Belmont Analysis: Sunday, July 12, 2020

This is a fair day of racing, and the weather is much improved, so Paddy’s Picks is returning to Belmont today. Let’s take a look at an occasionally interesting card.

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Race 1

$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

This is always a difficult race to handicap because it’s simply hard to project. The favorite will have to run down a credible front runner, and it’s a fight that can go either way, and may even open the door for others. My top four:

5- Sadie Lady

As an infamous front running jockey, Kendrick Carmouche won’t have to reach with this one. Before the layoff, she was running exceptionally well at lower levels, and finally reached this allowance condition in her first start off the layoff. That race had a sort of accordion effect in the stretch, with the deep closers and front runners switching positions late. This is her second start off the layoff for Rob Atras, and she’ll likely get an easy lead here, which makes her dangerous.

4- Into Chocolate

Bill Mott’s first move was to run this filly on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs in February. That’s a funky move, though I can’t fault based on the way she ran that day, closing very fast to take second in an ungraded stakes race. This is her first race off the layoff, and Jose Ortiz takes the mount. She has a great chance here.

1- Fair Regis

It’s been several years now, and I still don’t quite understand why they named a female horse after my all-boys alma mater. This runner’s name has elicited some rather embittered responses from myself and several of my former classmates, but that doesn’t mean she’s not a credible runner. She was apparently better than the feed Jason Servis provided, as she ran well in her first start for Rob Atras last month. She hasn’t had a bad performance in a long time, and for bettors seeing a steady option, the search ends with her.

6- Phantom Shot

This Maryland shipper wins sparingly, but she fits in this field based on her speed figures. She made her last start back in December at Laurel and hasn’t raced since, but enters Edward DeLauro’s barn for her Belmont debut. The trainer’s not great, and Reylu Gutierrrez is a bad sign in this context (and several other contexts), but her form from last year is actually reasonable for this race.

Order: 5 4 1 6

I bet on Sadie Lady in her last start and lost money, but I think she’ll rebound here, so I’m taking her again. Into Chocolate is very reasonable, and she has every chance to run down the front runner, and Fair Regis isn’t far behind her despite her longer odds. Phantom Shot is well named, because she technically has a chance but needs to do a little more to win.

 

Race 2 (FULL ANALYSIS)

$53,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

This might be my favorite race of the entire meet so far. Every single horse has an interesting angle, and I’m intensely curious to see how it plays out on the track. As a result, I analyzed every horse individually in post position order:

1- Hold the Salsa

Richard Lugovich has entered one horse in a race this year. Copper Chalice was entered on June 5 at Belmont for his first career start. Romero Maragh was riding. The gelding won a three-way photo at the wire and paid $151. You better have two bucks on Hold the Salsa, because Lugovich might as well be a Stoic waiting around like this to enter his second horse of the year. 

2- Bustin Bieber

This is the only horse in the race I felt comfortable tossing, and even he has an angle going for him. He did run in open company last time out and was blown out by Roderick, who would similarly destroy every horse in this field. However, trainer Amira Chicakly hasn’t been great at this meet thus far, and the fact that she can’t get much better than Kendrick Carmouche is somewhat concerning.

3- Eight Weeks Long

I was about to toss this horse until I looked at the results from yesterday’s card. For several months now, this colt has had a training partner named Infringement. They have nearly identical work tabs and have had the exact same schedule since May 12. Yesterday, Jose Lezcano guided Infringment home for Hennig’s first win of the Belmont meet at 10-1 odds. In this race, Lezcano is riding for Hennig again on the other half of his first time starter duo. I can’t help but notice that he’s finally splitting them up when it comes time to race.

4- Cotton

He’s been working brilliantly in the mornings for Mark Casse, he has a 402 Tomlinson for the distance, and Luis Saez is riding. Some horses require some work to decipher, but this horse’s value jumps off the page.

5- Perfect Munnings

Want to hear a weird stat? Before going to Keeneland and Delaware earlier this week, Irad Ortiz had only won 2 of his previous 20 starts at Belmont. Now, he’s still likely going to win the riding title, and he recorded two wins this weekend at other tracks, but he’s not winning on everything that moves as he had earlier in the meet. This colt still has a 413 Tomlinson for the distance, and Gary Gallo’s patience with firsters is undermined by the fact that he’s called on for Ortiz’s services. However, I suspect he may be a tad overbet.

6- Thin White Duke

In the spring of 2018, Philip Gleaves won two races at Belmont in the span of three weeks. He didn’t win another race until last month, but hey, probability says there’s another one coming. This gelding performed well Under Pressure in her first start, closing mildly to finish third in the very first race analyzed by Paddy’s Picks. It’s a (Space) Oddity to see Gleaves win with two-year-olds these days, but his runner has a 414 Tomlinson for the distance and is one of two horses in this race with experience, which may give him the edge necessary to win.

7- Lookin for Trouble

Michael Maker is usually patient with his first time starters, but Jose Ortiz is only five wins short of the riding title. This horse has some very quick workouts and a 414 Tomlinson for the distance, which makes him a contender in his first start.

8- War Call

Here’s another colt with excellent workouts, and in a race full of competent trainers, Brad Cox may just be the best of the bunch. Javier Castellano jumps aboard after taking two grade stakes at Keeneland yesterday, giving this horse an even stronger chance here.

Order: 3 4 8 1

My top four is more of a guess than a prediction, because any of these eight runners could win this race. This should be a very interesting race, and isn’t anything like what I usually expect from a statebred maiden race. 

 

Race 3

$16,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, One Mile on the Dirt

Well, this race is much less compelling. It’s technically an open company event, but every runner was bred in New York. This was a real bummer to handicap after so much fun analysis on the previous race. My lukewarm top four on a race I would never seriously play:

6- Wear My Ring

This horse’s turf start last time out didn’t do much besides giving her a race off the layoff. She returns to the dirt for Todd Pletcher for her first start as a three-year-old on the surface. I believe that she’ll improve based on the time she’s had to develop. Kendrick Carmouche stays on to ride, which us strange for Todd Pletcher but alright here because she’s only had one jockey previously.

7- Intoxicologist

This four-year-old is fairly obvious in this spot based on her last two dirt performances, two fourth place finishes at higher levels of racing that this one. However, those performances were rather unremarkable, and while she may have enough to outrun the competition, I think it’s worth taking a hacen against her.

3- First Dawn (SCRATCHED)

This horse is one of the most frustrating runners I’ve seen in a while. In 19 starts, she finished in the money 11 times, but she only has one win to show for it. Andrew Williams is the owner and trainer, so he’s fine with the minor purses, and it’s rather easy to slot this horse in third.

4- Desbordes

Her best performance recently was a wire-to-wire maiden victory under slow fractions. That is still her only win, and demonstrates that she’s the type to fold under adverse conditions.

Order: 6 7 3 4 (Note: The 3, First Dawn, is scratched.)

Intoxicologist strikes me as a little too obvious, so I’m taking a small chance against him with Wear My Ring, who should improve here from two to three. First Dawn is a very annoying horse with an aversion to the winner’s circle, while Desbordes appears to be a step below.

 

Race 4

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Widener Turf

There were a few long shots that interest me in this one, which makes up for the fact that it’s a pretty ordinary race. I think the favorites are beatable, while some of the long shots may improve to a point that they can contend. My top four:

7- Sidd Finch

I’m not totally sure, but I think this gelding is sitting on a race. For some reason, George Weaver is the only man on Earth with the audacity to put him on the turf, his preferred surface, having trained him way back in 2017 as well. In his two starts on the grass last year, he struggled behind a front runner over slow fractions in September and followed it up with another excusable performance, getting bumped at the beginning and effectively getting taken out of contention. He’s coming off a very long layoff, but Luis Saez is a telling sign that he’s ready. Weaver doesn’t call on him often, but when they connect, the results have been very profitable. He’s worth a shot here.

3- Klickitat

In six turf starts, he’s finished second four times, making him a very frustrating and vulnerable favorite. Jimmy Jerkens has been ice cold at this meet as well, and doesn’t do well off of very long layoffs like this one. He’s a credible runner, but I’m only going to place him as high as he’s proven to be comfortable.

5- Mitzrayim

I like this gelding’s last start, and I think he can build off of it. That day, he was the only horse closing in a race that devolved into a merry-go-round, and this time around, he may get a scenario that better favors his running style at a longer distance. He’s an interesting long shot, though there’s not a ton to go on.

10- Michael’s Bad Boy

Four horses in this race are coming out of the same race, and I consider this runner the best of the quartet. In that start, he closed very well to finish second in his first start off the layoff, and in his second start, he may be able to improve.

Order: 7 3 5 10

I’ll take a chance with Sidd Finch here, a runner I think is due for a big run off the layoff. Klickitat is a sensible favorite, but I think he’s a little prone to hanging, and that type of runner is worth wagering against. Mitzrayim is another long shot that could improve here after a good last start while Michael’s Bad Boy performed better than three other horses in this race in his last start.

 

Race 5

$35,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf

This is an excellent claiming race on the turf, as most of the runners are only a slight step below allowance competition. I had a little trouble when handicapping, because I see a lot of promise in several runners. My best attempt is below:

8- Bourbon Currency

Jose Ortiz chose to ride this gelding over Variant Perception, which is a significant choice to make. His last start aboard this runner was on a race day that was extremely friendly to front runners, and he struggled to make up ground but still finished creditably. John Kimmel gives him some class relief here, and he’s extremely dangerous in a pace scenario that will benefit him far more than in his last start.

1- Onthewaytoneverlnd (Ire)

Ward’s gelding is taking a reasonable class drop here to a level when he fits very well. He’s coming off a long layoff, but Ward tends to have them ready and recruits Javier Castellano to ride. He has an excellent chance in this race after facing much tougher competition in previous starts.

9- Le General

Linda Rice knows what she’s doing here. This colt ran some of her best career starts in a limited stint on the turf last year, and Rice claimed him for $20,000 on the dirt when he’s probably worth more on the turf. I love his chances her switching surfaces in his second start off the layoff.

2- Bourbon Mission

I predicted that this horse would outrun his odds in his last start, and I was correct, as he finished second behind Fast Getaway at 14-1. That race was against fellow NY-breds, but it was definitely of a similar quality to this race. He’ll need a pace to run at, but it’s likely he’ll get one, which makes him an interesting outsider here.

Order: 8 1 9 2

This isn’t the type of race I would bet to win, as my top three are all equally promising in my head. Bourbon Currency is sitting on a very big performance after being compromised by a terrible pace scenario last time out. Meanwhile, Onthewaytoneverlnd is dropping in class and should be extremely effective at this level. Le General is an excellent horse that hasn’t really had much experience on the turf, but he’s run well enough to win this race in the past. This should be an excellent race that will give several runners a chance to win in the stretch.

 

Race 6

$56,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf

Here’s yet another big field on the closing day at Belmont. Not only is it a large field, but a competitive one, as there’s not one noticeable favorite but several key contenders. My top four:

10- Violent Point

Am I reaching today? It’s kind of hard to tell, but some days have more vulnerable favorites than others. This filly ran into a very hot pace in her last race and understandably lost a step in the stretch while getting swallowed up by closers. There’s not nearly as much pace in this race, and she should be able to have a little more staying power in the stretch under jockey Junior Alvarado. 

11- Silky Blue (SCRATCHED)

She beat a pretty weak field of maidens last time out, but the 72 BSF indicates that she fits here. That being said, a 72 is likely her ceiling because she earned it under perfect conditions against lesser competitors. This is a tougher field and she’s breaking from the 11 post, which makes her difficult to support on top.

1- Dancingwthdaffodls

This mare has run very well recently, but she’s really struggled to find the winner’s circle. Jose Ortiz wouldn’t waste his time riding for Eduardo Jones, but even still, it’s easy to project a good performance and very difficult to project a victory.

2- Moana’s Tale

Danny Gargan’s filly is vaguely interesting here. Entering her in an ungraded stakes at Gulfstream was a pretty bold move from Danny Gargan, and she didn’t really show much improvement from two to three that day, but she was chasing Cheermeister alone on the lead and understandably wilted. Gargan cuts back to a sprint and recruits Kendrick Carmouche to ride, which means she’ll be forwarded placed. I think it’s reasonable to suspect she’ll improve a little here.

Order: 10 11 1 2 (The 11, Silky Blue, is scratched.)

I think Violent Point has a chance of wiring this field under much softer fractions than the ones she ran under last time out. Silky Blue is coming off a nice maiden win, but I have to question if she can repeat that performance. Dancingwthfaffodls is a killer when it comes to win-betting, but she has to be included underneath. Moana’s Tale is an intriguing three-year-old that can take a step forward here.

Race 7

$16,000 Claiming Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

I’m starting to really dislike these conditional claiming races, but there were a few interesting runners in this one, so I managed to persevere. My top four:

7- Violent Delights

I liked this horse last time but was scared that he hadn’t won a race since 2017. That fear was valid, but not my much. He showed real interest chasing down Invest in the stretch and just missed. He still hasn’t won since 2017, but based on that last performance, I don’t care as much now. Junior Alvarado returns to ride, and he could be a serious contender here in his second race off the layoff.

2- Bobbyfromthepalm

This gelding definitely exceeded expectations in his last start, blowing out an open company maiden field at Aqueduct in December. Now, I think you could put a number on my back in December at Aqueduct and I’d have a chance at show money, but he did prove to be far superior to the field. This is his first race off a long layoff for George Weaver, who has done little wrong as of late. Manny Franco returns for a horse that has a quick turn of foot that could put him in contention on first asking off the layoff.

3- Prince of New York (SCRATCHED)

In his last start, Violent Delights turned the tables on this runner and finished ahead of him by nearly six lengths. That makes him difficult to support here for the top spot, but Jeremiah Englehart knows how to prepare his horses, and he could improve in his second start off the layoff.

10- Runningforhome

This gelding intrigues me as a slightly odd runner. Why would J T Servis ship this horse out of PennNational. He’s clearly a little overmatched, but that hasn’t stopped him from making the move and recruiting local jockey Kendrick Carmouche to ride. Andrew Beyer discusses a concept known as the “logic of the illogic,” which states that there are often reasons a horse is entered in improbable spots, but those reasons are hidden to the bettors. Servis may know something I don’t here, and he has the statistics to earn a sliver of my trust.

Order: 7 2 3 10 (Note: The 3, Prince of New York, is scratched.)

I’m pretty confident in my exacta here, as I think that Violent Delights and Bobbyfromthepalm will be the best prepared to handle this field. Prince of New York couldn’t keep up with Violent Delights last time, and I’m not sure she can rebound effectively here. Runningforhome is just a perplexing horse, so I decided to throw him in there.

Race 8

River Memories Stakes (Ungraded) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Widener Turf

This will be the last feature race of the Belmont meet, and it’s a very competitive stakes. The most challenging aspect here will be the mile and a half, which is the type of distance specifically built for a certain type of horse. I tried to separate those types of horses when forming my top four:

4- Lemon Zip

There’s only one horse in this race that is convincing me that she wants to run a mile and a half, and it’s this Niall Saville trainee. She’s never finished out of the money at this distance in five attempts, and some of her best starts have come going this far as well. Tyler Conner is making a trip to New York specifically to ride this mare, and I think she’ll be a decent price under optimal conditions.

6- Olympic Games (Fr)

She ran very well in her stateside debut down in Florida, and Christophe Clement is carefully stepping her up and stretching her out to her longest distance ever. Based on her last performance, she’s a strong contender in here. Irad Ortiz signs on to ride and she may have learned a thing or two in her first race over here.

9- Wegetsdamunnys

This runner was overlooked in her last race and made bettors pay, winning by a nose in a blanket finish. In her only attempt at this distance, she finished eighth by two lengths in an ungraded stakes at Aqueduct. She finished behind Lemon Zip that day, but turf races like these often have very compact finishes. She’s in great condition and should have a say here.

3- Beau Belle

I’m not questioning the ability of this mare, but I, not too sure this is the race she’s best suited to. She finished fourth by a neck behind fellow runner Wegetsdamunnys in her last start, and she could be rounding into form in her second start off the layoff. However, she’s never finished in the money at this distance and she’s winless in five starts on the Belmont turf.

Order: 4 6 9 3

In this wide open race, Lemon Zip makes the most convincing case as a runner that can excel at the mile and a half distance. Olympic Games and Wegetsdamunnys should also do well here, while Beau Belle has the ability but may not be as well placed.

Race 9

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf

I don’t like a single horse in this race. Nothing stands out and I’d sooner bet that they all fall down before I picked a single horse to win. My top four:

5- Dream Chasing

This filly struggled to get going in her first off the layoff and finished fifth. That was her maiden claiming debut and while it wasn’t too encouraging, it’s reasonable to expect her to bounce back in her second race off the layoff.

3- Magical Romance

On speed figures, this horse is the best in the field, but she always finds a way to lose. She’s 0-for-17 now and her trainer is 0-for-9 in 2020. She should run fairly well, but she just doesn’t win.

7- Painite

Doesn’t it feel right that Irad Ortiz would win the last race of the meet? David Donk is winless when cutting horses back in distance and he’s somehow winless with Irad Ortiz at Belmont. I don’t know how those two stats are possible, but if they’re going to be broken, the first win will come against this field.

6- High School Crush

This horse’s first turf start was relatively successful, but Gary Sciacca is 0-for-31 in turf sprints. She should run well enough here and may even have enough to win, but I can’t support her for the top spot.

Order: 5 3 7 6

Saratoga awaits.