that rarely occurs.
Race 9
$80,000 Optional Claiming, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf
This is another wide open turf event that will go to the runner that gets the best trip. All of the horses I mentioned in my top four are immensely talented, and differentiating between them is akin to splitting hairs:
6- Majestic Dunhill
Anyone questioning this horse’s last race would also have to question Therapist, a very talented turf runner that ran an identical trip to this one and won the photo. George Weaver is hot at Belmont, and I’m not too afraid of Reylu Gutierrez, because I’d leave him on the horse too if he ran like that. He’s a versatile runner that can run equally well on turf and dirt, and he’s been in excellent condition for a while now.
10- Chewing Gum
It looks like this horse has found his distance. After competing fairly well at five furlongs and a mile on the turf for most of his career, Bill Mott thought to cut the difference and try him at six furlongs. He closed impressively in the stretch to win by nearly a length. He’s going an extra furlong today and stepping up in class, but this five-year-old is a runner that always tries.
7- Front Run the Fed
The last time this colt got to two races in a row without a layoff, he improved immensely to win an optional claiming competition by 13 lengths. Since then, he’s gone from layoff to layoff, and struggled a little back in May as a beaten favorite at Churchill. He’s raced better in the past, but I’m very curious to see what this horse can do when putting races together.
2- Delaware (GB)
In his first race in the country, this Chad Brown trainee never really fired while finishing eighth behind fellow runner Majestic Dunhill. Brown is switching things up a little this time around, adding blinkers and Lasix in an attempt to improve his chances. I think this horse improves in his second start here, despite his previous struggles at seven furlongs.
Order: 6 10 7 2
Majestic Dunhill may have run her best race last time, but it was a visually impressive return to the turf that I can’t ignore. Chewing Gum is stepping up in class here for Bill Mott, and he’s demonstrated enough ability at lower levels to make a case here. Front Run the Fed should give a good account of himself after finally getting a second start off of a layoff, while Delaware should have a similar experience in his second race in the country.
Race 10
$53,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Breds, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
This is a wide open race for handicappers to go hunting for long shots. This is actually a fairly talented group at this level, and there at least six horses with a chance. Unfortunately, I’ve limited myself to four, and I’m a stickler for the arbitrary rules I make up:
8- Striking Causeway
This colt ran very well in his last start, turning back a horse while dueling before losing a three-horse photo for first. That was her first race off the layoff for trainer Robert Falcone, and Joel Rosario is curious enough to stick around and ride again.
5- Spiritual King
There’s not much wrong with this horse on paper, as he’s run well several times at Gulfstream. My question is obvious: Should I trust Gregory Sacco with a horse formerly trained by Todd Pletcher? Stepping into statebred competition is the right move, and Irad Ortiz is a fantastic addition. It’s a bit of a chance, but I feel comfortable considering him here.
7- Sanctuary City
There’s not much wrong with this horse on paper, as he ran very well in an open company maiden special weight at Aqueduct. My question is obvious: Should I trust James Ferraro with a horse formerly trained by Chris Englehart? Stepping into statebred competition is the right move, though Kendrick Carmouche isn’t the most encouraging addition. The horse is excellent, but the trainer is winless at Belmont.
1- Silver Token
Horacio DePaz has been on fire at Belmont, and he handles this former Linda Rice trainee confidently and steps him up into maiden special weight competition. He’s shown flashes of ability, though the two second place finishes were both very consistent in a bad way. Jose Lezcano stays on, and while DePaz isn’t great off this layoff, that hasn’t mattered so much recently.
Order: 8 5 7 1
Striking Causeway is one of the few contenders here that isn’t undergoing some drastic change, and I think he’s likely to succeed here. Spiritual King and Sanctuary City are both going through trainer downgrades, and while they both have a solid chance, those changes might hurt them. Silver Token’s trainer change is a lateral one, and DePaz is faring a lot better than Linda Rice lately, which makes him a viable value play.